2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadSDAK aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreSDAK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:05 · Reeves Mundschau punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kody Case at the SDako 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:43: Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 8 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) — OU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:08: Kennedy Brooks run for 13 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) — OU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:41: Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 7 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) — OU win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SDAK made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 13:16OU 4th & 3 at OU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%average punt
- Q1 11:16SDAK 4th & 1 at SDAK 40, tiedClose callPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:25SDAK 4th & 12 at SDAK 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q2 14:41SDAK 4th & 7 at SDAK 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q2 8:05OU 4th & 30 at OU 25, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.1%average punt
- Q2 6:47SDAK 4th & 13 at SDAK 38, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q3 12:02SDAK 4th & 2 at SDAK 33, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 9:20SDAK 4th & 10 at SDAK 25, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 0:53SDAK 4th & 12 at OU 27, down 49Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call-0.0%−0.123% to convertField goal0.1%62% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 13:40OU 4th & 2 at SDAK 45, up 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%57% to convertField goal99.8%−0.225% to makePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:07SDAK 4th & 1 at OU 26, down 56Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.171% to convertField goal0.0%64% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10SDAK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 8:30OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:43OU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:08OU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:41OU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:03OU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:03OU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:03OU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:46SDAK Touchdown, down 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:29OU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:53SDAK Touchdown, down 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:59OU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:42OU Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q1 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
99.6%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Erik Swenson) to the Okla 18Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+14
99.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 14 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Reeves Mundschau punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kody Case at the SDako 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:541% → 1%
OUDrive 3TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3899% → 99%
Q1 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+48
99.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 48 yds to the SDako 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 4 yds to the SDako 20Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 2
OPP 13
-7
99.4%
Kennedy Brooks run for 3 yds to the SDako 13 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SDako 23Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+20
99.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 20 yds to the SDako 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 3 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 1:551% → 1%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.3%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Kody Case for 9 yds to the SDako 34Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+17
99.3%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Kody Case for 17 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
99.3%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Drew Greenhaw for 8 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 17
OWN 44
+5
99.3%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (LaRon Stokes) to the SDako 49Similar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 12
OWN 49
-3
99.3%
Brady Schutt punt for 45 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5TD12 plays · 97 yds · 5:3799% → 99%
Q1 4:20
3RD & 12
OWN 39
-10
99.1%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Erik Swenson) to the Okla 29Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 22
OWN 29
+27
99.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 27 yds to the SDako 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
99.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 19 yds to the SDako 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
99.1%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Adrian Ealy) to the SDako 35Similar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+17
99.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 17 yds to the SDako 18Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
99.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 8 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:591% → 1%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.1%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Kody Case for 3 yds to the SDako 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7TD5 plays · 67 yds · 1:2499% → 99%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.4%
Kennedy Brooks run for 13 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 8FUMBLE9 plays · 62 yds · 2:161% → 1%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
99.4%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Kai Henry for 9 yds to the Okla 47Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+8
99.3%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Wesley Eliodor for 8 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+8
99.3%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Connor Herrmann for 8 yds to the Okla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
99.3%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Connor Herrmann for 4 yds to the Okla 23Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+10
99.3%
Kai Henry run for 10 yds to the Okla 13 Kai Henry fumbled, forced by Neville Gallimore, recovered by Okla Brendan Radley-HilesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 2:2999% → 99%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+32
99.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 32 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-9
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the Okla 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Okla Jalen HurtsSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 15
OWN 40
-10
99.4%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Darin Greenfield for a loss of 10 yards to the Okla 30Similar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 30
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Reeves Mundschau punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kody Case at the SDako 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:131% → 1%
Q2 7:34
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-8
99.2%
Austin Simmons sacked by DaShaun White for a loss of 8 yards to the SDako 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11TD13 plays · 82 yds · 5:5799% → 100%
Q2 4:52
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
99.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Trejan Bridges for 1 yd to the Okla 43Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+12
99.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Nick Basquine for 12 yds to the SDako 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 7 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 12END OF HALF4 plays · 8 yds · 0:190% → 0%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.8%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Kai Henry for 13 yds to the SDako 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.8%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Kai Henry for 7 yds to the SDako 45Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 3
OWN 33
-12
99.8%
Austin Simmons sacked by Jalen Redmond for a loss of 12 yards to the SDako 33 SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Austin Simmons) to the SDako 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 13INT TD5 plays · 6 yds · 0:491% → 0%
SDAKDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q3 13:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
99.8%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Dakarai Allen for 5 yds to the SDako 29Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+9
99.9%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Levi Falck for 9 yds to the SDako 33Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+26
99.8%
Brady Schutt punt for 43 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for 26 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD3 plays · 50 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
50
+47
99.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 47 yds Jadon Haselwood fumbled, recovered by Okla for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:350% → 0%
OUDrive 17TD4 plays · 68 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+14
99.9%
Rhamondre Stevenson run for 14 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+40
99.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to A.D. Miller for 40 yds to the SDako 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 14 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 18TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Canaan Brooks for 1 yd to the SDako 26Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
99.9%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Dakarai Allen for 12 yds to the SDako 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+7
99.9%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Drew Greenhaw for 7 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
99.9%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Justin Broiles) to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
99.9%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Levi Falck for 11 yds to the Okla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Kody Case for 23 yds for a TD, (Mason Lorber KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
99.9%
Rhamondre Stevenson run for 75 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 20TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:360% → 0%
Q3 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+15
99.9%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Randy Baker for 15 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+15
99.9%
Kai Henry run for no gain to the Okla 40 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Okla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
99.9%
SOUTH DAKOTA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Okla 35Similar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+6
99.9%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Kody Case for 6 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+2
100.0%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Kai Henry for 2 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+27
99.9%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Caleb Vander Esch for 27 yds for a TD, (Mason Lorber KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:48100% → 100%
Q3 0:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+17
99.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Drake Stoops for 17 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+2
99.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rhamondre Stevenson for 2 yds to the SDako 45Similar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
99.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Stogner for 4 yds to the SDako 37Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+37
99.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Theo Wease for 37 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 22INT4 plays · 39 yds · 0:380% → 0%
OUDrive 23TD10 plays · 76 yds · 5:23100% → 100%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
99.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Theo Wease for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 21Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+11
99.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 11 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+33
100.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trejan Bridges for 33 yds to the SDako 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
100.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trejan Bridges for 9 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 24DOWNS12 plays · 48 yds · 4:280% → 0%
Q4 4:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
100.0%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kori Roberson) to the SDako 32Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+22
100.0%
Ben Klett run for 7 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
100.0%
Tyler Tsagalis pass complete to Randy Baker for 5 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+6
100.0%
Tyler Tsagalis pass complete to Wesley Eliodor for 6 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
100.0%
Tyler Tsagalis pass complete to Carter Kuchel for 9 yds to the Okla 26Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+5
100.0%
Tyler Tsagalis pass complete to Randy Baker for 5 yds to the Okla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:41
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 7 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q2 13:08
Kennedy Brooks run for 13 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 0:43
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 8 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)
+0.2