2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreOKST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:33 · Tom Hutton punt for 33 yds, downed at the WVirg 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:23: Jarret Doege pass complete to George Campbell for 34 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +9.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:54: Evan Staley 29 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +8.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:23: Dru Brown pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +25.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- FG · Q4 6:18: Matt Ammendola 22 yd FG GOOD — OKST win probability +8.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:43: Timeout WEST VIRGINIA, clock 01:43 — OKST win probability +12.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 15:00WVU 4th & 2 at WVU 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snapGo for it34.8%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.8%average punt
- Q1 7:41OKST 4th & 1 at WVU 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.8%59% to convertField goal62.4%−0.494% to makePunt61.2%−1.6average punt
- Q1 4:03WVU 4th & 12 at OKST 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snapGo for it34.5%−0.323% to convertField goalTheir call34.9%56% to makePunt34.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 4:03OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 39, up 7Close callPunted · 65.6% before the snapGo for it65.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.2%−0.6average punt
- Q2 10:33WVU 4th & 6 at OKST 6, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snapGo for it34.8%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call35.0%91% to makePunt29.2%−5.8average punt
- Q2 10:33OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 33, up 4Close callPunted · 61.0% before the snapGo for it61.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 5:18OKST 4th & 1 at WVU 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.7%70% to convertField goal50.4%−3.328% to makePunt50.8%−2.9average punt
- Q2 1:33OKST 4th & 24 at OKST 46, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snapGo for it47.3%−2.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.4%average punt
- Q2 0:32WVU 4th & 15 at WVU 16, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snapGo for it42.5%−4.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.8%average punt
- Q3 10:52OKST 4th & 14 at WVU 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snapGo for it43.4%−2.718% to convertField goalTheir call46.1%62% to makePunt38.3%−7.8average punt
- Q3 10:47WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 31, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 46.9% before the snapGo for it48.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.9%−1.8average punt
- Q3 9:27OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 46, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 55.7% before the snapGo for it56.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.4%−3.0average punt
- Q3 0:54WVU 4th & 11 at OKST 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.3% before the snapGo for it49.0%−2.522% to convertField goalTheir call51.5%86% to makePunt38.9%−12.6average punt
- Q4 11:18WVU 4th & 5 at WVU 16, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snapGo for it31.1%−0.740% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.7%average punt
- Q4 6:18OKST 4th & 1 at WVU 5, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 6.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 75.2% before the snapGo for it74.8%67% to convertField goalTheir call68.9%−6.092% to makePunt54.2%−20.7average punt
- Q4 2:42WVU 4th & 1 at OKST 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.8%71% to convertField goal16.1%−7.779% to makePunt8.7%−15.1average punt
- Q4 1:43WVU 4th & 12 at OKST 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.2%21% to convertField goal11.2%−2.077% to makePunt8.3%−4.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OKST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 7:41OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.1%97% to makeGo for two64.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:23WVU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.2%97% to makeGo for two48.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:23OKST Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.6%97% to makeGo for two63.3%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
32.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 7 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
32.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
32.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 2 yds to the WVirg 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2TD11 plays · 74 yds · 5:3167% → 68%
Q1 13:12
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+6
33.0%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 6 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
32.9%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 8 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+46
32.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for 46 yds to the WVirg 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.2%
Dru Brown pass complete to Jelani Woods for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3MISSED FG10 plays · 52 yds · 3:3233% → 33%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+20
32.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Wheaton for 20 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
33.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 9 yds to the WVirg 47Similar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
33.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 18 yds to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-7
33.8%
Jarret Doege sacked by Cameron Murray for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5FG16 plays · 60 yds · 6:3133% → 38%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
32.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to George Campbell for 9 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
33.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 17 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
35.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to George Campbell, broken up by Jarrick BernardSimilar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+11
34.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 11 yds to the OKSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
WVUDrive 7TD7 plays · 70 yds · 3:2537% → 49%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
36.7%
Doege, Jarret pass complete to James, Sam for 43 yards to the OSU27, out-of-bounds (Sterling, Tre), PENALTY WVU holding (Haskins, Jovani) 10 yards to the WVU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+30
36.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Ali Jennings for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+34
