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ISU

Iowa State 38 at West Virginia 14

WVU
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.7WVU 17.8%Brayden Narveson 45 yd FG GOODAWAY 24 - HOME 14 · Q4 12:20
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:20 · Brayden Narveson 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Pregame prior−5.8Home team on offense−20.7Score differential−8.5Garbage-time factor−8.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:55: Breece Hall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +5.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:32: Brock Purdy run for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +7.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:28: Jack Allison pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 9 yds for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +13.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:39: Breece Hall run for 12 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +12.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:54: Brock Purdy pass complete to Joseph Scates for 18 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +6.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 11:55ISU 4th & 13 at ISU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:52WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:22ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:47WVU 4th & 2 at WVU 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:10ISU 4th & 3 at WVU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    62.2%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:42ISU 4th & 2 at WVU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    64.0%−0.8
    86% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:46WVU 4th & 15 at WVU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:57WVU 4th & 5 at WVU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:09ISU 4th & 4 at WVU 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:47WVU 4th & 3 at WVU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:20ISU 4th & 3 at WVU 28, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.5%−1.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−7.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:49WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 30, down 10
    Close callPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:35ISU 4th & 1 at WVU 17, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.6
    80% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 4:29WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:32ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:28WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:39ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:54ISU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:42ISU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5276% → 74%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
24.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 10 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
24.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 7 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+3
24.6%
Johnnie Lang run for 3 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
24.9%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the IowSt 46Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-4
25.3%
Brock Purdy sacked by Quondarius Qualls for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 42Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 13
OWN 42
0
25.5%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
25.8%
Joe Rivera punt for 54 yds, downed at the WVirg 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:4326% → 27%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
25.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 9 yds to the WVirg 13Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 1
OWN 13
0
26.1%
Kennedy McKoy run for no gain to the WVirg 13Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+3
26.2%
Kennedy McKoy run for 3 yds to the WVirg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
26.5%
Austin Kendall run for 10 yds to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
26.8%
Austin Kendall run for 3 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
27.1%
Kennedy McKoy run for 5 yds to the WVirg 34Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 2
OWN 34
-8
27.6%
Austin Kendall sacked by Anthony Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the WVirg 26 Austin Kendall fumbled, recovered by WVirg Mike O'Laughlin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
27.2%
Josh Growden punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1873% → 72%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
27.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 1 yd to the IowSt 32Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+8
27.8%
Johnnie Lang run for 8 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-1
27.5%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 39Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
28.4%
Joe Rivera punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Alec Sinkfield at the WVirg 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2628% → 29%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
28.4%
Kennedy McKoy run for 2 yds to the WVirg 23Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-4
28.5%
Kennedy McKoy run for a loss of 4 yards to the WVirg 19Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+10
28.2%
Jack Allison pass complete to Sam James for 10 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
28.5%
Josh Growden punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5INT TD
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:1371% → 67%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
28.9%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Tarique MiltonSimilar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
29.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Kene NwangwuSimilar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-5
29.4%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 19Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+19
33.1%
Brock Purdy pass intercepted for a TD Tykee Smith return for 19 yds for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:2868% → 71%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
32.3%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
32.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 12 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
32.4%
Breece Hall run for 18 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
31.8%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Tarique MiltonSimilar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-10
32.0%
IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Trevor Downing) to the WVirg 45Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+17
33.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 17 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
32.6%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+10
33.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 10 yds to the WVirg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
32.6%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the WVirg 15Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+3
33.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 3 yds to the WVirg 12Similar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+11
34.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 11 yds to the WVirg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.7%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7FUMBLE
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:3432% → 34%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
32.0%
Jack Allison pass incomplete to Bryce WheatonSimilar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
31.9%
Leddie Brown run for 11 yds to the WVirg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
33.3%
Jack Allison pass complete to Sam James for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 2
50
+3
33.9%
Leddie Brown run for 3 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
34.2%
Leddie Brown run for 5 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+4
34.7%
Jack Allison pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 4 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+1
34.4%
Jack Allison run for 1 yd to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
35.0%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Bryce Wheaton) to the IowSt 42Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+8
34.3%
Jack Allison pass complete to Leddie Brown for 8 yds Leddie Brown fumbled, recovered by IowSt Braxton LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 5:2468% → 77%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
31.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Dylan Soehner for 21 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
30.6%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the WVirg 41Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-8
30.8%
Brock Purdy sacked by Reese Donahue for a loss of 8 yards to the WVirg 49Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+15
32.8%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Milton, Tarique, PENALTY WESTVIR personal foul 15 yards to the WESTVIR34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
30.3%
Breece Hall run for 14 yds to the WVirg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
30.3%
Hall, Breece rush for 8 yards to the WESTVIR12, PENALTY IOWAST holding (Akers, Landen) 10 yards to the WESTVIR30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 20
OPP 30
0
30.9%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 20
OPP 30
+11
31.5%
Breece Hall run for 11 yds to the WVirg 19Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+7
31.8%
Breece Hall run for 7 yds to the WVirg 12Similar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+2
31.6%
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds to the WVirg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
30.0%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 13Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+11
