2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadMCN aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreMCN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Cody Orgeron pass incomplete to Cyron Sutton, broken up by Sean Michael Flanagan
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:29: Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 69 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:43: Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:29: Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:48: Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 75 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5MCN made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
- Q1 14:15MCN 4th & 2 at MCN 43, down 7Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:05OKST 4th & 23 at OKST 10, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.6%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.7%average punt
- Q1 8:27MCN 4th & 21 at OKST 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q1 2:08MCN 4th & 7 at OKST 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%37% to convertField goal2.1%−<0.151% to makePunt2.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:29MCN 4th & 4 at MCN 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.8%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q2 15:00OKST 4th & 3 at OKST 16, up 14Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:31MCN 4th & 5 at OKST 45, down 14Close callPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it2.0%41% to convertField goal1.8%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call1.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 7:43MCN 4th & 5 at midfield, down 21Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 9:15MCN 4th & 4 at MCN 31, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 5:59MCN 4th & 5 at OKST 24, down 49Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goal0.1%68% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q3 5:59MCN 4th & 1 at OKST 1, down 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%59% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.294% to makePunt-0.5%−0.7average punt
- Q3 2:34OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 9, up 49Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00MCN 4th & 1 at OKST 1, down 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%59% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.294% to makePunt-0.5%−0.6average punt
- Q4 14:23OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 20, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 11:52MCN 4th & 15 at MCN 41, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:17OKST 4th & 6 at OKST 11, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 9:09MCN 4th & 4 at OKST 46, down 49Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%48% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MCN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 15:00OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:29OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:43OKST Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:29OKST Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:48OKST Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:15MCN Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:15OKST Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:52OKST Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:04OKST Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMCNDrive 1INT TD3 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
MCNDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+7
99.1%
Cody Orgeron pass complete to Trevor Begue for 7 yds to the McNSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
MCNDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 8:27
3RD & 12
OPP 39
-9
98.8%
Cody Orgeron sacked by Amen Ogbongbemiga for a loss of 9 yards to the OKSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5FUMBLE5 plays · 30 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 4:47
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+11
98.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jordan McCray for 11 yds to the OKSt 14Similar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
98.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 13 yds Dillon Stoner fumbled, forced by Darion Dunn, recovered by McNSt Jovon BurrissSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 6DOWNS6 plays · 8 yds · 1:362% → 2%
Q1 3:44
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-2
98.3%
Cody Orgeron pass complete to Trevor Begue for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7TD2 plays · 73 yds · 0:3098% → 99%
MCNDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.6%
Matt Keller pass complete to Draysean Hudson for 6 yds to the McNSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0699% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
98.4%
Cody Orgeron pass complete to Nate Briscoe for 5 yds to the McNSt 44Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+6
98.4%
Cody Orgeron pass complete to Darion Dunn for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
98.4%
Cody Orgeron pass incomplete to Draysean Hudson, broken up by Tre SterlingSimilar
Q2 14:31
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
98.4%
Bailey Raborn punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11TD18 plays · 91 yds · 4:1398% → 99%
Q2 11:56
2ND & 4
OWN 15
0
98.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan Wallace, broken up by Darion DunnSimilar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 4
OWN 15
-7
98.4%
Sanders,Spencer rush for 7 yards to the OSU22, out-of-bounds (Daniels, Darius), PENALTY OSU personal foul (Galloway, Dylan) 7 yards to the OSU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+5
98.4%
MCNEESE ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Cody Roscoe) to the OKSt 13Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+9
98.4%
Spencer Sanders run for 9 yds to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST down MCNEESE ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+9
98.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jordan McCray for 9 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
98.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jordan McCray for 13 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+3
98.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 3 yds to the McNSt 26Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+11
98.5%
Sanders,Spencer pass incomplete to Wolf, Landon, PENALTY MCN face mask (Bonnette, R.) 11 yards to the MCN10, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan Wallace, broken up by Cyron SuttonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 0:001% → 1%
OKSTDrive 13TD12 plays · 91 yds · 3:3099% → 100%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
99.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jordan McCray for 12 yds to the OKSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+29
99.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 29 yds to the OKLAST 34 for a 1ST down MCNEESE ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+20
99.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 6 yds to the McNSt 28 for a 1ST down MCNEESE ST Penalty, personal foul (Darion Dunn) to the McNSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
99.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 7 yds to the McNSt 7Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 14END OF HALF9 plays · 18 yds · 0:100% → 0%
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-10
99.8%
Cody Orgeron sacked by Trace Ford for a loss of 10 yards to the McNSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
99.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 75 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 16TD10 plays · 82 yds · 3:330% → 0%
Q3 11:15
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
99.8%
Cody Orgeron pass complete to D'Andre Hicks for 16 yds for a TD, (Noah Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to Landon Wolf for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 24Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
99.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to Logan Carter for 6 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+59
99.9%
Dru Brown pass complete to C.J. Moore for 59 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
OKSTDrive 19TD2 plays · 72 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
MCNDrive 20INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
OKSTDrive 21TD1 play · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 22DOWNS14 plays · 81 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
99.9%
Cody Orgeron pass complete to D'Andre Hicks for 12 yds to the McNSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.9%
Cody Orgeron pass complete to Trevor Begue for 6 yds to the McNSt 36Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+35
99.9%
Cody Orgeron pass complete to Trevor Begue for 35 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
99.9%
Cody Orgeron pass complete to Cyron Sutton for 2 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+23
99.9%
Cody Orgeron pass complete to Trevor Begue for 23 yds to the OKSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
Mack, Elijah rush for no gain to the OSU1 (Ford, Trace), PENALTY OSU offside 0 yards to the OSU1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
Cody Orgeron pass incomplete to Davion Curtis, broken up by Kody WalterscheidSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
MCNDrive 24DOWNS5 plays · 48 yds · 1:060% → 0%
OKSTDrive 25PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
99.9%
Dru Brown pass complete to LC Greenwood for 2 yds to the OKSt 17Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+3
99.9%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dayton Metcalf for 3 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q4 14:23
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Tom Hutton punt for 34 yds , Cyron Sutton returns for no gain to the McNSt 46 Cyron Sutton fumbled, forced by Gabe Lemons, recovered by McNSt Cyron SuttonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 26PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
OKSTDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:58100% → 100%
MCNDrive 28PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:09
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Bailey Raborn punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Thomas Harper at the OKSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 29FUMBLE TD6 plays · 26 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
100.0%
Taylor, Shaun rush for no gain to the OSU6 (Lewis, Enos;Jackson, Justin), PENALTY MCN false start (Conerly, Steven) 5 yards to the OSU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
100.0%
Shaun Taylor pass complete to Langston Anderson for 8 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
100.0%
Shaun Taylor pass complete to Dayton Metcalf for 3 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+32
100.0%
Deondrick Glass run for no gain Deondrick Glass fumbled, forced by Dorion Pollard, recovered by McNSt Marcus Foster , return for 32 yds, (Noah Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:43
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 1:29
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q1 1:29
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 69 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
+0.4