Try the model
ISU

Iowa State 17 at Kansas State 27

KSU
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Joe Rivera punt for 42 yds, downed at the KanSt 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Pregame prior−7.4Home team on offense−1.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:28: Jacardia Wright run for 12 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK) — KSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:42: Breece Hall run for 1 yd for a TD KANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +14.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 1:31: Blake Lynch 43 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:24: Jordon Brown run for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK) — KSU win probability +26.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:04: Blake Lynch 27 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ISU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 14:47ISU 4th & 5 at KSU 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:09KSU 4th & 12 at KSU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:26ISU 4th & 8 at KSU 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:17KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:21ISU 4th & 3 at KSU 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:28ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:41KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:51ISU 4th & 13 at KSU 26, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.6%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−5.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:56KSU 4th & 8 at KSU 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:42ISU 4th & 1 at KSU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−2.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−10.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00ISU 4th & 18 at ISU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−3.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:04ISU 4th & 21 at ISU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−4.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:49ISU 4th & 7 at KSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−10.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:31KSU 4th & 7 at ISU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−11.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00ISU 4th & 12 at ISU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−4.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:19ISU 4th & 12 at ISU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−2.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:04KSU 4th & 9 at ISU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−4.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:04ISU 4th & 6 at KSU 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:28KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:59ISU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:42ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:24KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
35.7%
Breece Hall run for 20 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
35.7%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the KanSt 44Similar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+3
35.7%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q1 14:47
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+1
35.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 1 yd to the KanSt 40Similar
Q1 14:47
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+32
35.7%
Joe Rivera punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 16 KANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Wyatt Hubert) to the KanSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
37.7%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+5
37.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Logan Long for 5 yds to the KanSt 15Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+4
37.6%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the KanSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
37.7%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the KanSt 21Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+4
37.7%
Dalton Schoen run for 4 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 4
OWN 25
-8
37.6%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Will McDonald for a loss of 8 yards to the KanSt 17Similar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 12
OWN 17
0
37.5%
Devin Anctil punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
39.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 4 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+3
39.7%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
39.8%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 3
OPP 34
-5
40.2%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 39Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
40.4%
Joe Rivera punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
41.3%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the KanSt 12Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 7
OWN 12
0
41.3%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 7
OWN 12
0
41.1%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
4TH & 7
OWN 12
0
40.8%
Devin Anctil punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
41.4%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
41.6%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Breece HallSimilar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+7
41.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 7 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
41.7%
Joe Rivera punt for 46 yds, downed at the KanSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 98 yds · 6:5343% → 57%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
42.9%
Jordon Brown run for 8 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+1
42.9%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the KanSt 11Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+2
42.5%
Skylar Thompson run for 2 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
42.9%
Skylar Thompson run for 11 yds to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
43.0%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+12
43.3%
Jordon Brown run for 12 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
43.7%
Joshua Youngblood run for 6 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+1
43.8%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the KanSt 49Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+27
43.5%
Skylar Thompson run for 12 yds to the KANSASST 39 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, personal foul (Lawrence White) to the IowSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
48.4%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Dalton SchoenSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
48.3%
Skylar Thompson run for no gain to the IowSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+12
47.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Joshua Youngblood for 12 yds to the IowSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
57.2%
Jacardia Wright run for 12 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.1%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
53.7%
Hall, Breece rush for 45 yards to the KS25, out-of-bounds (Goolsby, Denzel), PENALTY ISU holding (Soehner, Dylan) 10 yards to the ISU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
54.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 6 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
54.4%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete IOWA ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
54.7%
Joe Rivera punt for 65 yds, downed at the KanSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
57.8%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the KanSt 9Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+6
57.7%
Skylar Thompson run for 6 yds to the KanSt 15Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 4
OWN 15
0
57.4%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to James GilbertSimilar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 4
OWN 15
+36
56.7%
Devin Anctil punt for 64 yds , Tarique Milton returns for 36 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:5243% → 50%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
56.9%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+18
56.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 18 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
55.6%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 28Similar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 15
OPP 28
0
56.8%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Chase AllenSimilar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+1
56.9%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the KanSt 27Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 14
OPP 27
+1
57.9%
Brock Purdy run for 1 yd to the KanSt 26Similar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 13
OPP 26
+13
58.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 13 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
55.6%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 15Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+15
50.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
55.3%
Jordon Brown run for 6 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-5
56.5%
Thompson, S. pass incomplete to Youngblood, J., PENALTY KS ineligible downfield on pass (Kaltmayer, Nick) 5 yards to the KS32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+1
55.1%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the KanSt 33Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+9
54.4%
Jordon Brown run for 9 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