30.5%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Shaw Jr., Sean, PENALTY WESTVIR pass interference (Martin Jr., Kerry) 11 yards to the WESTVIR2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q2 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.4%
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9TD
16 plays · 76 yds · 5:3226% → 44%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
25.9%
Jack Allison sacked by Mike Rose for a loss of 5 yards to the WVirg 19Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+7
25.7%
Jack Allison pass complete to Sam James for 7 yds to the WVirg 26Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+27
25.1%
Jack Allison pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 27 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
28.7%
Leddie Brown run for 2 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+5
28.7%
Leddie Brown run for 5 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
28.7%
Leddie Brown run for 4 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
29.0%
Jack Allison pass complete to Ali Jennings for 11 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
29.8%
Leddie Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 29Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 14
OPP 29
0
28.6%
Jack Allison pass incomplete to Winston WrightSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+15
27.4%
Jack Allison pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 15 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
30.2%
Leddie Brown run for 3 yds to the IowSt 11Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+8
30.4%
Jack Allison pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 8 yds to the IowSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
30.5%
Leddie Brown run for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 9Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
43.7%
Jack Allison pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 9 yds for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
36.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:4441% → 39%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
40.8%
Kennedy McKoy run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 23Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-2
40.7%
Kennedy McKoy run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 21Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 13
OWN 21
+14
39.4%
Jack Allison pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 14 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
42.0%
Jack Allison run for 1 yd to the WVirg 36Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-1
42.3%
Jack Allison pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 35Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-5
40.5%
Jack Allison sacked by Zach Petersen for a loss of 5 yards to the WVirg 30Similar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
39.4%
Josh Growden punt for 38 yds, downed at the IowSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:0262% → 77%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
38.1%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
38.8%
Breece Hall run for 9 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
36.7%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
37.0%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+40
35.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 28 yds to the WESTVIR 24 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (12 Yards) to the WVirg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
22.8%
Breece Hall run for 12 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:0327% → 27%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
27.3%
Jack Allison pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 10 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
27.8%
Kennedy McKoy run for 3 yds to the WVirg 40Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
29.1%
Jack Allison pass complete to Sam James for 2 yds to the WVirg 42Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
28.4%
Jack Allison pass incomplete to Kennedy McKoySimilar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
26.6%
Josh Growden punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:2175% → 76%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
25.1%
Breece Hall run for 13 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
24.4%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
23.6%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+9
23.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 9 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
22.9%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+5
22.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 5 yds to the WVirg 49Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
22.7%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
23.9%
Joe Rivera punt for 43 yds, downed at the WVirg 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1326% → 25%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
26.3%
Jack Allison pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 4 yds to the WVirg 10Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+3
26.5%
Leddie Brown run for 3 yds to the WVirg 13Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 3
OWN 13
0
25.6%
Jack Allison pass incomplete to Mike O'LaughlinSimilar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
24.7%
Josh Growden punt for 62 yds, downed at the IowSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 5:4076% → 82%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
23.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 20 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
21.8%
Brock Purdy sacked by Reuben Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 38Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+5
23.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 5 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+12
23.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 12 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
21.2%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-1
21.2%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 44Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+9
20.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 9 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
18.5%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Dante Stills) to the WVirg 30Similar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 5
OPP 30
+3
17.9%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the WVirg 27Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 2
OPP 27
0
17.9%
Brock Purdy run for no gain to the WVirg 27Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-1
18.5%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 28Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+45
17.8%
Brayden Narveson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1117% → 15%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
17.1%
Sam James run for 3 yds to the WVirg 27Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+3
16.6%
Jack Allison pass complete to Sam James for 3 yds to the WVirg 30Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
15.9%
Jack Allison pass incomplete to Sam JamesSimilar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
14.8%
Josh Growden punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:3886% → 96%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+24
14.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 24 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
12.2%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
11.6%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the WVirg 32Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+7
11.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 7 yds to the WVirg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
11.3%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the WVirg 22Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+9
11.0%
Breece Hall run for 9 yds to the WVirg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
10.5%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WVirg 18Similar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+18
3.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Joseph Scates for 18 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:455% → 4%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.5%
Jack Allison pass complete to Winston Wright for no gain to the WVirg 25Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
4.1%
Jack Allison pass complete to Winston Wright for 1 yd to the WVirg 26Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+23
3.7%
Jack Allison pass intercepted Braxton Lewis return for 23 yds to the WVirg 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:4397% → 100%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
3.2%
Re-al Mitchell run for 2 yds to the WVirg 24Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+1
3.1%
Re-al Mitchell run for 1 yd to the WVirg 23Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+6
2.7%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the WVirg 17Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+4
2.1%
Re-al Mitchell run for 4 yds to the WVirg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
1.3%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the WVirg 12Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+11
1.3%
Re-al Mitchell run for 11 yds to the WVirg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.3%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:191% → 1%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.7%
Lorenzo Dorr run for 4 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
0.7%
Lorenzo Dorr run for 5 yds to the WVirg 34 Lorenzo Dorr fumbled, recovered by IowSt Jatairis GrantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:28
Jack Allison pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 9 yds for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK)
+13.2
TD · Q3 9:39
Breece Hall run for 12 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q2 6:32
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)
-7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com