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OKST

Oklahoma State 52 at Oregon State 36

ORST
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2019 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.5ORST 28.7%Jordan Choukair 30 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 10 · Q1 3:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:42 · Jordan Choukair 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.5+26.30−26.3−52.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Home team on offense+1.1Pregame prior−24.4Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:02: Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 21 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +7.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:20: Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +5.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:50: Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 9 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK) — ORST win probability +7.6 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:54: Chuba Hubbard run for 53 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +6.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:08: Jack Colletto run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ORST win probability +11.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7OKST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 3:42ORST 4th & 7 at OKST 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:33OKST 4th & 6 at ORST 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−3.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:15ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:36ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:16ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:25ORST 4th & 25 at ORST 35, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−3.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:24OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 24, up 22
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:35ORST 4th & 7 at OKST 30, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:38ORST 4th & 3 at OKST 46, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:00OKST 4th & 14 at OKST 45, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5OKST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:06ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:13OKST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:41OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:45OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:02OKST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:03ORST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:20OKST Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:50ORST Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:54OKST Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:08ORST Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:39OKST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:19ORST Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 1:4922% → 23%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
21.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 7 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+8
22.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
22.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 11 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
22.5%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
22.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 15 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
23.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 29 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:3677% → 76%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
23.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+13
23.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 13 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
23.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Logan Carter for 1 yd to the OKSt 47Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+10
24.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
24.2%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Teven Jenkins) to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+33
24.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 33 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
24.4%
LD Brown run for no gain to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+12
24.9%
Dillon Stoner run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
25.1%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
24.0%
Chuba Hubbard run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 5:1825% → 29%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
25.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
25.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+13
25.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 13 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
26.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 2 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
26.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+7
26.6%
Jake Luton run for 7 yds to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
27.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
27.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+16
27.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 16 yds to the OKSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
28.1%
B.J. Baylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 16Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+4
28.4%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OKSt 12Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
28.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Artavis PierceSimilar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
28.7%
Jordan Choukair 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4FG
16 plays · 71 yds · 4:5271% → 71%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
28.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for no gain to the OKSt 23Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-2
29.3%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Jaydon Grant for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 21Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+23
29.8%
Spencer Sanders run for 23 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
28.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jelani WoodsSimilar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
28.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+14
29.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 14 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
28.8%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+15
29.6%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Carter, Logan, PENALTY OREGONST pass interference (Morris, David) 15 yards to the OREGONST30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
28.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+5
28.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+13
29.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
29.1%
Chuba Hubbard run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
29.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
30.1%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q2 13:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
28.9%
Matt Ammendola 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0031% → 31%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
31.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
31.0%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Kolby Taylor, broken up by Tyler LacySimilar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+53
30.6%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 53 yds , Dillon Stoner returns for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 2:1970% → 77%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
30.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the OKSt 18Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
30.6%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+8
31.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jordan McCray for 8 yds to the OKSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+23
30.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 23 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+26
29.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 26 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
29.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 20 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
23.4%
LD Brown run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5925% → 24%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
25.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Jermar JeffersonSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+2
25.2%
Jake Luton pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 2 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
24.7%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 8
OWN 11
0
24.4%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:4576% → 83%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
23.9%
Spencer Sanders run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
22.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 3 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
22.9%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Johnny Wilson) to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+9
23.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 9 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+4
22.9%
LD Brown run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+36
17.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 36 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:2918% → 18%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
18.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
18.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+6
18.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
17.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Tyjon Lindsey, broken up by Trace FordSimilar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+5
17.9%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 48 yds , Dillon Stoner returns for 5 yds to the OKSt 32 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the OKSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:5882% → 91%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
18.0%
Chuba Hubbard run for 5 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
17.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+14
18.0%
Chuba Hubbard run for 14 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
17.0%
LD Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+14
17.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jordan McCray for 14 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
16.7%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Wallace, Tylan, PENALTY OREGONST pass interference (Grant, Jaydon) 15 yards to the OREGONST31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
