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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:30 · Wade Lees punt for 45 yds , Drake Stoops returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:31: Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 39 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) — OU win probability +1.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:49: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 13 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +2.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 9:25: Calum Sutherland 32 yd FG GOOD — OU win probability +1.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:11: Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 48 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) — OU win probability +4.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:34: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 8 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +3.3 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 9 of 9OU made the numbers' call on 1 of 5
- Q1 12:24OU 4th & 3 at UCLA 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.2%52% to convertField goal91.1%−0.156% to makePunt91.0%−0.2average punt
- Q1 9:32UCLA 4th & 14 at OU 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snapGo for it9.2%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.4%average punt
- Q1 5:49OU 4th & 4 at UCLA 4, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snapGo for it89.9%40% to convertField goalTheir call89.8%−0.193% to makePunt89.0%−0.9average punt
- Q1 4:37UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snapGo for it10.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.3%average punt
- Q2 14:11UCLA 4th & 1 at OU 15, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.1%71% to convertField goal8.6%−0.583% to makePunt6.9%−2.2average punt
- Q2 9:25OU 4th & 3 at UCLA 15, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snapGo for it87.2%51% to convertField goalTheir call87.1%−0.183% to makePunt85.6%−1.6average punt
- Q2 7:05UCLA 4th & 23 at UCLA 23, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snapGo for it10.5%−0.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.3%average punt
- Q2 0:00UCLA 4th & 18 at UCLA 30, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it0.1%−1.012% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q3 9:15UCLA 4th & 1 at OU 27, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%71% to convertField goal1.0%−0.562% to makePunt-0.2%−1.7average punt
- Q3 6:15OU 4th & 2 at OU 33, up 20Close callPunted · 96.4% before the snapGo for it96.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 3:25UCLA 4th & 2 at OU 43, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.2%57% to convertField goal2.4%−1.828% to makePunt3.0%−1.2average punt
- Q4 13:06UCLA 4th & 8 at OU 18, down 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.232% to convertField goalTheir call1.1%79% to makePunt-0.0%−1.1average punt
- Q4 4:30UCLA 4th & 17 at UCLA 18, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 3:35OU 4th & 3 at OU 43, up 34Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2OU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 12:24OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two91.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:31OU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.4%97% to makeGo for two91.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:49UCLA Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.1%97% to makeGo for two11.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:11OU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.5%97% to makeGo for two92.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:01OU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:34UCLA Touchdown, down 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.6%97% to makeGo for two3.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:27OU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:15OU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1TD7 plays · 89 yds · 2:0794% → 94%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
6.2%
Sermon, Trey rush for 9 yards to the UCLA28, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding 10 yards to the UCLA47, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 2:267% → 7%
OUDrive 3FG9 plays · 90 yds · 3:2793% → 92%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+25
7.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Lee Morris for 25 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
7.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 18 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
7.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 9 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:598% → 8%
Q1 4:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
8.2%
Wade Lees punt for 41 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for no gain to the Okla 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5TD3 plays · 69 yds · 0:4492% → 94%
Q1 3:31
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+39
6.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 39 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6TD14 plays · 75 yds · 4:327% → 10%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
6.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 7 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
6.8%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Marquise Overton) to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+23
6.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 23 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
10.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 13 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7FG11 plays · 42 yds · 4:1590% → 91%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
9.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 8 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 2
OPP 49
-28
9.6%
Hurts, Jalen pass complete to Lamb, CeeDee for 18 yards to the UCLA49, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding 28 yards to the OKLAHOMA23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
9.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Nick Basquine for 12 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+24
10.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 24 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 2:0210% → 10%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
9.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 11 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-15
10.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Jalen Redmond for a loss of 15 yards to the UCLA 23Similar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 23
OWN 23
0
9.6%
Wade Lees punt for 47 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9TD7 plays · 70 yds · 2:4490% → 95%
Q2 5:48
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
9.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Nick Basquine for 5 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
9.5%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Leni Toailoa for a loss of 7 yards to the Okla 34Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+18
10.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Lee Morris for 18 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+48
5.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 48 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10INT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:356% → 7%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.4%
TEAM run for no gain to the UCLA 25 Dorian Thompson-Robinson fumbled, recovered by UCLA Dorian Thompson-Robinson Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Demetric FeltonSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
6.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 7 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
6.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted Tre Brown return for 1 yd to the UCLA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11TD5 plays · 36 yds · 2:1795% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 0:443% → 1%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
3.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 13 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
3.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Isaiah Thomas for a loss of 10 yards to the UCLA 28 UCLA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the UCLA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13TD16 plays · 75 yds · 7:072% → 6%
Q3 13:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
2.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 6 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+28
2.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 28 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-15
2.4%
Thompson-Robinson, Dorian pass complete to Cota, Chase for 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA27, PENALTY UCLA illegal helmet contact 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 21
OPP 47
+20
2.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Devin Asiasi for 20 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
2.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 10 yds to the Okla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
5.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 8 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0596% → 97%
UCLADrive 15DOWNS6 plays · 32 yds · 2:054% → 3%
OUDrive 16TD6 plays · 57 yds · 2:4998% → 99%
Q3 0:27
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+39
1.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 39 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17MISSED FG8 plays · 57 yds · 2:142% → 1%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
2.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 14 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
2.5%
Joshua Kelley run for 8 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Marquise Overton) to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
2.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Mike Martinez for 18 yds to the Okla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+3
2.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 3 yds to the Okla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18TD15 plays · 80 yds · 6:15100% → 100%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
0.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 16 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+17
0.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Drake Stoops for 17 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+9
0.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 9 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+8
0.2%
Hurts, Jalen pass incomplete to Haselwood, Jadon, PENALTY UCLA holding 8 yards to the UCLA7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Rhamondre Stevenson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:350% → 0%
OUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:48100% → 100%
Q4 3:35
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
0.2%
Reeves Mundschau punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kyle Philips at the UCLA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21INT5 plays · 38 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
0.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 16 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
0.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 11 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
0.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Greg Dulcich for 11 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted Ryan Jones return for no gain to the Okla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22END OF GAME4 plays · 28 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q4 1:46
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+13
0.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Trejan Bridges for 13 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:11
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 48 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)
-4.7
TD · Q3 7:34
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 8 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
+3.3
TD · Q2 13:49
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 13 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
+2.7