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BAY

Baylor 29 at TCU 23

TCU
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-37.7TCU 50.2%John Mayers 51 yd FG GOODAWAY 9 - HOME 9 · Q4 0:36
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:36 · John Mayers 51 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseTime remainingDefense timeoutsOffense timeoutsGarbage-time factorPregame prior
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 166Home team on offense−1.9Time remaining−1.5Defense timeouts+0.3Offense timeouts−0.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Pregame prior+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 0:36: John Mayers 51 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +37.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
  2. TD · OT 0:00: Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +16.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Max Duggan pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 24 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +32.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 20 yds for a TD Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 20 yds for a TD Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 20 yds for a TD — BAY win probability +35.6 pts (now 50%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — BAY win probability +30.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:34TCU 4th & 4 at BAY 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.0%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:34BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:12TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:46BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TCU 4th & 19 at BAY 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:49BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:36BAY 4th & 3 at TCU 15, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%−0.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−6.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:29TCU 4th & 12 at BAY 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−2.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:58BAY 4th & 6 at TCU 19, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−9.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:53TCU 4th & 12 at TCU 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−2.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:26BAY 4th & 3 at midfield, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:34BAY 4th & 7 at TCU 7, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−13.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:34TCU 4th & 11 at TCU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−4.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:44BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 28, down 3
    Close callPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:30TCU 4th & 21 at BAY 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−6.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:01BAY 4th & 30 at BAY 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−5.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:07TCU 4th & 4 at BAY 39, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.0 ptsPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    68.8%−4.9
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%−5.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:36BAY 4th & 19 at TCU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−12.5
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−14.4
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:2646% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
45.9%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
45.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 9 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+35
45.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for 35 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
45.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 6 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
45.9%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
45.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Pro WellsSimilar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+47
46.9%
Griffin Kell 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
46.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 20Similar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
46.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-9
46.8%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Ochaun Mathis for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 14Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+15
47.0%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Platt,Chris, PENALTY TCU personal foul (Mathis, Ochaun) 15 yards to the BU29, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
46.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
46.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
46.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
47.0%
John Mayers punt for 23 yds, downed at the TCU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
48.0%
Anderson, D. rush for 16 yards to the BU37, out-of-bounds (Lynch,Blake), PENALTY TCU H0 (McKinney, A.) 10 yards to the TCU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 20
OWN 37
-2
47.6%
Jalen Reagor run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 22
OWN 35
+6
47.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 6 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 16
OWN 41
+8
47.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 8 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
47.5%
Jordy Sandy punt for 38 yds, downed at the Bayl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0051% → 52%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
48.6%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+7
48.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 7 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+27
48.5%
Charlie Brewer pass intercepted La'Kendrick Van Zandt return for 12 yds to the TCU 35 TCU Penalty, personal foul (Ochaun Mathis) to the TCU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5INT
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
49.3%
Darius Anderson run for no gain to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+19
49.0%
Max Duggan run for 4 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Williams) to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
49.6%
Darius Anderson run for 9 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
49.8%
Darius Anderson run for no gain to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+6
49.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 6 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
49.8%
Max Duggan pass intercepted Grayland Arnold return for no gain to the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
50.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 1 yd to the Bayl 15Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
50.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+2
50.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 2 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
51.0%
Issac Power punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:1251% → 50%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
50.6%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
50.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 4 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+7
50.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Carter Ware for 7 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
51.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 7 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+4
52.1%
Max Duggan run for 4 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
52.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
52.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 37
-8
51.3%
Max Duggan sacked by Blake Lynch and Bravvion Roy for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 19
OPP 45
0
49.7%
Jordy Sandy punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8MISSED FG
16 plays · 80 yds · 7:1348% → 46%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+11
51.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 11 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
51.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
51.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+4
52.2%
Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the Bayl 24 BAYLOR Penalty, face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 2
OWN 24
+16
52.7%
John Lovett run for 16 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
50.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 11 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
49.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 4 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+13
49.7%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Terrell Cooper for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 47 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Terrell Cooper) to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
49.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-2
48.9%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+8
49.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 8 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
48.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for 5 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
48.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for no gain to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+2
52.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 2 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
53.7%
John Mayers 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:0755% → 63%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
55.4%
TCU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 15Similar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+5
55.3%
Taye Barber run for 5 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
55.3%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+8
54.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 8 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
55.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+14
55.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 14 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
57.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+29
58.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 29 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
58.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 19Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 11
OPP 19
-1
58.7%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 12
OPP 20
0
57.3%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+37
63.4%
Jonathan Song 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:2567% → 71%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
67.4%
Max Duggan run for 7 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
66.3%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Sewo OloniluaSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+3
65.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
66.4%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+31
70.5%
Jonathan Song 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 5:0234% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
66.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 12 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
65.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to John Lovett for 3 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
64.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 5 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
64.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
63.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Trevon MoehrigSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+12
64.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 12 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
63.7%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Thornton,Tyquan, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Stewart, K.) 15 yards to the TCU23, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
62.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Xavier Newman) to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+3
63.2%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+5
