2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreCCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:07 · Kyle Thompson punt for 55 yds , Jaivon Heiligh returns for 12 yds to the CCaro 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:41: Fred Payton pass complete to CJ Marable for 20 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi PAT MISSED) — CCU win probability +7.6 pts (now 37%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:58: CJ Marable run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CCU win probability +19.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 3:57: Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete — CCU win probability +9.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:01: CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the Kans 25 — CCU win probability +12.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:44: Timeout COASTL CAROLINA, clock 00:44 — CCU win probability +11.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 11:32CCU 4th & 6 at CCU 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snapGo for it30.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.1%average punt
- Q1 8:07KU 4th & 18 at KU 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snapGo for it69.8%−0.612% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.4%average punt
- Q2 14:56CCU 4th & 14 at KU 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.2% before the snapGo for it27.3%−0.916% to convertField goalTheir call28.2%84% to makePunt25.3%−2.9average punt
- Q2 12:05CCU 4th & 16 at CCU 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snapGo for it26.6%−1.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.8%average punt
- Q2 6:20KU 4th & 16 at KU 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snapGo for it70.6%−1.714% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.3%average punt
- Q3 14:56CCU 4th & 11 at CCU 6, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snapGo for it29.5%−1.923% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.3%average punt
- Q3 7:51KU 4th & 1 at CCU 41, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call50.8%70% to convertField goal44.4%−6.432% to makePunt45.3%−5.5average punt
- Q4 14:22KU 4th & 4 at CCU 17, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.1%47% to convertField goal43.0%−0.280% to makePunt26.2%−16.9average punt
- Q4 8:32CCU 4th & 1 at KU 41, up 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.9%70% to convertField goal61.3%−8.632% to makePunt62.5%−7.4average punt
- Q4 5:35CCU 4th & 6 at KU 10, up 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snapGo for it72.8%−0.435% to convertField goalTheir call73.2%88% to makePunt55.6%−17.5average punt
- Q4 5:35KU 4th & 3 at KU 27, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt25.0%−2.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 11:32KU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.7%97% to makeGo for two69.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:41CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call33.9%97% to makeGo for two33.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:58CCU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick54.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call54.1%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1TD9 plays · 65 yds · 3:2868% → 69%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+6
68.4%
Carter Stanley pass complete to James Sosinski for 6 yds to the Kans 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
68.4%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 11 yds to the CCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-8
68.4%
Carter Stanley sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the CCaro 41 Carter Stanley fumbled, recovered by Kans James Sosinski , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
69.0%
Fred Payton pass complete to Shadell Bell for 6 yds to the CCaro 42Similar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-5
69.0%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Shadell Bell) to the CCaro 40Similar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
69.1%
Myles Prosser punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Pooka Williams Jr. at the Kans 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3PUNT10 plays · 20 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q1 8:07
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+15
69.6%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 15 yds to the Kans 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
70.0%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Velton Gardner for 2 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 13
OWN 40
-5
69.5%
Thompson, Kyle punt 53 yards to the CCU7, Heiligh, J. return to the CCU10 (Hempstead, E.), PENALTY KU illegal formation 5 yards to the KU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 18
OWN 35
+12
69.4%
Kyle Thompson punt for 55 yds , Jaivon Heiligh returns for 12 yds to the CCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4MISSED FG10 plays · 64 yds · 4:1130% → 29%
Q1 4:07
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+24
70.3%
Fred Payton pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 24 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5INT6 plays · 41 yds · 0:0071% → 72%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
71.3%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 11 yds to the Kans 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
72.1%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 11 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
72.2%
Carter Stanley pass intercepted Chandler Kryst return for no gain to the CCaro 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6PUNT12 plays · 40 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
71.2%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 12 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-7
70.3%
Bryce Carpenter sacked by Azur Kamara for a loss of 7 yards to the CCaro 44Similar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
71.9%
Myles Prosser punt for 41 yds , Kwamie Lassiter II returns for no gain to the Kans 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q2 6:20
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-10
72.9%
Carter Stanley sacked by Alex Spillum for a loss of 10 yards to the Kans 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8TD7 plays · 64 yds · 2:0028% → 37%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
71.1%
Fred Payton pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 22 yds to the Kans 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+19
69.6%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 19 yds to the Kans 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-8
70.2%
Fred Payton sacked by Bryce Torneden and Jelani Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the Kans 20 Fred Payton fumbled, recovered by CCaro , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 18
OPP 20
+20
62.7%
Fred Payton pass complete to CJ Marable for 20 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9MISSED FG11 plays · 48 yds · 0:3968% → 70%
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
68.0%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 3 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+10
66.2%
Carter Stanley pass complete to James Sosinski for 10 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
68.6%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 15 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
69.5%
Carter Stanley pass complete to James Sosinski for 20 yds to the CCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -4 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
66.8%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Jai Williams, broken up by Hasan DefenseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12INT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-8
70.0%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the CCaro 37 KANSAS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the CCaro 47Similar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 18
OPP 47
+1
68.6%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 1 yd to the CCaro 46Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+25
69.0%
Carter Stanley pass intercepted Chandler Kryst return for 25 yds to the Kans 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13TD8 plays · 44 yds · 3:2738% → 61%
Q3 11:25
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+19
62.4%
CJ Marable run for 4 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Darrius Moragne) to the Kans 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+9
60.6%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to T'Qele Holmes for 9 yds to the Kans 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
39.3%
CJ Marable run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14DOWNS9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0046% → 48%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
47.4%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 7 yds to the Kans 46Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
49.1%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
50.2%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 2 yds to the CCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -22 yds · 0:0062% → 55%
Q3 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-15
39.0%
Carpenter, B. pass incomplete, PENALTY CCU illegal block (Fitzgerald, S.) 15 yards to the CCU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 25
OWN 26
0
42.0%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Isaiah Likely, broken up by Dru ProxSimilar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 25
OWN 26
-7
43.2%
Bryce Carpenter sacked by Darrius Moragne for a loss of 7 yards to the CCaro 19Similar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 32
OWN 19
+7
44.6%
Myles Prosser punt for 42 yds , Kwamie Lassiter II returns for 7 yds to the Kans 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16DOWNS10 plays · 38 yds · 3:2445% → 40%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
48.8%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 10 yds to the CCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17MISSED FG16 plays · 74 yds · 8:3964% → 77%
KUDrive 18DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q4 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
28.8%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 8 yds to the Kans 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19END OF GAME7 plays · 12 yds · 3:1786% → 97%
Q4 4:01
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+5
14.4%
Hairston, J. rush for 2 yards to the KU23 (Terry, DaJon), PENALTY KU substitution infraction (Kamara, Azur) 5 yards to the KU20, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:58
CJ Marable run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-19.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:01
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the Kans 25
-12
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:44
Timeout COASTL CAROLINA, clock 00:44
-11.3