2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:53 · Matt Ammendola 44 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:03: Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +2.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:13: Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 51 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +5.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:42: Spencer Sanders pass incomplete — OKST win probability +2.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:37: Dru Brown pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 43 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +2.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:09: Carter Stanley pass complete to Quan Hampton for 9 yds for a TD (Liam Jones KICK) — KU win probability +1.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8KU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 15:00KU 4th & 5 at KU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snapGo for it12.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.7%average punt
- Q1 11:56KU 4th & 4 at KU 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snapGo for it13.0%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.0%average punt
- Q1 9:07OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 8, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snapGo for it86.5%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.6%average punt
- Q1 5:47KU 4th & 2 at OKST 25, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 14.0% before the snapGo for it14.0%57% to convertField goalTheir call13.9%−0.166% to makePunt13.3%−0.7average punt
- Q2 11:50OKST 4th & 14 at KU 28, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.8% before the snapGo for it87.9%−0.818% to convertField goalTheir call88.8%60% to makePunt86.3%−2.5average punt
- Q2 11:50KU 4th & 7 at KU 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snapGo for it11.6%−0.636% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.2%average punt
- Q2 10:54OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 32, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt88.4%−0.8average punt
- Q2 10:54OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 41, up 14Close callPunted · 89.0% before the snapGo for it89.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 7:24KU 4th & 4 at KU 42, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snapGo for it11.6%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.6%average punt
- Q2 0:53OKST 4th & 4 at KU 26, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.6%−0.248% to convertField goalTheir call95.8%64% to makePunt93.7%−2.1average punt
- Q2 0:34KU 4th & 7 at KU 17, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.835% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q3 15:00OKST 4th & 9 at KU 49, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.9%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.3%average punt
- Q3 12:12KU 4th & 10 at KU 8, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.527% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q3 9:35OKST 4th & 5 at midfield, up 24Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it97.0%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.9%−0.1average punt
- Q3 8:48KU 4th & 2 at KU 22, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.156% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q3 3:37KU 4th & 1 at KU 34, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.3%−0.1average punt
- Q3 3:37KU 4th & 3 at OKST 44, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%52% to convertField goal0.2%−0.227% to makePunt0.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:09OKST 4th & 9 at KU 9, up 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%89% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 1:09KU 4th & 7 at OKST 9, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−0.230% to convertField goal0.4%89% to makePunt0.1%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4KU made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
- Q1 11:56OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.9%97% to makeGo for two86.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:03OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.0%97% to makeGo for two88.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:13OKST Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%97% to makeGo for two95.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:37OKST Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:22KU Touchdown, down 25 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick0.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call0.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:09KU Touchdown, down 19 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two1.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2TD4 plays · 65 yds · 1:5087% → 87%
Q1 13:46
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+34
86.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 34 yds to the Kans 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
OKSTDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5MISSED FG4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0914% → 14%
OKSTDrive 6TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:4486% → 89%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 6 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
50
+21
86.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for 21 yds to the Kans 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+8
86.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 8 yds to the Kans 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7INT5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0312% → 13%
OKSTDrive 8MISSED FG7 plays · 22 yds · 2:3789% → 89%
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
50
+14
89.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jelani Woods for 14 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
OKSTDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
88.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
OKSTDrive 12TD2 plays · 55 yds · 0:3389% → 95%
KUDrive 13INT8 plays · 25 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 5:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
94.3%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 13 yds to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
94.0%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 9 yds to the Kans 47Similar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
50
+5
93.7%
Carter Stanley pass intercepted Kolby Harvell-Peel return for 5 yds to the Kans 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14FG9 plays · 20 yds · 1:4996% → 97%
KUDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:194% → 4%
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
95.5%
Carter Stanley pass incomplete to Stephon Robinson Jr., broken up by Tre SterlingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16MISSED FG6 plays · 32 yds · 0:2497% → 97%
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+14
97.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 14 yds to the Kans 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
96.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-3
96.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jelani Woods for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 49
+3
96.1%
Tom Hutton punt for 44 yds , Kenny Logan Jr. returns for 3 yds to the Kans 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
OKSTDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
KUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 8:48
3RD & 2
OWN 22
0
97.0%
Manny Miles pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for no gain to the Kans 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21TD6 plays · 74 yds · 3:1097% → 100%
KUDrive 22INT11 plays · 31 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
Manny Miles pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 5 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.7%
Manny Miles pass incomplete to Jack Luavasa, broken up by A.J. GreenSimilar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.7%
Thompson,Kyle punt 20 yards to the 50 yardline, out-of-bounds, PENALTY OSU roughing the kicker (Flanagan, Sean) 4 yards to the KU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
99.7%
Manny Miles pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 14 yds to the Kans 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 9
50
+6
99.7%
Manny Miles pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 6 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+17
99.7%
Manny Miles pass intercepted Kolby Harvell-Peel return for 17 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23MISSED FG5 plays · 42 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+41
99.8%
LD Brown run for 30 yds to the OKLAST 21 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, personal foul (Mike Lee) to the Kans 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24TD14 plays · 80 yds · 5:470% → 1%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.9%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Takulve Williams for 11 yds to the Kans 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
99.9%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Daylon Charlot for 12 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Carter Stanley pass incomplete to Andrew Parchment, broken up by Rodarius WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+14
99.8%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Daylon Charlot for 14 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
99.8%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 1 yd to the OKSt 42Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+14
99.8%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 14 yds to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+5
99.8%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 5 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+8
99.8%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 8 yds to the OKSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
98.9%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 14 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25PUNT9 plays · 51 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:22
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+5
99.5%
Brown, LD rush for 1 yard to the OSU26 (Hempstead,E.), PENALTY KU offside 5 yards to the OSU30, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-15
99.6%
Brown, LD rush for 10 yards to the OSU45, PENALTY OSU illegal block (Carter, Logan) 15 yards to the OSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+41
99.5%
LD Brown run for 41 yds to the OKLAST 33 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
99.7%
Tom Hutton punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kans 22 , Kenny Logan Jr. returns for 3 yds to the Kans 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 26TD13 plays · 78 yds · 2:151% → 2%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.4%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Takulve Williams for 3 yds to the Kans 25Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+12
99.4%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 12 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
99.8%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Evan Fairs for 21 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
99.7%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Quan Hampton for 10 yds to the OKSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+20
99.7%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 20 yds to the OKSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
99.7%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Takulve Williams for 3 yds to the OKSt 9Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+9
98.3%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Quan Hampton for 9 yds for a TD (Liam Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:13
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 51 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)
+5.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 2:42
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete
+2.4
TD · Q1 0:03
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)
+2.2