Try the model
OKST

Oklahoma State 40 at Tulsa 21

TLSA
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Chapman Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:55 · Tom Hutton punt for 40 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 5 yds to the Tulsa 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 181Pregame prior−6.0Home team on offense−28.9Score differential−14.0Garbage-time factor−10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:23: Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 39 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +4.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:57: Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +6.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q2 2:29: Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +14.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:35: Spencer Sanders run for 27 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +17.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:29: Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 90 yds for a TD TULSA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — OKST win probability +12.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 14:44TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:34OKST 4th & 1 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:17TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:00OKST 4th & 6 at TLSA 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:46TLSA 4th & 18 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00OKST 4th & 6 at TLSA 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    78.3%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:53TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:50OKST 4th & 2 at TLSA 19, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%−0.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    75.7%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:57OKST 4th & 3 at OKST 37, up 6
    Close callPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:23OKST 4th & 6 at TLSA 49, down 1
    Close callPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−2.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:56OKST 4th & 3 at OKST 42, down 1
    Close callPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:16TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 12, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−2.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:35TLSA 4th & 16 at midfield, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:29TLSA 4th & 15 at TLSA 20, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−1.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:58TLSA 4th & 5 at OKST 6, down 12
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    14.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−7.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:55OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 30, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:41TLSA 4th & 8 at OKST 35, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−1.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:34OKST 4th & 1 at TLSA 33, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−1.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 14:50OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:23OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:23TLSA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:57TLSA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:29TLSA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:35OKST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:29OKST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:34OKST Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
18.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 75 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
18.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
18.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 14:44
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
18.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon Stokes, broken up by Kolby Harvell-PeelSimilar
Q1 14:44
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+16
18.6%
Thomas Bennett punt for 40 yds , Dillon Stoner returns for 16 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:1181% → 82%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
18.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
18.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 1
50
0
18.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 1
50
+2
18.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
18.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 3 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+15
18.8%
Sanders,Spencer pass incomplete to Wallace, Tylan, PENALTY TLS pass interference (ELLIS, R.) 15 yards to the TLS30, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
18.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 30 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
18.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 11 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
18.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 3 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+1
18.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
18.5%
Zach Smith run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+8
18.5%
Thomas Bennett punt for 60 yds , Dillon Stoner returns for 8 yds to the OKSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 3:2581% → 83%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
18.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 6 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+3
18.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
18.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
18.5%
LD Brown run for 9 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
18.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+8
18.5%
LD Brown run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
18.4%
Sanders,Spencer pass incomplete to Wallace, Tylan (JOHNSON, B.), PENALTY OSU illegal shift 5 yards to the OSU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+7
18.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+22
18.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 7 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
18.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
18.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
18.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan Wallace, broken up by Reggie Robinson IISimilar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
17.0%
Matt Ammendola 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3717% → 22%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
16.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
17.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
17.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+4
17.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+12
17.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 12 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
21.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 39 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7INT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0079% → 80%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
20.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 9 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+4
20.3%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Reggie Robinson II return for 4 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-8
21.7%
Zach Smith sacked by Tre Sterling and Amen Ogbongbemiga for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 18
50
0
21.3%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 18
50
0
21.0%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 18
50
0
20.8%
Thomas Bennett punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:1579% → 79%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
20.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 20 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
20.1%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
20.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 9 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
20.1%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+1
20.1%
LD Brown run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+1
20.2%
LD Brown run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
20.8%
Tom Hutton punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
20.4%
SMITH, Z. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, K. (Williams, R.), PENALTY TLS illegal procedure 5 yards to the TLS5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+2
20.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+6
20.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-5
20.0%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 12
OWN 8
0
19.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 12
OWN 8
0
19.7%
Thomas Bennett punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the Tulsa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11FG
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:3179% → 81%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
20.6%
Sanders,Spencer pass incomplete to Wallace, Tylan, PENALTY TLS pass interference (GREEN IV, A.) 15 yards to the TLS27, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
20.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
20.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+1
20.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+36
18.7%
Matt Ammendola 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5320% → 27%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
19.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
19.8%
Zach Smith run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
19.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
20.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 2
50
+3
20.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+44
20.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 44 yds to the OKSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
26.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
23.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 5 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
22.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for no gain to the OKSt 35Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+2
23.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 2 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q2 9:57
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+5
23.5%
Tom Hutton punt for 52 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 5 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14TD
18 plays · 84 yds · 6:0825% → 42%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
24.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+5
24.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 5 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+5
24.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
24.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+10
24.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
25.8%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
25.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-5
25.7%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+16
24.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Shamari Brooks for 16 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
26.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 16 yds to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
29.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Carter for 2 yds to the OKSt 24Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+7
29.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the OKSt 17Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+6
