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TCU

TCU 24 at Iowa State 49

ISU
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:20 · Brock Purdy pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginPregame prior
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Home team on offense+6.4Score differential+1.2Garbage-time factor+2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Blowout margin−0.5Pregame prior+3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:00: Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 25 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +8.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:01: Brock Purdy run for 10 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +6.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:44: Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 7 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +5.6 pts (now 9%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:01: Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 22 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +9.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:27: Brock Purdy run for 9 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +7.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:19TCU 4th & 11 at TCU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:27ISU 4th & 5 at TCU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:55TCU 4th & 8 at ISU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 48, up 4
    Close callPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:53TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:20ISU 4th & 2 at TCU 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    69.2%−1.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:04TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 41, down 11
    Close callPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:59TCU 4th & 1 at ISU 41, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%−3.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:10TCU 4th & 14 at ISU 40, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%
    34% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:53ISU 4th & 8 at TCU 40, up 18
    Close callPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    82.5%−0.8
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:24TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 6, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:29ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 25, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:19TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 26, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:25ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:00ISU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:01ISU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:44TCU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:02ISU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:35TCU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:01TCU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.8%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:27ISU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:26ISU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
54.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+10
54.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for no gain to the TCU 23 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
54.6%
Max Duggan run for 11 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
54.6%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the TCU 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+4
54.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-1
54.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
54.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 3:0555% → 59%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
55.0%
Johnnie Lang run for 3 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+26
55.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 26 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
55.4%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the IowSt 48Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
55.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 3 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+9
55.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 9 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
55.5%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Milton, Tarique, PENALTY ISU ineligible downfield on pass (Kolar, Charlie) 5 yards to the TCU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+44
55.3%
Brock Purdy run for 44 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
57.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Darius Anderson for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
57.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete, broken up by Tucker RobertsonSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 11
OWN 28
0
58.0%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
58.2%
Jordy Sandy punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 37 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+31
58.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 31 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
58.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Re-al Mitchell for 3 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+2
58.9%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
58.7%
Purdy, Brock pass complete to Jones, Deshaunte for 17 yards to the TCU11, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ISU illegal touching (Jones, Deshaunte) 0 yards to the TCU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+1
58.3%
Brock Purdy run for 1 yd to the TCU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 5:0041% → 43%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
59.1%
Max Duggan run for 9 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 1
OWN 36
0
58.4%
Jalen Reagor run for no gain to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+1
58.6%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
58.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 11 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
58.3%
Darius Anderson run for 7 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+23
58.0%
Darius Anderson run for 23 yds to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
57.5%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-4
57.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 23Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+3
58.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 3 yds to the IowSt 20Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
57.1%
Jonathan Song 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.6%
Brock Purdy run for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
57.9%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
57.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Darren Wilson for 8 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
58.5%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
58.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 4 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
58.4%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Deshaunte Jones, broken up by Trevon MoehrigSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
57.7%
Joe Rivera punt for 39 yds, downed at the TCU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7FUMBLE TD
1 play · -12 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
64.9%
Max Duggan sacked by O'Rien Vance for a loss of 8 yards Max Duggan fumbled, recovered by IowSt Eyioma Uwazurike , return for 0 yards , return for 1 yd, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
64.7%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
65.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jalen Reagor, broken up by Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
65.8%
Jordy Sandy punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
67.6%
Jirehl Brock run for 2 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+16
67.5%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Jones, Deshaunte, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Scott, Vernon) 16 yards to the ISU49, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
68.7%
Jirehl Brock run for no gain to the IowSt 49Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+10
68.6%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Pettway, La'Michael, PENALTY TCU holding (Lewis, Julius) 10 yards to the TCU41, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
68.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 4 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+2
68.8%
Jirehl Brock run for 2 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+2
68.3%
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 2
OPP 33
0
67.4%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
67.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Sewo OloniluaSimilar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
68.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Darius AndersonSimilar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+8
69.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Darius Anderson for 8 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
68.4%
Jordy Sandy punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:2171% → 82%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
70.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 4 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-1
70.9%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+8
