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OKST

Oklahoma State 30 at Texas 36

TEX
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:44 · Tom Hutton punt for 30 yds , Brandon Jones returns for no gain to the Texas 46 Brandon Jones fumbled, recovered by OKSt Kemah Siverand
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 185Pregame prior+1.6Home team on offense+23.9Score differential+9.0Garbage-time factor+6.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:09: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 73 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +9.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:11: Chuba Hubbard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +10.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:30: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 25 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +14.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:44: Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sam Ehlinger pass to Roschon Johnson for Two-Point Conversion) — TEX win probability +14.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:37: Chuba Hubbard run for 13 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +20.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 5OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 9:12OKST 4th & 3 at TEX 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:44TEX 4th & 5 at OKST 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:39OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:21OKST 4th & 12 at TEX 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:24TEX 4th & 3 at OKST 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    74.6%−0.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:45OKST 4th & 9 at TEX 46, down 8
    Close callPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:46TEX 4th & 11 at OKST 43, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−1.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:02OKST 4th & 2 at TEX 9, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.1%−1.6
    89% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−12.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:27OKST 4th & 1 at TEX 3, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.5%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    26.6%−5.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−21.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:03OKST 4th & 6 at TEX 27, down 5
    Close callWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.3%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    31.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−11.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:22TEX 4th & 2 at OKST 39, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−1.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:43OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 13, down 13
    Close callPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:00TEX 4th & 13 at TEX 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:44OKST 4th & 11 at OKST 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 5OKST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 14:53TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:42TEX Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:07OKST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:09TEX Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:11OKST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:30TEX Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:44TEX Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    89.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:37OKST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1FG
15 plays · 76 yds · 5:3625% → 27%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-4
74.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 17Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 14
OWN 17
+3
74.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+20
74.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 20 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
74.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 8 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+11
74.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 11 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
74.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 11 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
74.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 7 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 3
OPP 23
-4
73.9%
LD Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 27Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+23
73.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 23 yds to the Texas 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
73.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the Texas 1Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for no gain to the Texas 3 Chuba Hubbard fumbled, recovered by OKSt Spencer SandersSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
73.1%
Chuba Hubbard run for no gain to the Texas 3Similar
Q1 9:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
72.9%
Matt Ammendola 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 4:2173% → 71%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
72.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
72.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
72.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
72.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-10
72.7%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Parker Braun) to the Texas 31Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+11
71.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 11 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+13
72.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 13 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
72.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+1
72.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the OKSt 40Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
71.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
71.3%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5829% → 28%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
71.5%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
71.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for 1 yd to the OKSt 23Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
71.3%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
71.7%
Tom Hutton punt for 43 yds, downed at the Texas 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:4071% → 74%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
70.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 13 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
71.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 6 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+5
71.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
71.1%
Roschon Johnson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+14
71.0%
Roschon Johnson run for 14 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
71.3%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+4
71.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the OKSt 18Similar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+12
70.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 12 yds to the OKSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
74.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 6 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:4228% → 29%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 6 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
71.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jelani Woods for 14 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+37
71.1%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Montrell Estell return for 37 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 1:1374% → 79%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
74.0%
Jake Smith run for 8 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+3
74.0%
Roschon Johnson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
79.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 17 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:1423% → 23%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.0%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+35
76.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 35 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
75.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 8 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+6
74.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 6 yds to the Texas 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-9
75.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for a loss of 9 yards to the Texas 33Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 19
OPP 33
+11
76.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 11 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 8
OPP 22
-4
76.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
77.2%
Matt Ammendola 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:4676% → 78%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
76.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 8 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
77.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+4
76.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 4 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
78.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+1
78.2%
Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 7
50
+15
77.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 15 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
78.8%
Roschon Johnson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
78.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Malcolm EppsSimilar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+4
78.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 4 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 3
OPP 28
-1
77.7%
Roschon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:0522% → 33%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
77.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for no gain to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
76.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 42Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+55
77.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 55 yds to the Texas 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
74.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 5Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
74.6%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 7Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
66.6%
Spencer Sanders run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 0:5371% → 79%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
70.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
70.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 6 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+5
69.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 5 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
78.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 73 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11FUMBLE
10 plays · 29 yds · 1:1522% → 22%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.2%
Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
77.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jordan McCray for 10 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
77.0%
Chuba Hubbard run for 13 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
75.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 6 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-5
75.2%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Juwan Mitchell for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 46 Spencer Sanders fumbled, recovered by OKSt Spencer Sanders , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
