2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:38 · Josh Growden punt for 34 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 10:31: Martell Pettaway run for 23 yds for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +11.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:08: Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 75 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones KICK) — KU win probability +17.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 12:35: Evan Staley 22 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +9.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:04: Martell Pettaway run for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declined — WVU win probability +9.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:10: Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 3 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones KICK) — KU win probability +16.3 pts (now 29%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 15:00KU 4th & 5 at KU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snapGo for it39.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.8%average punt
- Q1 5:10KU 4th & 2 at KU 47, down 7Close callPunted · 39.5% before the snapGo for it39.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.4%−0.3average punt
- Q1 5:03WVU 4th & 14 at WVU 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snapGo for it60.3%−0.718% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.0%average punt
- Q1 3:13KU 4th & 1 at KU 19, down 7Close callPunted · 38.4% before the snapGo for it38.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.0%−0.8average punt
- Q2 15:00WVU 4th & 12 at WVU 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snapGo for it61.0%−1.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.1%average punt
- Q2 8:39WVU 4th & 11 at KU 30, tiedClose callWent for it · 54.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.1%−0.626% to convertField goal54.7%56% to makePunt53.8%−0.9average punt
- Q2 5:34WVU 4th & 3 at KU 25, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 56.1% before the snapGo for it56.0%52% to convertField goalTheir call55.3%−0.766% to makePunt50.9%−5.1average punt
- Q2 5:34KU 4th & 4 at KU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snapGo for it46.7%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.0%average punt
- Q2 3:42WVU 4th & 18 at WVU 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snapGo for it49.6%−2.811% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.4%average punt
- Q2 1:01KU 4th & 16 at KU 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snapGo for it44.8%−1.815% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.6%average punt
- Q3 6:06KU 4th & 4 at WVU 4, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 25.9% before the snapGo for it25.9%40% to convertField goalTheir call25.2%−0.793% to makePunt17.0%−8.9average punt
- Q3 4:20WVU 4th & 5 at KU 26, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.7% before the snapGo for it71.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalTheir call71.1%64% to makePunt64.2%−6.9average punt
- Q4 12:35WVU 4th & 5 at KU 5, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.5% before the snapGo for it62.1%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call62.2%92% to makePunt46.1%−16.1average punt
- Q4 0:38WVU 4th & 7 at KU 34, up 5Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsPunted · 87.9% before the snapGo for it87.7%−0.537% to convertField goal88.2%47% to makePuntTheir call86.4%−1.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 7:37WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.7%97% to makeGo for two59.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:06KU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.0%97% to makeGo for two44.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:31WVU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.5%97% to makeGo for two71.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:08KU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.7%97% to makeGo for two38.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 5:04WVU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick92.2%−0.897% to makeGo for twoTheir call93.0%45% to convert
- Q4 2:10KU Touchdown, down 6 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call10.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two10.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2TD13 plays · 71 yds · 5:5960% → 62%
Q1 13:36
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+18
40.4%
Austin Kendall pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 18 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
40.2%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 6 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+3
40.2%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Sam James for 3 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+15
40.2%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 15 yds to the Kans 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2740% → 40%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
39.5%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 14 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-6
39.7%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 34Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+13
39.1%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Daylon Charlot for 13 yds to the Kans 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
39.2%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Sam James for 8 yds to the WVirg 39Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+5
38.7%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Winston Wright for 5 yds to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-10
38.8%
McKoy, Kennedy rush for 4 yards to the WVU48 (Lee, Mike), PENALTY WVU holding (Mays, Briason) 10 yards to the WVU34, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 3:13
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+8
39.0%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 8 yds to the Kans 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1162% → 61%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
37.9%
McKoy, Kennedy rush for 4 yards to the WVU47 (Prox, Dru), PENALTY KU offside (N. Stevens-McKenzie) 5 yards to the WVU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-7
38.0%
Austin Kendall sacked by Darrius Moragne and Najee Stevens-McKenzie for a loss of 7 yards to the WVirg 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4339% → 49%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
39.1%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 10 yds to the Kans 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+13
40.2%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 13 yds to the WVirg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
49.3%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 28 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8DOWNS11 plays · 45 yds · 3:2755% → 54%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.1%
Austin Kendall pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 2 yds to the WVirg 27Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
45.4%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Sean Ryan for 10 yds to the WVirg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
42.6%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Ali Jennings for 6 yds to the Kans 23Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 4
OPP 23
-10
42.6%