69.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 8 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
73.4%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Darren WilsonSimilar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
73.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Joseph Scates for 7 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+15
72.9%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Milton, Tarique, PENALTY TCU personal foul (Blacklock, Ross) 15 yards to the TCU25, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
81.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 25 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12MISSED FG
13 plays · 10 yds · 3:4922% → 18%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
50
+7
77.9%
Alex Delton run for 7 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-2
77.6%
Alex Delton pass complete to Jalen Reagor for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+4
78.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+5
78.2%
Alex Delton run for 5 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
77.7%
Alex Delton pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 1 yd to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-5
77.3%
TCU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 40Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 14
OPP 40
0
79.0%
Alex Delton pass complete to Derius Davis for no gain to the IowSt 40Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 14
OPP 40
0
82.0%
Alex Delton pass incomplete, broken up by Greg EisworthSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 14
OPP 40
+57
82.3%
Griffin Kell 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
85.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
83.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 17 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
83.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 4 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-5
83.1%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Trevor Downing) to the TCU 43Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+8
83.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Kene Nwangwu for 8 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-5
82.5%
Brock Purdy sacked by Ochaun Mathis for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
81.9%
Joe Rivera punt for 36 yds, downed at the TCU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
85.4%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 7
OWN 7
-4
85.6%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 3Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 11
OWN 3
+3
85.8%
Alex Delton pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 3 yds to the TCU 6Similar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 8
OWN 6
0
85.8%
Jordy Sandy punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the TCU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 41 yds · 1:1791% → 97%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
90.6%
Johnnie Lang run for 23 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
90.5%
Brock Purdy run for 8 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+10
97.3%
Brock Purdy run for 10 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 5:114% → 9%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
95.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to John Stephens Jr.Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
96.0%
Sewo Olonilua run for 8 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+8
95.8%
Max Duggan run for 8 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
95.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for no gain to the TCU 38Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
95.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd to the TCU 39 TCU Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+42
95.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 42 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
95.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 4 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+6
95.2%
Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the IowSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
95.2%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 8Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
97.1%
Duggan, Max rush for 8 yards to the ISU0, clock 04:36, PENALTY TCU holding (Anderson, Darius) 10 yards to the ISU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+11
96.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Darius Anderson for 11 yds to the IowSt 7Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
91.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 7 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:4293% → 99%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
93.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 30 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
93.7%
Brock Purdy run for 20 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
93.8%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+23
93.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 23 yds to the TCU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.9%
Johnnie Lang run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 3:192% → 6%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
98.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Trevon MoehrigSimilar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+4
98.4%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+12
98.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Artayvious Lynn for 12 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
98.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 8 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+19
98.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Darius Anderson for 4 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, roughing passer (Jamahl Johnson) to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+33
98.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 33 yds to the IowSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
98.3%
Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the IowSt 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+3
98.3%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
98.4%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the IowSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
93.9%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
96.4%
Re-al Mitchell run for 9 yds to the IowSt 20Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+4
96.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 4 yds to the IowSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
96.5%
Brock Purdy run for 1 yd to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
96.1%
Joe Rivera punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:224% → 14%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
96.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 19 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
95.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 44Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+34
96.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 34 yds to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
86.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 22 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3490% → 98%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.1%
Johnnie Lang run for 9 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
90.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 8 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
90.9%
TCU Penalty, offside defense (Corey Bethley) to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 5
OWN 47
+3
91.0%
Johnnie Lang run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 2
50
+41
91.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Landen Akers for 32 yds to the IOWAST 18 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, face mask (9 yards) (Trevon Moehrig) to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.1%
Brock Purdy run for 9 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5298% → 100%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
98.1%
Brock Purdy run for 3 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ross Blacklock) to the TCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
98.1%
Jirehl Brock run for 3 yds to the TCU 3 Jirehl Brock fumbled, forced by Trevon Moehrig, recovered by IowSt Collin OlsonSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 3
OWN 0
0
97.5%
PENALTY ISU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY TCU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.1%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.3%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Artayvious Lynn, broken up by Zach PetersenSimilar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.3%
Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 4
OWN 29
-3
99.2%
Max Duggan sacked by Will McDonald for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 26Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.7%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+10
99.8%
Johnnie Lang run for 10 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.8%
Johnnie Lang run for 4 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:01
Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 22 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
-9.9
TD · Q2 4:00
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 25 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)
+8.9
TD · Q4 6:27
Brock Purdy run for 9 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com