Try the model
UAPB

Arkansas-Pine Bluff 7 at TCU 39

TCU
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadUAPB aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreUAPB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:04 · Myles Pini punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior+47.8Home team on offense+0.7Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 3:40: Jonathan Song 36 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Jonathan Song 19 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 13:46: Jonathan Song 34 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:31: KeShawn Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Piwniczka KICK) — UAPB win probability +1.7 pts (now 2%) (top driver: UAPB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:07: Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 37 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UAPB made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 7:53TCU 4th & 6 at UAPB 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:34UAPB 4th & 5 at UAPB 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:04UAPB 4th & 7 at UAPB 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UAPB 4th & 14 at UAPB 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:13TCU 4th & 3 at TCU 36, up 10
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:33UAPB 4th & 11 at UAPB 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:19TCU 4th & 17 at TCU 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:18UAPB 4th & 8 at UAPB 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:40TCU 4th & 13 at UAPB 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:36UAPB 4th & 5 at TCU 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:46TCU 4th & 8 at UAPB 17, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:46UAPB 4th & 3 at UAPB 32, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:22TCU 4th & 7 at UAPB 21, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:22UAPB 4th & 5 at UAPB 30, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:35TCU 4th & 8 at UAPB 38, up 22
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:21UAPB 4th & 3 at UAPB 37, down 22
    Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00UAPB 4th & 7 at UAPB 28, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:03TCU 4th & 6 at midfield, up 22
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:53UAPB 4th & 12 at UAPB 16, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:46TCU 4th & 6 at UAPB 18, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:15UAPB 4th & 6 at UAPB 20, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UAPB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:59TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 1:31UAPB Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:07TCU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:48TCU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UAPBDrive 1INT
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
99.8%
Skyler Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
99.8%
Taeyler Porter run for 4 yds to the ArkPB 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+9
99.8%
Skyler Perry run for 9 yds to the ArkPB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Skyler Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
DeJuan Miller run for 4 yds to the ArkPB 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
99.8%
Skyler Perry pass complete to Tyrin Ralph for 8 yds to the ArkPB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
99.8%
KeShawn Williams run for 15 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.8%
Skyler Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-5
99.8%
Skyler Perry run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkPB 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 47
0
99.8%
Skyler Perry pass intercepted Ar'Darius Washington return for no gain to the TCU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.7%
Alex Delton pass complete to TreVontae Hights for 2 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+8
99.7%
Alex Delton run for 8 yds to the ArkPB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
99.7%
Alex Delton run for 10 yds to the ArkPB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
99.7%
Alex Delton pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 12 yds to the ArkPB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.7%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 19Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+9
99.7%
Darius Anderson run for 9 yds to the ArkPB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
99.7%
Alex Delton pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 4 yds to the ArkPB 6Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.7%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q1 8:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.7%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to TreVontae HightsSimilar
Q1 7:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
99.7%
Jonathan Song 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Taeyler Porter run for 4 yds to the ArkPB 29Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.7%
Taeyler Porter run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 32Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
99.7%
Skyler Perry pass complete to Tyrin Ralph for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkPB 30Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+16
99.6%
Myles Pini punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 48 , Jalen Reagor returns for 16 yds to the TCU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · 46 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+47
99.6%
Alex Delton pass complete to TreVontae Hights for 47 yds TreVontae Hights fumbled, forced by Blake Conner, recovered by ArkPB Shawn Steele , return for 3 yds to the ArkPB 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
99.6%
Taeyler Porter run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkPB 6Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 13
OWN 6
+6
99.6%
Taeyler Porter run for 6 yds to the ArkPB 12Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 7
OWN 12
0
99.6%
Shannon Patrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 7
OWN 12
0
99.6%
Myles Pini punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:50100% → 100%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
99.5%
TCU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+2
99.5%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+12
99.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 12 yds to the ArkPB 49Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+17
99.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Darius Anderson for 17 yds to the ArkPB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.6%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
99.6%
Darius Anderson run for 7 yds to the ArkPB 25Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+5
99.5%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the ArkPB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
99.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to TreVontae Hights for 9 yds to the ArkPB 11Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+4
99.5%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the ArkPB 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.5%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the ArkPB 5Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
99.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Artayvious Lynn for 4 yds to the ArkPB 1Similar
Q1 0:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.5%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd for a TD ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 0:541% → 1%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
99.5%
ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArkPB 16Similar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+2
