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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:36 · Kyle Thompson punt for 61 yds for a 1ST down , CeeDee Lamb returns for 46 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (Kyle Thompson) to the Kans 10 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:35: Carter Stanley pass complete to Daylon Charlot for 22 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones KICK) — KU win probability +1.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:26: Trey Sermon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +1.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:51: Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +2.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:31: Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 10 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +3.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:19: Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +2.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:49KU 4th & 9 at KU 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q1 8:49OU 4th & 10 at OU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.3%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.4%average punt
- Q2 10:48KU 4th & 2 at OU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.3%57% to convertField goal9.9%−0.432% to makePunt10.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 5:28KU 4th & 9 at KU 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snapGo for it8.3%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.5%average punt
- Q2 0:36KU 4th & 10 at KU 2, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it7.2%−2.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.4%average punt
- Q3 9:10KU 4th & 6 at KU 29, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q3 1:37KU 4th & 18 at OU 44, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.113% to convertField goal0.5%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q4 10:58KU 4th & 1 at OU 39, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%70% to convertField goal0.1%−0.136% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:47OU 4th & 6 at KU 15, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%83% to makePunt99.3%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 3:35KU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.4%97% to makeGo for two7.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:26OU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.5%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:51OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.6%97% to makeGo for two91.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:31OU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:19OU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:18OU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:45OU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:35KU Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:46KU Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call0.6%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 3:062% → 3%
OUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 2:4197% → 97%
Q1 10:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
2.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 15 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3TD11 plays · 98 yds · 5:143% → 6%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
3.7%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 12 yds to the Kans 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+6
4.2%
Carter Stanley pass complete to James Sosinski for 6 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
4.5%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 19 yds to the Okla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
4.7%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 4 yds to the Okla 22Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+22
5.9%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Daylon Charlot for 22 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4TD8 plays · 77 yds · 1:5494% → 95%
Q1 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+11
5.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Rhamondre Stevenson for 11 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+20
6.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Brayden Willis for 20 yds to the Kans 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
5.9%
KANSAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kyron Johnson) to the Kans 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5DOWNS11 plays · 39 yds · 5:276% → 8%
OUDrive 6TD9 plays · 59 yds · 2:5293% → 94%
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+15
7.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 15 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
7.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Lee Morris for 19 yds to the Kans 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+16
7.3%
KANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Mike Lee) to the Kans 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 37 yds · 2:126% → 7%
Q2 5:28
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
6.9%
Kyle Thompson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8PUNT14 plays · 48 yds · 3:4593% → 92%
Q2 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+24
7.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Nick Basquine for 24 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
7.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 17 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
6.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Brayden Willis for 18 yds to the Kans 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+21
6.6%
Nick Basquine pass complete to Jalen Hurts for 21 yds to the Kans 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
6.7%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyrese Robinson) to the Kans 17Similar
Q2 2:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
-8
6.4%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Codey Cole III for a loss of 8 yards to the Kans 25Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 0
OPP 25
-3
6.2%
CeeDee Lamb run for a loss of 20 yards to the Kans 48 Jalen Hurts Rush for loss of 3 yards Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 48
+19
7.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 19 yds to the Kans 29Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 29
-15
7.6%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Marquis Hayes) to the Kans 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 0 yds · 0:348% → 9%
Q2 0:36
4TH & 10
OWN 2
+46
8.5%
Kyle Thompson punt for 61 yds for a 1ST down , CeeDee Lamb returns for 46 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (Kyle Thompson) to the Kans 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10TD1 play · 10 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
4.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 10 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11END OF HALF5 plays · 1 yds · 0:256% → 5%
OUDrive 12TD12 plays · 84 yds · 4:3695% → 98%
KUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:033% → 3%
Q3 9:10
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
3.2%
Kyle Thompson punt for 44 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for no gain to the Okla 29 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chanse Sylvie) to the Okla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14TD7 plays · 83 yds · 2:4798% → 99%
KUDrive 15PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 4:182% → 1%
Q3 4:46
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+11
1.4%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Daylon Charlot for 11 yds to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-8
0.9%
Carter Stanley sacked by Brian D - Asamoah and TEAM for a loss of 8 yards to the Okla 44Similar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 18
OPP 44
0
0.8%
Kyle Thompson punt for 28 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16INT5 plays · 19 yds · 1:3299% → 100%
KUDrive 17DOWNS8 plays · 27 yds · 3:471% → 0%
OUDrive 18TD1 play · 61 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19TD5 plays · 75 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.2%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Bryan Mead) to the Kans 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
0.2%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 11 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
0.2%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Justin Broiles) to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
0.2%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 39 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20FG13 plays · 60 yds · 4:26100% → 100%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Drake Stoops for 9 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
0.2%
KANSAS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Darrius Moragne) to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+14
0.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Trejan Bridges for 14 yds to the Kans 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21TD8 plays · 70 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
0.1%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 5 yds to the Kans 35Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+11
0.1%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 11 yds to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+37
0.1%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 37 yds to the Okla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-7
0.1%
Carter Stanley sacked by Pat Fields for a loss of 7 yards to the Okla 24Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 17
OPP 24
+24
0.2%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 24 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER6 plays · 35 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
Q4 0:45
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+5
0.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Trejan Bridges for 5 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:31
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 10 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
-3.9
TD · Q3 10:19
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
-2.8
TD · Q2 7:51
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gabe Brkic KICK)
-2.1