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TEX

Texas 21 at Iowa State 23

ISU
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Brock Purdy pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Home team on offense+3.5Pregame prior+9.6Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:17: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 14 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +12.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:46: Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 75 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +11.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:50: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 22 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +16.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:37: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 7 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +30.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Connor Assalley 36 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +60.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TEX made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:44TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:36ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:06TEX 4th & 5 at ISU 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ISU 4th & 3 at TEX 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−0.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:11TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:02TEX 4th & 2 at ISU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    28.6%−0.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:04ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 31, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:06TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 44, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:47ISU 4th & 9 at TEX 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−5.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:46TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:09ISU 4th & 12 at TEX 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:02TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:39ISU 4th & 4 at TEX 31, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    85.3%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    84.3%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:35TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:37ISU 4th & 18 at TEX 38, up 13
    Close callPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    87.1%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:50ISU 4th & 13 at ISU 47, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−3.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:37TEX 4th & 7 at ISU 7, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−14.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:37ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 45, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:15TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−11.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:00ISU 4th & 9 at TEX 19, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−43.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−54.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:44ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:17TEX Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:46ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:50TEX Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:37TEX Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−2.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 6 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-3
62.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
62.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
62.9%
Chris Naggar punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:0163% → 65%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
62.9%
Breece Hall run for 7 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+7
63.0%
Breece Hall run for 7 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
63.0%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+7
63.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 7 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
63.0%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+10
63.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 10 yds to the Texas 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+20
63.0%
Breece Hall run for 20 yds to the Texas 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
64.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-2
63.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-1
63.9%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Lawrence White for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 39Similar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 6
OWN 39
-5
64.2%
TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
64.3%
Chris Naggar punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
64.9%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+4
64.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 4 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
64.7%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
Q1 8:36
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+5
64.4%
Joe Rivera punt for 44 yds , Brandon Jones returns for 5 yds to the Texas 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
65.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 27Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+5
65.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+18
65.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
50
+3
64.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
64.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
64.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
65.1%
Chris Naggar punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:4166% → 67%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
66.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 12 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
66.4%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
66.7%
Brock Purdy run for 10 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
67.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 6 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+13
67.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 13 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
67.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Landen Akers for 7 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+2
67.4%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-2
68.0%
Brock Purdy sacked by Caden Sterns for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
67.2%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
66.5%
Roschon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
66.3%
Roschon Johnson run for no gain to the Texas 36Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
66.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Roschon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
67.6%
Chris Naggar punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8INT
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
67.8%
Breece Hall run for 11 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
68.0%
Brock Purdy pass intercepted D'Shawn Jamison return for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
65.7%
Roschon Johnson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+5
64.7%
Roschon Johnson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
64.7%
Roschon Johnson run for 4 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+3
64.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+1
65.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the IowSt 21Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 2
OPP 21
-1
66.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
68.9%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 20Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+8
68.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 8 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+3
68.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 3 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
68.0%
Joe Rivera punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Brandon Jones at the Texas 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
68.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 4 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
67.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
67.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Texas 44Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
68.6%
Chris Naggar punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 4:4171% → 74%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
70.5%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+9
70.7%
Breece Hall run for 9 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
70.8%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 31Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
70.7%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+10
70.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 10 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
72.1%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+10
72.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 10 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
72.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 10 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
72.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 5 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+2
72.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 2 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+7
72.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 7 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
73.7%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
73.7%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the Texas 18Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
72.4%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to La'Michael Pettway, broken up by Kobe BoyceSimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
74.3%
Connor Assalley 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:3026% → 42%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
73.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 17 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+33
72.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 33 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
69.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+11
69.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 11 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
57.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 14 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
64.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