27.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the OKSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
29.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the OKSt 9Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+6
29.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the OKSt 3Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+2
27.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the OKSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 1:0063% → 63%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
37.0%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+15
37.1%
Sanders,Spencer pass incomplete to Wallace, Tylan, PENALTY TLS pass interference (ROBINSON II, R.) 15 yards to the OSU35, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
36.4%
Spencer Sanders run for 4 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+8
34.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 8 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
34.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
34.9%
Spencer Sanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
35.2%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Chuba HubbardSimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
37.3%
Tom Hutton punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3940% → 40%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
39.8%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+10
39.4%
SMITH, Z. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, J., PENALTY OSU pass interference (Harvell-Peel, K) 10 yards to the TLS29, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
40.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
40.1%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Tulsa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
39.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
40.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-4
40.6%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
38.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Shamari Brooks for no gain to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
37.6%
Thomas Bennett punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
41.1%
Sanders,Spencer pass complete to Wallace, Tylan for 8 yards to the OSU33 (JOHNSON, B.), PENALTY OSU holding (Stoner, Dillon) 10 yards to the OSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-5
41.3%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 10Similar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 25
OWN 10
+10
41.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for 10 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+11
41.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 11 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
41.2%
Spencer Sanders run for 4 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
40.3%
Hubbard, Chuba rush for 34 yards to the TLS31 (GREEN IV, A.), PENALTY OSU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the OSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+3
41.0%
LD Brown run for 3 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+8
41.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 8 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
38.6%
Spencer Sanders run for 1 yd to the OKSt 42Similar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
40.8%
Tom Hutton punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0045% → 42%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
44.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
44.5%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 8
OWN 12
0
43.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Shamari BrooksSimilar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 8
OWN 12
+11
42.4%
Thomas Bennett punt for 51 yds , Dillon Stoner returns for 11 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:1758% → 78%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
41.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+8
41.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 8 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
41.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+6
40.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
39.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
39.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+27
22.4%
Spencer Sanders run for 27 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Denzel Carter for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
28.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
27.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon Stokes for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
30.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 9 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
31.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
31.6%
SMITH, Z. pass complete to JOHNSON, J. for 17 yards to the OSU27 (Bernard,Jarrick;Harvell-Peel, K), PENALTY TLS CH 15 yards to the TLS41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 25
OWN 41
-1
28.4%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 26
OWN 40
0
28.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 26
OWN 40
+10
26.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Cannon Montgomery for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 16
50
0
26.3%
Thomas Bennett punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22TD
1 play · 90 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+90
13.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 90 yds for a TD TULSA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
15.3%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
14.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
14.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 1:29
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+13
14.3%
Thomas Bennett punt for 43 yds , Dillon Stoner returns for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:2889% → 89%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
50
+3
11.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+7
11.0%
Chuba Hubbard run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
11.0%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 48 Spencer Sanders fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Manny Bunch , return for 6 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25DOWNS
13 plays · 33 yds · 4:2516% → 13%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
16.0%
SMITH, Z. pass complete to STOKES, K. for 33 yards to the OSU15 (Bernard,Jarrick), PENALTY TLS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TLS47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+4
15.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+5
15.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 5 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+14
15.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 14 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-6
17.5%
Zach Smith sacked by Amen Ogbongbemiga for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 36Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 16
OPP 36
0
15.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 16
OPP 36
+25
14.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 25 yds to the OKSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
17.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the OKSt 10Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
17.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+4
16.3%
Zach Smith run for 4 yds to the OKSt 6Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 5
OPP 6
-9
13.1%
Zach Smith sacked by Kolby Harvell-Peel for a loss of 9 yards to the OKSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
7.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 14Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 11
OWN 14
-5
8.0%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 9Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 16
OWN 9
+3
8.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 3 yds to the OKSt 12Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+16
8.3%
Spencer Sanders run for 1 yd to the OKSt 13 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
7.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-10
7.7%
Hubbard, Chuba rush for 1 yard to the OSU32 (CANNON, D.), PENALTY OSU holding 10 yards to the OSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 17
OWN 21
+9
8.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 9 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
8.1%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+5
8.0%
Tom Hutton punt for 40 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 5 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
8.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 28 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
10.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
10.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 9 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 1
OPP 28
-2
11.6%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 30Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 3
OPP 30
-5
10.5%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 35Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
9.8%
Seth Boomer run for no gain to the OKSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 28TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:1695% → 99%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
5.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
5.1%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Logan Carter, broken up by Allie Green IVSimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+21
5.3%
Spencer Sanders run for 21 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
4.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+2
4.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
2.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+33
0.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 33 yds for a TD TULSA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29END OF GAME
14 plays · 20 yds · 0:561% → 1%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
0.8%
Seth Boomer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
0.8%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
0.8%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
0.9%
Seth Boomer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
0.7%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 9 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+5
0.6%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 5 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
0.7%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Abe AndersonSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-5
0.7%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 43Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 15
OPP 43
-5
0.7%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 48Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 20
OPP 48
-5
0.7%
BOOMER, S. pass complete to JOHNSON, K. for 38 yards to the OSU10 (Flanagan, Sean), PENALTY TLS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TLS47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 25
OWN 47
+1
0.7%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Cannon Montgomery for 1 yd to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 24
OWN 48
+9
0.7%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 9 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:35
Spencer Sanders run for 27 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
-17.1
TD · Q2 2:29
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)
+14.6
TD · Q3 1:29
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 90 yds for a TD TULSA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com