48.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to George Campbell for 34 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT13 plays · 27 yds · 3:4555% → 52%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
44.1%
Dru Brown pass complete to Landon Wolf for 16 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
42.1%
Dru Brown sacked by Shea Campbell for a loss of 8 yards to the WVirg 48Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 14
OPP 44
-10
44.6%
Brown, Dru pass complete to Stoner, Dillon for 24 yards to the WVU20 (Guzman, Noah), PENALTY OSU holding (Keyes, Marcus) 10 yards to the OSU46, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4148% → 46%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
48.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 18Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 13
OWN 18
0
47.8%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to T.J. Simmons, broken up by Tre SterlingSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
46.4%
Josh Growden punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10END OF HALF3 plays · -9 yds · 0:0754% → 50%
OKSTDrive 11FG12 plays · 45 yds · 4:0352% → 55%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
48.3%
Brown, Dru pass incomplete to Johnson,Braydon, PENALTY WVU personal foul (Pooler, Jeffery) 15 yards to the OSU43, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
46.2%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, offside defense (Reese Donahue) to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+15
45.0%
Dru Brown pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for 15 yds to the WVirg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-8
45.2%
Dru Brown sacked by Jeffery Pooler Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the WVirg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
46.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 6 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+3
45.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 3 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+4
45.5%
Josh Growden punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 26 , Dillon Stoner returns for 4 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0056% → 57%
Q3 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+11
44.3%
Dru Brown pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for 11 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
42.9%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Dillon Stoner, broken up by Jeffery Pooler Jr.Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
43.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for 9 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14FG11 plays · 73 yds · 5:4948% → 59%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+39
48.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to George Campbell for 39 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
52.1%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Sam James, broken up by Rodarius WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+13
49.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 13 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
54.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to George Campbell for 9 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 1
OPP 25
-7
54.1%
Jarret Doege sacked by Devin Harper for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 32Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+21
52.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 21 yds to the OKSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 14
OPP 15
-6
53.3%
Jarret Doege sacked by Samuela Tuihalamaka for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 21Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 20
OPP 21
+9
50.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 9 yds to the OKSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15TD14 plays · 78 yds · 4:2442% → 74%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+6
59.1%
Dru Brown pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 6 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
58.3%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 12 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
54.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 9 yds to the WVirg 45Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
53.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 9 yds to the WVirg 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+7
51.3%
Dru Brown pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 7 yds to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
25.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0035% → 32%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
35.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to George Campbell, broken up by Kolby Harvell-PeelSimilar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+5
34.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 5 yds to the WVirg 16Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
33.3%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to George Campbell, broken up by Jarrick BernardSimilar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 5
OWN 16
+7
31.7%
Josh Growden punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 46 , Dillon Stoner returns for 7 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17FG10 plays · 49 yds · 3:5674% → 83%
WVUDrive 18DOWNS17 plays · 56 yds · 4:3522% → 11%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
21.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 13 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
23.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 37Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+20
22.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Ali Jennings for 20 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
26.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to George Campbell for 1 yd to the OKSt 42Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+15
26.4%
Doege, Jarret pass incomplete to Ryan, Sean, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Williams, R.) 15 yards to the OSU27, 1ST DOWN WVU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
29.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for no gain to the OKSt 27Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-2
26.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 19Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 12
OPP 19
0
22.8%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to T.J. Simmons, broken up by Kolby Harvell-PeelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19Uncategorized3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:23
Dru Brown pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)
-25.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:43
Timeout WEST VIRGINIA, clock 01:43
-12.1
TD · Q2 5:23
Jarret Doege pass complete to George Campbell for 34 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)
+9.7