2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreTTU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:06 · Kyle Thompson punt for 38 yds , Chux Nwabuko III returns for no gain to the Kans 22 KANSAS Penalty, targeting (Bryce Torneden) to the Kans 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:59: Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 48 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones KICK) — KU win probability +12.9 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q4 13:42: Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 70 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones KICK) — KU win probability +22.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q4 12:18: Jett Duffey pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 48 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +24.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:12: Velton Gardner run for 32 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones KICK) — KU win probability +33.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:00: Liam Jones 32 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +27.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
- Q1 14:52TTU 4th & 6 at KU 41, tiedClose callPunted · 65.2% before the snapGo for it65.2%40% to convertField goal65.2%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call65.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:06KU 4th & 3 at KU 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snapGo for it36.0%−0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.0%average punt
- Q1 5:01TTU 4th & 1 at KU 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.9%59% to convertField goal61.3%−0.694% to makePunt59.7%−2.2average punt
- Q1 5:01KU 4th & 6 at TTU 39, down 7Close callPunted · 35.3% before the snapGo for it35.5%40% to convertField goal35.2%−0.336% to makePuntTheir call35.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 14:56TTU 4th & 2 at KU 6, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 66.2% before the snapGo for it66.1%52% to convertField goalTheir call65.6%−0.691% to makePunt62.3%−3.9average punt
- Q2 14:50KU 4th & 13 at KU 40, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snapGo for it31.6%−0.520% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.1%average punt
- Q2 12:39TTU 4th & 1 at KU 20, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.9%71% to convertField goal66.0%−0.875% to makePunt63.4%−3.5average punt
- Q2 4:37TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 36, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snapGo for it68.8%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.2%average punt
- Q3 13:54KU 4th & 7 at KU 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snapGo for it26.9%−0.737% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.6%average punt
- Q3 5:39TTU 4th & 2 at KU 9, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snapGo for it76.0%54% to convertField goalTheir call74.6%−1.489% to makePunt65.9%−10.1average punt
- Q3 3:50TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snapGo for it73.3%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.7%average punt
- Q4 12:11KU 4th & 6 at KU 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snapGo for it26.0%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.3%average punt
- Q4 10:26TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 26, up 7Close callPunted · 77.2% before the snapGo for it77.5%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.3%−0.2average punt
- Q4 5:12TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 34, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 6.3 ptsPunted · 49.7% before the snapGo for it53.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.5%−6.3average punt
- Q4 0:02KU 4th & 2 at TTU 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snapGo for it52.4%−13.257% to convertField goalTheir call65.6%72% to makePunt38.7%−26.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 5:01TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.0%97% to makeGo for two63.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:19TTU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.2%97% to makeGo for two75.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:41KU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.9%97% to makeGo for two29.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:59KU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.0%97% to makeGo for two38.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:00TTU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.3%97% to makeGo for two71.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:56KU Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call28.6%97% to makeGo for two28.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:42KU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.3%97% to makeGo for two47.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:18TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.6%97% to makeGo for two69.3%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 5:12KU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.5%97% to makeGo for two46.3%−1.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.5%
Carter Stanley pass intercepted Douglas Coleman III return for no gain to the TexTc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2PUNT11 plays · 26 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
31.5%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 2 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+7
31.5%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Travis Koontz for 7 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
31.5%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 5 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+9
31.5%
Jett Duffey pass complete to KeSean Carter for 9 yds to the Kans 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 11:06
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
33.0%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for no gain to the Kans 22Similar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
32.9%
Kyle Thompson punt for 38 yds , Chux Nwabuko III returns for no gain to the Kans 22 KANSAS Penalty, targeting (Bryce Torneden) to the Kans 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4TD8 plays · 45 yds · 6:0567% → 68%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
32.7%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Donta Thompson for 23 yds to the Kans 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
32.7%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 22 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6FG15 plays · 74 yds · 4:0268% → 69%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
32.5%
Jett Duffey pass complete to R.J. Turner for 6 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+5
32.1%
KANSAS Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
31.5%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Armand Shyne for 9 yds to the Kans 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
31.1%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 6 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 11
OWN 42
-2
31.4%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 40Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
30.7%
Carter Stanley pass incomplete to Daylon Charlot, broken up by Damarcus FieldsSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 13
OWN 40
+5
30.4%
Kyle Thompson punt for 45 yds , Chux Nwabuko III returns for 5 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8TD11 plays · 80 yds · 4:2069% → 80%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
31.1%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Armand Shyne for 4 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+32
30.6%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Travis Koontz for 32 yds to the Kans 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
30.3%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 6 yds to the Kans 23Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 4
OPP 23
-1
30.3%
Jett Duffey pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 24Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
19.6%
Jett Duffey pass complete to McLane Mannix for 9 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9TD10 plays · 78 yds · 3:3223% → 31%
Q2 8:13
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+10
23.2%
Stanley, Carter pass incomplete to Williams, Pooka, PENALTY TTU holding (Coleman, Douglas) 10 yards to the KU36, 1ST DOWN KU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