99.5%
Taeyler Porter run for 2 yds to the ArkPB 18Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+4
99.5%
KeShawn Williams run for 4 yds to the ArkPB 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+12
99.5%
Shannon Patrick pass complete to Jeremy Brown for 12 yds to the ArkPB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.4%
KeShawn Williams run for 2 yds to the ArkPB 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+14
99.4%
KeShawn Williams run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
99.4%
Shannon Patrick pass incomplete to DeJuan Miller, broken up by Vernon ScottSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
50
-15
99.4%
Williams, Kesha rush for 1 yard to the TCU49 (Gaines, Innis), PENALTY UAPB illegal block (Brown,Jeremy) 15 yards to the UAPB35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 35
+11
99.5%
Shannon Patrick pass complete to Taeyler Porter for 11 yds to the ArkPB 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
99.5%
Shannon Patrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
99.5%
Myles Pini punt for 41 yds , Jalen Reagor returns for no gain to the TCU 11 Jalen Reagor fumbled, recovered by TCU Ar'Darius WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
99.3%
Derius Davis run for 3 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
99.3%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+15
99.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to TreVontae Hights for 15 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
99.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to TreVontae Hights for 7 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+1
99.3%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TCU 37Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 2
OWN 37
-1
99.3%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
99.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyrin Ralph at the ArkPB 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
99.2%
Taeyler Porter run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 27Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-4
99.2%
Skyler Perry sacked by Garret Wallow for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkPB 23Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
99.2%
Skyler Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 11
OWN 23
+17
99.2%
Myles Pini punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkPB 44 , Jalen Reagor returns for 17 yds to the ArkPB 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.1%
Alex Delton pass complete to Derius Davis for 2 yds to the ArkPB 42Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
99.1%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-9
99.1%
Alex Delton sacked by Jordan Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
99.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyrin Ralph at the ArkPB 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
99.1%
Taeyler Porter run for no gain to the ArkPB 6Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+3
99.1%
Skyler Perry pass complete to Harry Ballard III for 3 yds to the ArkPB 9Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 7
OWN 9
-1
99.1%
Skyler Perry pass complete to Jeremy Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkPB 8Similar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 8
OWN 8
+26
99.1%
Myles Pini punt for 34 yds , Jalen Reagor returns for 26 yds to the ArkPB 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2899% → 99%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
99.0%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the ArkPB 11Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
99.0%
Alex Delton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 5
OPP 11
-8
98.9%
Alex Delton sacked by Kolby Watts for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkPB 19Similar
Q2 3:40
4TH & 13
OPP 19
+36
99.1%
Jonathan Song 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 13INT
11 plays · 47 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
98.9%
Taeyler Porter run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 20Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+9
98.9%
Shannon Patrick pass complete to Tyrin Ralph for 9 yds to the ArkPB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
98.9%
Taeyler Porter run for 6 yds to the ArkPB 35Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
98.9%
Shannon Patrick pass incomplete to Tyrin Ralph, broken up by La'Kendrick Van ZandtSimilar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+24
98.9%
Shannon Patrick pass complete to Taeyler Porter for 24 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
98.8%
Shannon Patrick pass incomplete to Tyrin RalphSimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
98.8%
KeShawn Williams run for 2 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+7
98.8%
Shannon Patrick pass complete to Tyrin Ralph for 7 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-4
98.8%
ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+58
98.8%
Shannon Patrick pass intercepted Trevon Moehrig return for 58 yds to the ArkPB 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14FG
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:2699% → 99%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
99.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkPB 37Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+15
98.9%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Davis, Derius, PENALTY UAPB pass interference (Washington, M) 15 yards to the UAPB22, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
99.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 11 yds to the ArkPB 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
99.0%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Reagor, Jalen, PENALTY UAPB pass interference (Washington, M) 9 yards to the UAPB2, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
99.2%
Jonathan Song 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15FG
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:1099% → 99%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+54
98.9%
Alex Delton run for 54 yds to the ArkPB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.0%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the ArkPB 17Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
99.0%
Alex Delton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
98.9%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+34
99.4%
Jonathan Song 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.1%
Taeyler Porter run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 28Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.0%
Shannon Patrick pass complete to Tyrin Ralph for 4 yds to the ArkPB 32Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.0%
Shannon Patrick pass incomplete to Harry Ballard IIISimilar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.1%
Myles Pini punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 3:5099% → 100%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
99.4%
Alex Delton pass complete to TreVontae Hights for 3 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+6
99.4%
Alex Delton pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 6 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+18
99.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 18 yds to the TCU 46 Sewo Olonilua fumbled, forced by Nijul Canada, recovered by TCU Derius Davis for a 1ST down , return for no gain to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
99.4%
Alex Delton run for 10 yds to the ArkPB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.4%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
99.4%
Alex Delton pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 3 yds to the ArkPB 41Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+17
99.4%
