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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreTCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:30 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:56: Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 5 yds for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +3.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:31: Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +4.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:15: Max Duggan run for 11 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +10.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 7:11: Jalen Hurts run for 8 yds for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +6.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:43: Jalen Hurts pass intercepted for a TD Vernon Scott return for 98 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +11.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 13:45TCU 4th & 20 at TCU 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it12.2%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.4%average punt
- Q1 11:06OU 4th & 2 at TCU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.0%57% to convertField goal86.9%−0.156% to makePunt86.8%−0.2average punt
- Q1 7:08TCU 4th & 20 at TCU 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snapGo for it12.5%−0.39% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.8%average punt
- Q1 2:30TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snapGo for it11.5%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.8%average punt
- Q2 11:03TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 39, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q2 10:05OU 4th & 9 at OU 31, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snapGo for it93.0%−0.631% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.5%average punt
- Q2 2:41TCU 4th & 7 at OU 7, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.1% before the snapGo for it10.5%−0.228% to convertField goalTheir call10.7%91% to makePunt8.5%−2.2average punt
- Q2 0:35OU 4th & 18 at OU 38, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snapGo for it86.6%−0.913% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.5%average punt
- Q3 12:21OU 4th & 3 at TCU 42, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.4%52% to convertField goal87.3%−1.130% to makePunt87.7%−0.7average punt
- Q3 4:48TCU 4th & 12 at OU 42, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snapGo for it11.1%−0.424% to convertField goal11.0%−0.430% to makePuntTheir call11.4%average punt
- Q4 6:34TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 7, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snapGo for it18.1%−0.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.6%average punt
- Q4 3:16OU 4th & 1 at TCU 41, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.6%70% to convertField goal81.2%−6.432% to makePunt81.1%−6.5average punt
- Q4 1:41TCU 4th & 6 at OU 40, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.7%40% to convertField goal14.9%−3.834% to makePunt11.2%−7.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 9:20OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.1%97% to makeGo for two87.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:35OU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.3%97% to makeGo for two88.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:56OU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.7%97% to makeGo for two93.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:31TCU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.3%97% to makeGo for two10.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:15TCU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.8%97% to makeGo for two20.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:11OU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.3%97% to makeGo for two88.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:43TCU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.5%97% to makeGo for two22.2%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTCUDrive 1PUNT7 plays · -10 yds · 1:1512% → 12%
Q1 13:45
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+13
87.8%
Jordy Sandy punt for 50 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for 13 yds to the Okla 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2TD10 plays · 52 yds · 4:1588% → 88%
Q1 12:45
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+7
87.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Lee Morris for 7 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 1:3713% → 13%
OUDrive 4TD5 plays · 65 yds · 2:2787% → 89%
TCUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5512% → 11%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
88.4%
Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the TCU 30 TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-3
88.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 17Similar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+11
88.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 11 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
88.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 53 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD11 plays · 81 yds · 4:2589% → 94%
Q1 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+12
89.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 12 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+21
89.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 36 yds to the OKLAHOMA 15 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Illegal Block (CeeDee Lamb) to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+6
89.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 6 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
93.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 5 yds for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 1:447% → 6%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
93.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 10 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4594% → 94%
Q2 10:05
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
94.0%
Reeves Mundschau punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9TD3 plays · 68 yds · 1:146% → 12%
OUDrive 10FUMBLE6 plays · 32 yds · 2:0590% → 91%
TCUDrive 11FG9 plays · 48 yds · 3:1911% → 12%
OUDrive 12PUNT10 plays · 4 yds · 1:5189% → 89%
TCUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 8 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14DOWNS8 plays · 9 yds · 2:3489% → 88%
TCUDrive 15TD6 plays · 49 yds · 2:0114% → 25%
Q3 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+15
86.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Darius Anderson for 15 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16TD7 plays · 66 yds · 2:3781% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17PUNT11 plays · 21 yds · 2:0613% → 11%
Q3 6:11
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+6
87.0%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (6 Yards) to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
86.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 9 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q3 4:48
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
88.7%
Jordy Sandy punt for 34 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18INT TD14 plays · 85 yds · 6:5889% → 80%
OUDrive 19FUMBLE10 plays · 36 yds · 4:4477% → 82%
TCUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1126% → 24%
Q4 6:34
4TH & 10
OWN 7
+55
76.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 55 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21DOWNS7 plays · 22 yds · 3:0782% → 87%
Q4 5:52
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+4
83.2%
Rhamondre Stevenson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22INT5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2929% → 29%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
71.1%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+5
70.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 5 yds to the Okla 40Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
71.4%
Max Duggan pass intercepted Brendan Radley-Hiles return for no gain to the Okla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23Uncategorized7 plays · 6 yds · 1:0890% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:43
Jalen Hurts pass intercepted for a TD Vernon Scott return for 98 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q3 10:15
Max Duggan run for 11 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q3 7:11
Jalen Hurts run for 8 yds for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK)
+6.2