2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:54 · Josh Growden punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Drake Stoops at the Okla 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:57: Austin Kendall pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 38 yds for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +1.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:08: Kennedy Brooks run for 9 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +1.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:31: Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:20: Austin Kendall pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +2.4 pts (now 5%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:51: Jalen Hurts run for 22 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WVU made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
- Q1 11:53WVU 4th & 9 at OU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.5%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q1 9:32OU 4th & 4 at OU 29, tiedClose callPunted · 96.1% before the snapGo for it96.1%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:11WVU 4th & 9 at WVU 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it4.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q1 4:04WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.2%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q1 0:01WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 31, down 14Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.1%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.2%average punt
- Q2 11:57WVU 4th & 6 at OU 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.5%40% to convertField goal4.3%−0.238% to makePunt4.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 7:55WVU 4th & 6 at WVU 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%average punt
- Q2 4:45WVU 4th & 9 at WVU 34, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q2 3:27OU 4th & 6 at OU 12, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.438% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%average punt
- Q3 9:29WVU 4th & 26 at WVU 26, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.66% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q3 6:51WVU 4th & 3 at WVU 9, down 28Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 3:42WVU 4th & 15 at WVU 33, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:17OU 4th & 12 at WVU 12, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.119% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%86% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 10:27WVU 4th & 4 at OU 11, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%45% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.187% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 8:56OU 4th & 4 at OU 17, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 6:54WVU 4th & 15 at WVU 32, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:00OU 4th & 10 at OU 33, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 2:19WVU 4th & 2 at WVU 29, down 38Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WVU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 4:32OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:05OU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:57WVU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.8%97% to makeGo for two5.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:08OU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:31OU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:20WVU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.5%97% to makeGo for two4.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:51OU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:01OU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 2:372% → 3%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.7%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Sam James for 11 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
97.7%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Sam James for 16 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
97.7%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Sam James for a loss of 5 yards to the WVirg 47Similar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
97.4%
Josh Growden punt for 40 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 22 yds · 2:1397% → 97%
WVUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:093% → 3%
OUDrive 4TD8 plays · 66 yds · 3:3697% → 97%
Q1 7:30
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+4
96.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Kennedy Brooks for 4 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+15
96.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 15 yds to the WVirg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+20
96.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 20 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:213% → 3%
Q1 4:04
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-2
96.7%
Josh Growden punt for 47 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD4 plays · 74 yds · 1:3097% → 97%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+31
96.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 31 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
96.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 9 yds to the WVirg 6Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+6
97.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 6 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:533% → 5%
Q1 1:10
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
96.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 7 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
96.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to T.J. Simmons for no gain to the WVirg 31Similar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+7
96.8%
Josh Growden pass complete to Dante Bonamico for 7 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+20
96.6%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Ali Jennings for 20 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+38
95.4%
Austin Kendall pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 38 yds for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3796% → 97%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
95.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Nick Basquine for 13 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
95.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Kennedy Brooks for 24 yds to the WVirg 24 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the WVirg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
95.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 13 yds to the WVirg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:014% → 4%
Q2 7:55
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+10
96.4%
Josh Growden punt for 44 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for 10 yds to the Okla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10TD3 plays · 57 yds · 1:1097% → 99%
WVUDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:412% → 2%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
98.0%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the WVirg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+4
98.0%
Austin Kendall pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 4 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+2
98.0%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Ali Jennings for 2 yds to the WVirg 34Similar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 9
OWN 34
-2
98.1%
Josh Growden punt for 56 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4898% → 98%
Q2 3:27
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
98.4%
Reeves Mundschau punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Alec Sinkfield at the WVirg 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13TD9 plays · 51 yds · 2:552% → 5%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
98.0%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Bryce Wheaton for 19 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+7
97.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Sam James for 7 yds to the Okla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
97.7%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Okla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
95.4%
Austin Kendall pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0196% → 99%
WVUDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 1 yds · 3:012% → 2%
OUDrive 17TD2 plays · 55 yds · 0:1499% → 100%
WVUDrive 18PUNT TD6 plays · 7 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q3 6:51
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
99.8%
TEAM punt blocked by Brayden Willis blocked by Brayden Willis for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19PUNT12 plays · 5 yds · 3:090% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20FG9 plays · 49 yds · 4:03100% → 100%
WVUDrive 21DOWNS11 plays · 64 yds · 3:360% → 0%
OUDrive 22FUMBLE4 plays · 6 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q4 8:56
4TH & 4
OWN 17
+5
99.9%
Reeves Mundschau punt for 51 yds , Alec Sinkfield returns for 5 yds to the WVirg 37 Alec Sinkfield fumbled, forced by Parnell Motley, recovered by WVirg TSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:360% → 0%
OUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 10 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
99.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Drake Stoops for 10 yds to the Okla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-3
100.0%
Tanner Mordecai run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 33 Tanner Mordecai fumbled, recovered by OklaSimilar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Reeves Mundschau punt for 59 yds , Devan Wade returns for no gain to the WVirg 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 2:110% → 0%
OUDrive 26END OF GAME6 plays · 59 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:51
Jalen Hurts run for 22 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q2 0:20
Austin Kendall pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK)
-2.4
TD · Q2 6:31
Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
+1.8