56.7%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Chabastin TaylorSimilar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
56.0%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
55.3%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Dalton SchoenSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
53.8%
Devin Anctil punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:1344% → 59%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+60
56.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 60 yds to the KanSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
51.7%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Kolar, Charlie, PENALTY KS holding (McPherson, J.) 10 yards to the KS10, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
51.7%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the KanSt 4Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
51.7%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Breece HallSimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
53.2%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the KanSt 1Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.0%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd for a TD KANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
47.8%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:0057% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 6 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-6
42.2%
Brock Purdy run for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 22 Brock Purdy fumbled, recovered by IowSt Tarique MiltonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
45.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Tarique MiltonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-5
46.0%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 17Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
46.0%
Joe Rivera punt for 42 yds, downed at the KanSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
50.0%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the KanSt 42Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+2
49.4%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-3
49.0%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Will McDonald for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 46 Skylar Thompson fumbled, recovered by IowSt Eyioma Uwazurike , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0059% → 54%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
41.3%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 14
50
-7
43.3%
Brock Purdy sacked by Kyle Ball for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 43Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 21
OWN 43
0
44.8%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to La'Michael Pettway, broken up by Da'Quan PattonSimilar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 21
OWN 43
0
46.4%
Joe Rivera punt for 34 yds, downed at the KanSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
48.4%
Skylar Thompson pass intercepted Greg Eisworth return for no gain to the KanSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:3058% → 61%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
41.6%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 44Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+11
42.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 11 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
40.5%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Breece HallSimilar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
40.6%
Breece Hall run for 11 yds to the KanSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
40.2%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the KanSt 22Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+8
40.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 8 yds to the KanSt 14Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 2
OPP 14
-5
41.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 19Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
38.6%
Connor Assalley 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 5:0941% → 53%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
40.9%
Jordon Brown run for 7 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
43.4%
Jacardia Wright run for 4 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+22
41.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Chabastin Taylor for 22 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
45.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 47Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+19
45.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 19 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
47.2%
Jacardia Wright run for no gain to the IowSt 28Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
47.1%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+1
45.2%
Skylar Thompson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 25Similar
Q3 1:31
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
52.9%
Blake Lynch 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:2353% → 49%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
46.9%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Bryce Meeker) to the IowSt 25Similar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
47.7%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Tarique MiltonSimilar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 15
OWN 25
-1
48.2%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 24Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 16
OWN 24
+4
49.5%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
51.4%
Joe Rivera punt for 25 yds, downed at the KanSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 4:2857% → 86%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
56.6%
Jacardia Wright run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
50
+6
57.1%
Jordon Brown run for 6 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+5
56.8%
Jordon Brown run for 5 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
57.5%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 40Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+9
57.2%
Joshua Youngblood run for 9 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+12
56.9%
Skylar Thompson run for 12 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
58.8%
Jacardia Wright run for 4 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
85.7%
Jordon Brown run for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 10 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
77.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 1 yd to the IowSt 30Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+7
77.4%
Breece Hall run for 7 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+4
76.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 4 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
76.2%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Trevor Downing) to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
77.9%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr.Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 15
OWN 36
0
78.2%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+8
79.4%
Brock Purdy run for 8 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 7
OWN 44
-5
78.6%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Chase Allen) to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
79.7%
Joe Rivera punt for 17 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for no gain to the KanSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23FG
7 plays · 47 yds · 3:5588% → 93%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+37
88.3%
Jacardia Wright run for 37 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
88.8%
Joshua Youngblood run for 11 yds to the IowSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
88.8%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the IowSt 6Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
88.8%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the IowSt 4Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
88.1%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the IowSt 4Similar
Q4 6:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
86.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (Skylar Thompson) to the IowSt 9Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
92.7%
Blake Lynch 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+26
93.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 26 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
92.2%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the KanSt 40Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
91.8%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Tarique Milton, broken up by Jonathan AlexanderSimilar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
92.5%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to La'Michael Pettway, broken up by Elijah SullivanSimilar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
93.1%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie Kolar, broken up by Jonathan AlexanderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4295% → 96%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
95.1%
Harry Trotter run for 3 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+9
96.1%
Jordon Brown run for 9 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the KanSt 45Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 17
OWN 45
-3
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:24
Jordon Brown run for 15 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)
+26.9
TD · Q2 0:42
Breece Hall run for 1 yd for a TD KANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Connor Assalley KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q2 13:28
Jacardia Wright run for 12 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)
+9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com