Try the model
TEX

Texas 10 at Baylor 24

BAY
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · McLane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+0.9BAY 99.2%John Mayers 24 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 24 · Q4 10:57
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:57 · John Mayers 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Home team on offense+32.1Score differential+21.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+13.3Garbage-time factor+11.6Pregame prior+1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+7.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:51: John Lovett run for 28 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +5.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:05: Timeout TEXAS, clock 00:05 — TEX win probability +5.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Cameron Dicker 48 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +4.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 7:36: Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +13.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:20: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 12 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +12.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 8TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:30TEX 4th & 10 at BAY 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    37.9%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:24BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:19TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:51TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:36BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:49TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:13BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:16TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:33BAY 4th & 10 at TEX 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 46, down 4
    Close callPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:36TEX 4th & 3 at BAY 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%−1.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:39BAY 4th & 5 at TEX 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−1.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:57BAY 4th & 4 at TEX 6, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−2.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:03BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 18, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:36TEX 4th & 17 at BAY 30, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:22BAY 4th & 1 at TEX 45, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TEX made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 14:51BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:36BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:20BAY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:01TEX Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 57 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
57.4%
John Lovett run for 11 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+44
57.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 44 yds Chris Platt fumbled, forced by D'Shawn Jamison, recovered by Texas Chris BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2PUNT
14 plays · 38 yds · 1:0143% → 42%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
57.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 3 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+1
57.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the Texas 22Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+5
57.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Texas 27Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+8
57.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 8 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
57.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
57.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 10 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
57.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 7 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
57.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
57.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Malcolm EppsSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
57.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jake Smith, broken up by Chidi OgbonnayaSimilar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+5
57.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 5
OPP 39
-5
57.5%
TEXAS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
57.6%
Chris Naggar punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Grayland Arnold at the Bayl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
57.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 11 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
57.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+6
57.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jared Atkinson for 6 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+4
57.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
58.0%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+3
57.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 3 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+7
57.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 7 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
58.0%
Issac Power punt for 52 yds, downed at the Texas 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
58.2%
Keaontay Ingram rush for 4 yards to the UT10 (Miller,Chris), PENALTY BU offside defense (Ogbonnaya,Chidi) 5 yards to the UT11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 5
OWN 11
+15
57.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 15 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
57.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
57.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 21Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+10
58.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 10 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
58.3%
Chris Naggar punt for 19 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:5160% → 66%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
50
0
59.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 10
50
+9
59.4%
Charlie Brewer run for 9 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+1
59.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
59.7%
Trestan Ebner run for 6 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+3
60.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
59.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
65.6%
John Lovett run for 28 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
63.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+16
64.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 16 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
62.9%
TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 37Similar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+8
63.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 8 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
62.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Texas 45Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-2
63.1%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by James Lockhart and Jordan Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
64.2%
Chris Naggar punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Grayland Arnold at the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
65.7%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 15Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
65.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Jalen GreenSimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
65.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to JaMycal Hasty, broken up by DeMarvion OvershownSimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 9
OWN 15
0
64.4%
Issac Power punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
64.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
65.2%
Roschon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-1
64.9%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Ross Matiscik for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 45Similar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
66.2%
Chris Naggar punt for 34 yds, downed at the Bayl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
67.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to JaMycal HastySimilar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+11
67.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 11 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
67.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 6 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+10
69.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 10 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
69.2%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Platt,Chris for 10 yards to the UT42 (Ayodele Adeoye), PENALTY BU holding (Sneed,R.J.) 10 yards to the BU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+4
68.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 4 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 16
OWN 42
-7
68.1%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Ayodele Adeoye for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 23
OWN 35
+13
66.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 13 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
67.0%
Issac Power punt for 48 yds, downed at the Texas 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:0431% → 30%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+15
69.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 15 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
68.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Texas 19Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+13
68.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 13 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
68.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-8
67.7%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 28Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+6
69.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 6 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
70.4%
Chris Naggar punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Grayland Arnold at the Bayl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:3769% → 69%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
69.2%