75.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 75 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Malcolm EppsSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q3 14:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
75.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q3 14:46
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
76.3%
Chris Naggar punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:1776% → 83%
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
76.3%
Breece Hall run for 13 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
77.4%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 7
50
+21
77.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 21 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
77.7%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 12
OPP 31
0
77.6%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Breece HallSimilar
Q3 14:26
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
76.4%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr.Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+48
82.5%
Brayden Narveson 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
81.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+7
81.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Al'Vonte Woodard for 7 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 1
OWN 28
-4
81.2%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Will McDonald for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 24Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
82.1%
Chris Naggar punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:1986% → 86%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
85.7%
Breece Hall run for 8 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-5
87.0%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 49Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+12
86.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 12 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
86.9%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
86.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Dylan Soehner for 6 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
86.7%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Tarique MiltonSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
85.8%
Blake Clark pass incomplete to Chase AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0015% → 13%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
85.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin Duvernay, broken up by Braxton LewisSimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-5
86.2%
TEXAS Penalty, false start (Derek Kerstetter) to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+4
86.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
86.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
86.7%
Chris Naggar punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
87.9%
Johnnie Lang run for 5 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+16
88.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 16 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
88.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for no gain to the IowSt 49Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+21
88.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 21 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
88.6%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-10
88.5%
Lang, Johnnie rush for 5 yards to the UT25 (Malcolm Roach;D'Shawn Jamison), PENALTY ISU holding (Olson, Collin) 10 yards to the UT40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+2
88.2%
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 18
OPP 38
0
87.8%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr., broken up by Brandon JonesSimilar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 18
OPP 38
0
87.1%
Joe Rivera punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 2:5012% → 28%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
88.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 13 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
87.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 5 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
87.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Al'Vonte WoodardSimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+13
87.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 13 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
86.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 5 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
86.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to John Burt, broken up by Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+10
87.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete (Vance, O'Rien), PENALTY ISU holding (Hummel, Jake) 10 yards to the ISU34, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
85.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 12 yds to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
85.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
88.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+22
72.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 22 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.7%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
79.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 9 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
81.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
50
-3
82.1%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 13
OWN 47
0
81.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 13
OWN 47
0
79.6%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie Kolar, broken up by Malcolm RoachSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
78.4%
Joe Rivera punt for 42 yds, downed at the Texas 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24TD
17 plays · 89 yds · 6:4323% → 59%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
77.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 10 yds to the Texas 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
76.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 13 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
75.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 9 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 1
OWN 43
0
73.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Texas 43Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+7
73.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
50
0
72.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Malcolm Epps, broken up by Greg EisworthSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
50
+5
73.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 5 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+7
72.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 7 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
72.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 6 yards to the ISU32 (Vance, O'Rien), PENALTY UT holding (Samuel Cosmi) 10 yards to the ISU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 20
OPP 48
0
74.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 20
OPP 48
-15
75.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete (Allen, Chase), PENALTY UT pass interference (Brennan Eagles) 15 yards to the UT37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 35
OWN 37
+30
76.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 30 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+26
72.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 26 yds to the IowSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
70.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the IowSt 7Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
70.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Malcolm Epps, broken up by Greg EisworthSimilar
Q4 12:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
72.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q4 5:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
41.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 7 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
51.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 20 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
56.1%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
53.6%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie Kolar, broken up by Juwan MitchellSimilar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+5
51.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:37
4TH & 5
50
-5
53.5%
IOWA ST Penalty, delay of game (Brock Purdy) to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 5:37
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
48.8%
Joe Rivera punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brandon Jones at the Texas 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4659% → 59%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
41.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Texas 15Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
41.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Texas 15Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
39.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin Duvernay, broken up by Jamahl JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
41.4%
Chris Naggar punt for 67 yds, downed at the IowSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 27FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 3:0047% → 94%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
46.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 15 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
47.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 22 yds to the IOWAST 45 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
54.0%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Kolar, Charlie, PENALTY UT pass interference (Caden Sterns) 15 yards to the UT30, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
56.5%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+4
60.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 4 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
57.7%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to La'Michael Pettway, broken up by Jalen GreenSimilar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+5
54.2%
TEXAS Penalty, offside defense (Joseph Ossai) to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
60.9%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the Texas 19Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+2
60.9%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 7
OPP 17
-2
57.7%
Brock Purdy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 19Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
93.6%
Connor Assalley 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Connor Assalley 36 yd FG GOOD
+60.9
TD · Q4 5:37
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 7 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)
-30.9
TD · Q4 14:50
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 22 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)
-16.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com