Alex Delton pass complete to TreVontae Hights for 17 yds to the ArkPB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.4%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to TreVontae Hights, broken up by Shawn SteeleSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
99.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 21Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
99.4%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
99.5%
Jonathan Song 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.4%
Skyler Perry pass complete to Harry Ballard III for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkPB 24Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
99.4%
KeShawn Williams run for 4 yds to the ArkPB 28Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.4%
KeShawn Williams run for 2 yds to the ArkPB 30Similar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Myles Pini punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd to the TCU 36Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
99.5%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to John Stephens Jr., broken up by Monroe BeardSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+24
99.5%
Alex Delton pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 24 yds to the ArkPB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
99.5%
Alex Delton run for 2 yds to the ArkPB 38Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
99.5%
Alex Delton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
99.5%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Jalen Reagor, broken up by Stanleigh BentleySimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
99.5%
Jordy Sandy punt for 25 yds, downed at the ArkPB 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
99.4%
Taeyler Porter run for 17 yds to the ArkPB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.4%
DeJuan Miller run for 1 yd to the ArkPB 31Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
99.4%
Skyler Perry run for 5 yds to the ArkPB 36Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+1
99.4%
Taeyler Porter run for 1 yd to the ArkPB 37Similar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+2
99.4%
Myles Pini punt for 30 yds , Jalen Reagor returns for 2 yds to the TCU 37 Jalen Reagor fumbled, forced by Paul Todd, recovered by ArkPB Isaac PeppersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 21TD
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:311% → 2%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+36
99.5%
Shannon Patrick pass complete to Harry Ballard III for 36 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.8%
KeShawn Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Piwniczka KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:1899% → 100%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.6%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
98.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Dylan Thomas for 7 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+9
98.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 9 yds to the ArkPB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
98.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to TreVontae Hights for 9 yds to the ArkPB 37Similar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+37
99.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 37 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:071% → 0%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.5%
Shannon Patrick pass complete to Jeremy Brown for 4 yds to the ArkPB 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
99.5%
Taeyler Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkPB 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Shannon Patrick pass incomplete to Harry Ballard III, broken up by Kee'yon StewartSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Myles Pini punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.6%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.6%
ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, personal foul (Zion Farmer) to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-8
99.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 18
OWN 27
0
99.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for no gain to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 18
OWN 27
+19
99.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 19 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
99.7%
Max Duggan sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 41 Max Duggan fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+9
99.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 6
50
0
99.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 6
50
0
99.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkPB 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.6%
KeShawn Williams run for no gain to the ArkPB 18Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
99.6%
Skyler Perry pass incomplete to KeShawn WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 10
OWN 18
-2
99.6%
Skyler Perry sacked by Ross Blacklock for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkPB 16Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 12
OWN 16
+1
99.6%
Myles Pini punt for 38 yds , Jalen Reagor returns for 1 yd to the TCU 47 Jalen Reagor fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26FG
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
99.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 8 yds to the ArkPB 45Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+5
99.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the ArkPB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
99.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 18 yds to the ArkPB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
99.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the ArkPB 18Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
99.6%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
99.6%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
99.9%
Griffin Kell 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
99.8%
Omar Allen run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 19Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+1
99.8%
Skyler Perry run for 1 yd to the ArkPB 20Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Skyler Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Myles Pini punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 4:14100% → 100%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 6 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+15
99.9%
Darwin Barlow run for no gain to the ArkPB 46 for a 1ST down ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, personal foul (Tyler Smith) to the ArkPB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
99.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 7 yds to the ArkPB 32Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+3
99.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the ArkPB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 5 yds to the ArkPB 24Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+14
99.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 14 yds to the ArkPB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 2 yds to the ArkPB 8Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
100.0%
Darwin Barlow run for 8 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
Taylor Holston run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkPB 23Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-1
100.0%
Taylor Holston run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkPB 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:31
KeShawn Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Piwniczka KICK)
-1.7
TD · Q3 0:07
Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 37 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
+1
FG · Q3 13:46
Jonathan Song 34 yd FG GOOD
+0.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com