Charlie Brewer run for 12 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
70.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 15 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
71.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
71.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to JaMycal HastySimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
70.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
68.7%
Issac Power punt for 45 yds, downed at the Texas 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12FG
4 plays · 68 yds · 0:1828% → 38%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+68
71.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 68 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+48
61.7%
Cameron Dicker 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
62.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for 15 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
61.0%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by James Lynch for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+5
63.0%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+6
62.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 6 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
62.3%
Chris Naggar punt for 41 yds, downed at the Bayl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 4:3363% → 81%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
63.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
63.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+20
61.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 20 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
64.3%
Brewer,Charlie sacked for loss of 1 yard to the BU36 (Ta'Quon Graham), PENALTY UT face mask (Ta'Quon Graham) 15 yards to the UT48, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
66.4%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+26
66.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 26 yds Denzel Mims fumbled, forced by DeMarvion Overshown, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
67.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 13 yds to the Texas 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
67.3%
TEXAS Penalty, offside defense (Ta'Quon Graham) to the Texas 4Similar
Q3 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
67.3%
Josh Fleeks run for 3 yds to the Texas 1Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.3%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Texas 1Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.7%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
78.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 29 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
76.4%
Roschon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
76.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 4 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
76.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan Eagles, broken up by Jameson HoustonSimilar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
78.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:1982% → 95%
Q3 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
82.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 11 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
82.7%
John Lovett run for no gain to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
82.9%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+3
82.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to John Lovett for 3 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+1
81.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the Texas 44Similar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 5
OPP 44
+16
80.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 16 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
82.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
82.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+15
82.1%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Atkinson,Jared, PENALTY UT pass interference (Jalen Green) 15 yards to the UT12, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
94.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 12 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17INT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:207% → 6%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
92.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 10 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
92.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
92.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Malcolm EppsSimilar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+6
93.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 6 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
93.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Roschon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+26
93.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass intercepted Grayland Arnold return for 26 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:4396% → 99%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
95.6%
John Lovett run for 9 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
95.8%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
95.8%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Thornton,Tyquan (D'Shawn Jamison), PENALTY UT pass interference (D'Shawn Jamison) 15 yards to the UT39, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
96.4%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the Texas 38Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+26
96.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 26 yds to the Texas 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
96.4%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Texas 11Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+5
96.4%
Charlie Brewer run for 5 yds to the Texas 6Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
98.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
99.2%
John Mayers 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 13 yds · 0:002% → 1%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
98.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 2 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
98.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 6 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
98.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 6 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+18
98.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 18 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
98.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 6 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
98.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 4
OPP 32
-15
98.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Malcolm Epps for loss of 1 yard to the BU33 (Barnes,Kalon), PENALTY UT personal foul (Zac Shackelford) 15 yards to the BU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 19
OPP 47
-15
98.6%
TEXAS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Parker Braun) to the Texas 38Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 34
OWN 38
0
98.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Malcolm Roach, broken up by James LynchSimilar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 34
OWN 38
0
98.6%
Chris Naggar punt for 51 yds, downed at the Bayl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
99.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Sam Tecklenburg) to the Bayl 6Similar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+4
99.6%
Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+1
99.5%
Gerry Bohanon run for 1 yd to the Bayl 11Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+7
99.7%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Chris Platt for 7 yds to the Bayl 18 BAYLOR Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
99.6%
Issac Power punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brandon Jones at the Texas 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 28 yds · 2:011% → 1%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
99.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 6 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+5
99.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Roschon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
99.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Al'Vonte Woodard for 14 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
98.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 10 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
98.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Al'Vonte Woodard, broken up by Jameson HoustonSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-7
99.0%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by James Lynch for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 17
OPP 30
0
99.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 17
OPP 30
0
99.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan Eagles, broken up by Grayland ArnoldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
99.8%
TEXAS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Derek Kerstetter) to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
99.8%
Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (JaMycal Hasty) to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 16
OWN 40
+3
99.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+4
99.8%
Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+8
99.8%
Gerry Bohanon run for 8 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
99.8%
Gerry Bohanon run for no gain to the Texas 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 0:421% → 3%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
99.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 12 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
99.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 11 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
99.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 11 yds to the Bayl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+17
99.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 17 yds to the Bayl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.6%
Daniel Young run for 4 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:36
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD (John Mayers KICK)
+13.4
TD · Q3 1:20
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 12 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)
+12.8
TD · Q2 14:51
John Lovett run for 28 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com