Austin Kendall sacked by Dru Prox for a loss of 10 yards to the Kans 33Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+3
45.4%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Sam James for 3 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 11
OPP 30
0
46.3%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to T.J. Simmons, broken up by Jeremiah McCulloughSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9FUMBLE2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0049% → 51%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
49.1%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Daylon Charlot for 9 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 1
OWN 40
0
50.6%
Carter Stanley sacked by Dante Stills for 0 yards to the Kans 45 Carter Stanley fumbled, recovered by WVirg Josh Chandler , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10MISSED FG6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5357% → 55%
Q2 7:27
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+7
43.2%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Sam James for 7 yds to the Kans 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 5:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
49.2%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 1 yd to the Kans 31Similar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+51
48.7%
Kyle Thompson punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KANSAS 28 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the WVirg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q2 3:42
3RD & 11
OWN 17
-7
48.0%
Austin Kendall sacked by Caleb Sampson for a loss of 7 yards to the WVirg 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:0653% → 48%
Q2 2:07
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+1
52.7%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 1 yd to the Kans 46Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-8
51.2%
Carter Stanley sacked by Dylan Tonkery for a loss of 8 yards to the Kans 38Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 16
OWN 38
+16
48.4%
Kyle Thompson punt for 49 yds , Alec Sinkfield returns for 16 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14FG10 plays · 51 yds · 0:4954% → 63%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
45.7%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Winston Wright for 9 yds to the WVirg 38Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 8
50
+9
43.1%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Sam James for 9 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
42.5%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 7 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+10
40.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 10 yds to the Kans 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
41.1%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Ali Jennings for 4 yds to the Kans 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 15TD11 plays · 70 yds · 4:2459% → 73%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
40.7%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 6 yds to the WVirg 36Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+9
39.7%
Austin Kendall pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 9 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+4
39.1%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Sean Ryan for 4 yds to the Kans 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+11
38.7%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Sam James for 11 yds to the Kans 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16FG13 plays · 71 yds · 4:2528% → 35%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
28.9%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 17 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
30.3%
Stanley, Carter pass incomplete to Harris, Corione, PENALTY WVU pass interference (Bailey, Hakeem) 12 yards to the WVU31, 1ST DOWN KU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
30.1%
Carter Stanley pass incomplete to Andrew Parchment, broken up by Hakeem BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17FG5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4573% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
42.2%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 75 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19FG16 plays · 73 yds · 6:2860% → 73%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
39.6%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Colton McKivitz) to the WVirg 17Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+17
40.3%
Austin Kendall pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 17 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
38.3%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Winston Wright for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
50
+8
36.2%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Ali Jennings for 8 yds to the Kans 42Similar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
35.0%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 6 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+15
39.1%
Kendall, Austin pass incomplete to Campbell, George, PENALTY KU pass interference (Defense, Hasan) 15 yards to the KU9, 1ST DOWN WVU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
36.7%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to T.J. Simmons, broken up by Jeremiah McCulloughSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20INT5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0036% → 39%
WVUDrive 21TD12 plays · 51 yds · 5:3677% → 95%
KUDrive 22TD12 plays · 70 yds · 2:498% → 29%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
7.9%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 7 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
8.7%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Daylon Charlot for 11 yds to the WVirg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
9.7%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 11 yds to the WVirg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
12.2%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 9 yds to the WVirg 16Similar
Q4 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
12.2%
Stanley, Carter pass incomplete to Andrew Parchment, PENALTY WVU holding (Raines, Kwantel) 4 yards to the WVU4, 1ST DOWN KU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
28.5%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 3 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23PUNT9 plays · 14 yds · 1:3290% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24END OF GAME6 plays · 68 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q4 0:32
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+19
9.3%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 19 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
10.8%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 9 yds to the Kans 48Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
11.3%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Daylon Charlot for 19 yds to the WVirg 12 for a 1ST down lat. to Andrew Parchment for 18 yds to the WVirg 12 for a 1ST down lat. to Pooka Williams Jr. for 3 yds to the WVirg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:08
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 75 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones KICK)
+17.9
TD · Q4 2:10
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 3 yds for a TD, (Liam Jones KICK)
+16.3
TD · Q3 10:31
Martell Pettaway run for 23 yds for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK)
-11.4