16.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
16.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+21
9.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 21 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 1:4911% → 18%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
11.1%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
11.0%
Jake Luton run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
11.4%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
11.1%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Jermar JeffersonSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+12
10.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
12.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 12 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
12.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 45Similar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+3
12.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+18
12.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 18 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
12.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Noah TogiaiSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
12.5%
Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 5 yds Tyjon Lindsey fumbled, recovered by OrgStSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+18
11.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 18 yds to the OKSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.5%
Jack Colletto run for no gain to the OKSt 1Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
14.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:3585% → 93%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
15.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
14.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 21 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
13.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+6
13.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 6 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
13.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 6 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
13.1%
Spencer Sanders run for no gain to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+12
13.0%
Chuba Hubbard run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
12.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q3 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
12.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
6.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:2510% → 17%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
10.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
9.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+42
8.4%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 42 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
10.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 20 yds to the OKSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
9.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Jesiah IrishSimilar
Q3 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
17.0%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 9 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4688% → 96%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
12.0%
Chuba Hubbard run for 6 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
11.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braydon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
12.0%
Spencer Sanders run for 4 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
11.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 10 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
10.9%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+53
4.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for 53 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · -2 yds · 2:085% → 4%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
5.3%
Jake Luton run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
5.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+6
5.3%
B.J. Baylor run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
50
0
5.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
50
-10
5.1%
Jake Luton sacked by Amen Ogbongbemiga for a loss of 10 yards to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 20
OWN 40
-5
4.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 25
OWN 35
0
4.4%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 25
OWN 35
0
4.4%
Daniel Rodriguez punt for 50 yds , Dillon Stoner returns for no gain to the OKSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3697% → 98%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
2.8%
LD Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 14Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+5
2.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to C.J. Moore for 5 yds to the OKSt 19Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+5
2.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 5 yds to the OKSt 24Similar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
2.2%
Tom Hutton punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jesiah Irish at the OrgSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18TD
14 plays · 64 yds · 4:524% → 14%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
3.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
3.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 5 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+5
3.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
3.9%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Isaiah HodginsSimilar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+19
3.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 19 yds to the OKSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
4.3%
Jake Luton run for no gain to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
3.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
3.5%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:35
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+12
3.3%
Jake Luton pass complete to Noah Togiai for 12 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
3.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the OKSt 13Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
3.2%
Jake Luton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+12
3.1%
Jake Luton pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 12 yds to the OKSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
3.1%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the OKSt 1Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.1%
Jack Colletto run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2196% → 99%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.0%
LD Brown run for 3 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
4.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 8 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
3.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 6 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+15
3.4%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Stoner, Dillon, PENALTY OREGONST pass interference (Wilson, Shawn) 15 yards to the OREGONST43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
3.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+30
3.3%
Spencer Sanders run for 30 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
2.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for no gain to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+3
2.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
0.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to C.J. Moore for 11 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:472% → 1%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
1.9%
Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 1 yd to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
1.8%
Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for no gain to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+14
1.7%
Jake Luton pass complete to Champ Flemings for 14 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
1.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 7
50
+4
1.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
1.2%
Jake Luton pass incomplete to Tyjon Lindsey, broken up by Kolby Harvell-PeelSimilar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 3
OPP 46
-3
1.2%
Jack Colletto run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:3099% → 100%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
0.6%
LD Brown run for no gain to the OKSt 49Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-4
0.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 6 yds to the OREGONST 45 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+6
0.5%
Micah Cooper run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-6
0.5%
Micah Cooper run for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 45Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
0.5%
Tom Hutton punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jesiah Irish at the OrgSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 2:351% → 4%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.9%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Kolby TaylorSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
0.9%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Isaiah SmallsSimilar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
0.9%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jayden Jernigan) to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+14
0.9%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 14 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
0.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
1.0%
Tristan Gebbia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+11
0.9%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 11 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
0.9%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Artavis PierceSimilar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
0.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 8 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+5
1.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
1.0%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tanner McCalister) to the OKSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
1.0%
Tristan Gebbia run for 9 yds to the OKSt 5Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+5
3.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:3599% → 99%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.1%
Micah Cooper run for 5 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
1.1%
Micah Cooper run for 2 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:08
Jack Colletto run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+11.1
TD · Q3 9:50
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 9 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
+7.6
TD · Q2 2:02
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 21 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
-7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com