76.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Landon WolfSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
77.9%
Tom Hutton punt for 31 yds , Jake Smith returns for no gain to the Texas 15 Jake Smith fumbled, recovered by OKStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12TD
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:2926% → 36%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
73.8%
Spencer Sanders run for 1 yd to the Texas 14Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+6
73.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for 6 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+7
74.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 7 yds to the Texas 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
70.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:5970% → 69%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
70.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the Texas 22Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+4
70.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 4 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+16
69.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 16 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
72.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 16 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
72.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Malcolm EppsSimilar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-1
72.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 43Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
70.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
68.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 26 yds, downed at the OKSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15FG
12 plays · 74 yds · 3:3431% → 43%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
68.8%
Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
68.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+3
68.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
68.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 16 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
66.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 10 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
65.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+25
63.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 10 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
63.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 5 yds to the Texas 12Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 12
-5
63.5%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Teven Jenkins) to the Texas 17Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+6
63.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 6 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+2
64.4%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the Texas 9Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+27
56.6%
Matt Ammendola 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2060% → 78%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
59.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 15 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
62.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 8 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+4
63.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
63.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 6 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+13
63.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 13 yds to the OKSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
77.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 25 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 73 yds · 2:5328% → 32%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
71.8%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Joseph Ossai for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 22Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+38
69.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 23 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
67.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+7
67.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 7 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
66.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
65.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 6 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+10
65.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 10 yds to the Texas 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
65.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 13Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
65.6%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+10
67.4%
Spencer Sanders run for 10 yds to the Texas 3Similar
Q3 2:27
4TH & 1
OPP 3
-1
68.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 2:0373% → 73%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+12
73.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 12 yds to the Texas 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
73.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 14 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
74.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+2
74.0%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+22
73.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass intercepted Kolby Harvell-Peel return for 22 yds to the Texas 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0835% → 31%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
65.0%
Chuba Hubbard run for 9 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
64.3%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
65.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for no gain to the Texas 22Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 1
OPP 22
-5
67.7%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Texas 27Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 6
OPP 27
0
69.0%
Jake McClure pass incomplete to Jelani WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:1174% → 95%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
74.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 17 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
77.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+8
77.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 8 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
78.1%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+30
80.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 26 yds to the OKSt 8 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the OKSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
80.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the OKSt 2Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.5%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sam Ehlinger pass to Roschon Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21INT
10 plays · 24 yds · 1:488% → 9%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
91.8%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 24Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
91.8%
Spencer Sanders run for 9 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
90.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
91.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 3 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+10
91.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 10 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
91.3%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Landon Wolf) to the OKSt 43Similar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
92.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+6
92.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 6 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+10
91.2%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Chris Brown return for 10 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:1395% → 95%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
94.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+7
95.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 7 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-1
95.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 39Similar
Q4 7:22
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
95.3%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:327% → 6%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
93.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the OKSt 13Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
93.6%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Logan CarterSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
93.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q4 6:43
4TH & 8
OWN 13
-6
93.9%
Tom Hutton punt for 30 yds , Byron Vaughns returns for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:3596% → 96%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
96.0%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
96.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+5
96.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 3
OPP 42
-5
96.0%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 47Similar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 8
OPP 47
-5
96.0%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 48Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
95.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25FUMBLE
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:096% → 5%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
94.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 5 yds to the OKSt 15Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+10
94.2%
Spencer Sanders run for 10 yds to the OKSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
94.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
94.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to C.J. MooreSimilar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
95.4%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 24Similar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
95.5%
Tom Hutton punt for 30 yds , Brandon Jones returns for no gain to the Texas 46 Brandon Jones fumbled, recovered by OKSt Kemah SiverandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:586% → 27%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
94.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-5
94.0%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 47Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+8
94.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for 8 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-7
93.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jelani Woods for 8 yds to the Texas 31 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Texas 46Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+33
94.6%
Spencer Sanders run for 33 yds to the Texas 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
93.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Chuba HubbardSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
93.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Landon WolfSimilar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
73.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 13 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:5295% → 97%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
94.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the Texas 49Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+29
95.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 29 yds to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:37
Chuba Hubbard run for 13 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
-20.4
TD · Q3 5:30
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 25 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+14.6
TD · Q4 11:44
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sam Ehlinger pass to Roschon Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com