24.0%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 7 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+53
24.2%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 53 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 4:37
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+8
28.6%
Duffey, Jett pass incomplete to Turner, RJ (Mayberry, Kyle), PENALTY KU pass interference (Mayberry, Kyle) 8 yards to the TTU19, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
28.3%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Jett Duffey for 14 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
28.0%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 3 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
28.9%
Austin McNamara punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kenny Logan Jr. at the Kans 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11TD7 plays · 84 yds · 1:2027% → 41%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
27.0%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 5 yds to the Kans 21Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+11
27.3%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 11 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
28.3%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 9 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+48
40.5%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 48 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12END OF HALF4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0064% → 65%
Q2 0:44
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+10
35.9%
Duffey, Jett pass incomplete to Vasher, T.J., PENALTY KU holding (Defense, Hasan) 10 yards to the TTU27, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13TD5 plays · 70 yds · 1:0064% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+28
36.3%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Donta Thompson for 28 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
34.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 23 yds to the Kans 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
25.1%
Jett Duffey pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 19 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 13:54
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
25.4%
Kyle Thompson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Chux Nwabuko III at the TexTc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15FG17 plays · 68 yds · 6:3474% → 85%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
25.7%
Jett Duffey pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 14 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
24.8%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 7 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+3
24.3%
Jett Duffey pass complete to KeSean Carter for 3 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 7
50
0
24.3%
Jett Duffey pass incomplete to T.J. Vasher, broken up by Elmore Hempstead Jr.Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+15
25.4%
Duffey, Jett pass incomplete to Carter, KeSean, PENALTY KU pass interference (Elmore Hempstead) 15 yards to the KU40, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
24.3%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 3 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 2
OPP 9
0
24.6%
SaRodorick Thompson run for no gain to the Kans 9 SaRodorick Thompson fumbled, forced by Davon Ferguson,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4320% → 28%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
19.9%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 10 yds to the Kans 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+6
19.5%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 6 yds to the Kans 35Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+65
28.1%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 65 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+12
25.7%
Jett Duffey pass complete to KeSean Carter for 12 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
24.4%
Duffey, Jett pass complete to Thompson, SaRodorick for 9 yards to the KU46, out-of-bounds (Johnson, Kyron), PENALTY TTU holding (Deaton, Dawson) 10 yards to the TTU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 17
OWN 38
0
26.2%
Jett Duffey pass incomplete to McLane Mannix, broken up by Najee Stevens-McKenzieSimilar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
26.2%
Austin McNamara punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kenny Logan Jr. at the Kans 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18TD8 plays · 86 yds · 2:1729% → 49%
Q3 0:59
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+9
27.5%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 9 yds to the Kans 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+14
26.7%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 14 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
29.5%
Carter Stanley run for a loss of 8 yards to the Kans 30 Carter Stanley fumbled, recovered by Kans Pooka Williams Jr.Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 21
OWN 30
+70
48.9%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 70 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2453% → 80%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
47.1%
Duffey, Jett pass incomplete to Thompson, Donta, PENALTY KU personal foul (Darrius Moragne) 15 yards to the TTU40, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
19.6%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 48 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
26.3%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 10 yds to the Kans 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-15
27.1%
Stanley, Carter pass complete to Charlot, Daylon for 21 yards to the TTU39, out-of-bounds (Benson, Xavier), PENALTY KU illegal block (Williams, Pooka) 15 yards to the KU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 25
OWN 25
0
25.5%
Carter Stanley pass incomplete to Andrew Parchment, broken up by Damarcus FieldsSimilar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 25
OWN 25
+19
24.1%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 19 yds to the Kans 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
KUDrive 22TD10 plays · 70 yds · 3:5025% → 63%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
24.7%
Carter Stanley sacked by Eli Howard for a loss of 10 yards to the Kans 20Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 20
OWN 20
+10
23.8%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 10 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+11
22.6%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Daylon Charlot for 11 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+14
23.0%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 14 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
29.4%
Carter Stanley pass complete to James Sosinski for 5 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
48.4%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 9 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+40
49.4%
Austin McNamara punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kenny Logan Jr. at the KANSAS 21 TEXAS TECH Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Kans 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24MISSED FG15 plays · 52 yds · 3:5056% → 62%
Q4 3:52
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+6
54.3%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 6 yds to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
57.9%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Daylon Charlot for 5 yds to the Kans 43Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+6
58.8%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
50
+20
61.0%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 20 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
64.6%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 7 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+1
64.6%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 1 yd to the TexTc 22Similar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+40
62.3%
Liam Jones 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Nick McCann , return for no gain to the TexTc 14 Douglas Coleman III fumbled, recovered by Kans Kevin Feder , return for no gain to the TexTc 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 25FG2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:12
Velton Gardner run for 32 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones KICK)
+33.1
FG · Q4 0:00
Liam Jones 32 yd FG GOOD
+27.4
TD · Q4 12:18
Jett Duffey pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 48 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
-24.3