62.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+1
63.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 1 yd to the TCU 19Similar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
61.6%
John Mayers 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
65.3%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+14
65.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 14 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
65.7%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
65.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Darius AndersonSimilar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+10
64.3%
Max Duggan run for 10 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
66.0%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
65.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Darius Anderson for no gain to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
64.3%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q3 9:53
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
63.1%
Jordy Sandy punt for 54 yds, downed at the Bayl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0035% → 37%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
64.6%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+5
64.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 5 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+6
64.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
63.9%
John Lovett run for 9 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+3
61.3%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
62.5%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+9
63.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 3
50
0
61.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to JaMycal HastySimilar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 3
50
0
62.9%
Issac Power punt for 41 yds, downed at the TCU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0071% → 72%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
71.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 7 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+1
71.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd to the TCU 17Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+2
70.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+20
72.0%
Max Duggan pass intercepted Terrel Bernard return for 20 yds to the TCU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5140% → 39%
Q3 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
59.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
59.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
62.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q4 14:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
61.3%
John Mayers 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0067% → 63%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
66.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Darius Anderson for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
66.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jalen Reagor, broken up by James LynchSimilar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
64.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Pro Wells TCU Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:34
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
63.4%
Jordy Sandy punt for 51 yds , Grayland Arnold returns for no gain to the Bayl 21 Grayland Arnold fumbled, recovered by Bayl Grayland ArnoldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
63.9%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+2
64.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 2 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 9
OWN 22
-5
65.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Casey Phillips) to the Bayl 17Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 14
OWN 17
+11
66.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 11 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
66.2%
Issac Power punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
68.4%
Max Duggan run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
50
+1
71.5%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
71.4%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+12
69.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 12 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
71.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
72.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for no gain to the Bayl 35Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 8
OPP 35
-8
71.3%
Max Duggan sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 16
OPP 43
-5
65.5%
TCU Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 48Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 21
OPP 48
0
65.5%
Jordy Sandy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Grayland Arnold at the Bayl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0036% → 31%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
64.2%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Ochaun Mathis and Corey Bethley for a loss of 10 yards to the Bayl 15Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
65.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton, broken up by Trevon MoehrigSimilar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 20
OWN 15
-5
66.8%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Fleeks,Josh for 28 yards to the BU43, out-of-bounds (Wilson, Ben), PENALTY BU ineligible downfield on pass (Phillips,Casey) 5 yards to the BU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 25
OWN 10
-5
66.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Casey Phillips) to the Bayl 5Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 30
OWN 5
0
67.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 30
OWN 5
0
68.6%
Issac Power punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the Bayl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0076% → 73%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
76.4%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
76.4%
Darius Anderson run for no gain to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
75.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q4 5:07
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
73.1%
Jordy Sandy punt for 27 yds, downed at the Bayl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22FG
16 plays · 54 yds · 2:4731% → 50%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+26
68.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 26 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
65.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
65.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+9
66.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jared Atkinson for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
50
+9
61.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 9 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+1
60.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
61.0%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Thornton,Tyquan, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Gladney, Jeff) 15 yards to the TCU25, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
58.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-5
58.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Sam Tecklenburg) to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 12
OPP 27
-2
68.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 29 BAYLOR Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 14
OPP 29
-5
75.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Casey Phillips) to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 19
OPP 34
0
80.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Josh FleeksSimilar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 19
OPP 34
+51
50.2%
John Mayers 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24TD
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 76%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
40.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the TCU 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
40.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton, broken up by Ar'Darius WashingtonSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+12
43.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 12 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
40.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, personal foul (R.J. Sneed) to the TCU 25Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
41.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the TCU 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+11
43.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 11 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
40.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 7 yds to the TCU 3Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
23.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 58%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
28.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Pro WellsSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
24.0%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-4
25.6%
Max Duggan sacked by Blake Lynch for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 24Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+24
57.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 24 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 75%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
64.7%
Darius Anderson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+9
64.7%
Darius Anderson run for 9 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
64.7%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the Bayl 8Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
64.7%
Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the Bayl 2Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.0%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds for a TD Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 50%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
80.4%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the TCU 20Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
79.3%
John Lovett run for no gain to the TCU 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
86.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton, broken up by Ar'Darius WashingtonSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+20
50.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 20 yds for a TD Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 20 yds for a TD Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 20 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 90%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
40.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 21 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
9.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 29Uncategorized
11 plays · 12 yds · 0:0032% → 21%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
31.5%
Jalen Reagor run for 6 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-1
31.5%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+17
28.8%
Max Duggan run for 17 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
32.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for no gain to the Bayl 3Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
31.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for no gain to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, face mask (2 yards) (Bravvion Roy) to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
32.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 4Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
31.5%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
28.8%
Anderson, D. rush for 2 yards to the BU2 (Black,Henry), PENALTY TCU holding (Bolisomi, David) 10 yards to the BU14, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
21.3%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the Bayl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:36
John Mayers 51 yd FG GOOD
-37.7
TD · OT 0:00
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 20 yds for a TD Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 20 yds for a TD Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 20 yds for a TD
-35.6
TD · OT 0:00
Max Duggan pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 24 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK)
+32.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com