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BAY

Baylor 45 at Oklahoma State 27

OKST
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:31 · Tom Hutton punt for 40 yds, fair catch by R.J. Sneed at the Bayl 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Home team on offense+4.8Pregame prior+3.9Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:42: JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +19.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 2:36: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 64 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +24.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:55: LD Brown run for 68 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +26.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:04: Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +30.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:00: Terrel Bernard 20 Yd Fumble Return (John Mayers Kick) — BAY win probability +25.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:15OKST 4th & 6 at OKST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:14OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 37, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:10BAY 4th & 14 at BAY 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:42OKST 4th & 11 at OKST 40, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:32BAY 4th & 11 at OKST 11, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−5.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:00BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:20OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 43, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.4%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:31OKST 4th & 8 at BAY 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:15OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 33, down 4
    Close callPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:48BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 34, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%−2.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:00OKST 4th & 6 at BAY 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−2.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:25OKST 4th & 4 at BAY 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−1.9
    62% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−4.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:05BAY 4th & 3 at OKST 21, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:06BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:37OKST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:15OKST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:35OKST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:42BAY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:36BAY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:55OKST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:04BAY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:00BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:13BAY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2062% → 62%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
61.8%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Jelani Woods) to the OKSt 10Similar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+5
61.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 5 yds to the OKSt 15Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+9
61.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jelani Woods for 9 yds to the OKSt 24Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
61.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
61.6%
Tom Hutton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by R.J. Sneed at the Bayl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:5438% → 40%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
61.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 17 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
61.5%
John Lovett run for 20 yds to the OKSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
60.3%
John Lovett 25 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 5:1361% → 62%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
60.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 11 yds to the OKSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
60.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 6 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+5
60.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jelani Woods for 5 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
60.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
60.3%
LD Brown run for 3 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+8
60.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to LD Brown for 8 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
60.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+2
60.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for 2 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+9
59.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jordan McCray for 9 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
60.1%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+5
59.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (JT Woods) to the Bayl 23Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+3
59.9%
LD Brown run for 3 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
59.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 15 yds to the Bayl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
62.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jordan McCray for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:5439% → 40%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
61.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 16 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
60.3%
Chris Platt run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+18
60.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 18 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
59.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 19 yds to the OKSt 24 JaMycal Hasty fumbled, forced by Malcolm Rodriguez, recovered by OKSt Malcolm RodriguezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:4460% → 59%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
60.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for 1 yd to the OKSt 25Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 9
OWN 25
-5
60.2%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Logan Carter) to the OKSt 20Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 14
OWN 20
+6
60.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 6 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+9
59.5%
Spencer Sanders run for 9 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
60.4%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
60.6%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
60.0%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
59.4%
Tom Hutton punt for 50 yds, downed at the Bayl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:4840% → 40%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
59.7%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Cameron Murray for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 12Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+3
59.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to John Lovett for 3 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+17
59.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 17 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
58.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+8
58.9%
Josh Fleeks run for 8 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 2
OWN 40
-10
57.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Blake Bedier) to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 12
OWN 30
-2
59.8%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Jayden Jernigan for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 14
OWN 28
0
60.5%
Issac Power punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2862% → 59%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
61.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
60.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 6 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
61.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 1
50
-10
61.3%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Teven Jenkins) to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
59.4%
Tom Hutton punt for 47 yds, fair catch by R.J. Sneed at the Bayl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8FUMBLE
7 plays · 9 yds · 3:3541% → 41%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
59.1%
John Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 12Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+21
58.9%
Charlie Brewer run for 21 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-11
58.0%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 11 yards to the Bayl 22 Charlie Brewer fumbled, recovered by BaylSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 21
OWN 22
-5
58.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 17Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 26
OWN 17
+1
57.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 1 yd to the Bayl 18Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 25
OWN 18
-11
58.2%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Mike Scott for a loss of 11 yards to the Bayl 7Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 36
OWN 7
0
59.4%
Issac Power punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the Bayl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:0562% → 73%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
61.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 11 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
62.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+6
62.8%
Spencer Sanders run for 6 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+1
61.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 1 yd to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
62.9%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete, PENALTY BAYLOR targeting (Miller, Chris) 13 yards to the BAYLOR12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST. Miller ejected.Similar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
62.9%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+8
62.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kalon Barnes) to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
62.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q2 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:1630% → 35%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+53
66.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 63 yds to the OKLAST 10 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OKSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
66.1%
John Lovett run for 15 yds to the OKSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
66.1%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 7Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
65.5%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Devin Harper for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 11Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
67.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q2 1:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
64.9%
John Mayers 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11INT
11 plays · 75 yds · 0:4965% → 67%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
64.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 8 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+6
65.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jelani Woods for 6 yds to the OKSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
65.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 12 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
66.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
67.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jelani Woods for 10 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+31
67.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 31 yds to the Bayl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
68.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
68.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+18
67.4%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Kalon Barnes return for 18 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
66.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:4537% → 35%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
63.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
61.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
62.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
61.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
62.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+22
64.8%
Issac Power punt for 44 yds , Dillon Stoner returns for 22 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:0567% → 80%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
66.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 1 yd to the OKSt 41Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
66.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-1
65.7%
Chuba Hubbard run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 43Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+20
64.0%
Tom Hutton pass complete to Dayton Metcalf for 20 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
68.0%
Spencer Sanders run for no gain to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-10
67.9%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marcus Keyes) to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+29
66.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 29 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
69.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for no gain to the Bayl 18Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
69.6%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Wallace, Tylan, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Barnes, Kalon) 0 yards to the BAYLOR3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q3 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
80.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
3 plays · 83 yds · 0:1122% → 42%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+78
78.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 78 yds to the OKSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
58.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 2:5966% → 65%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 9 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
67.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
66.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
68.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 5 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+5
67.7%
LD Brown run for 5 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
69.3%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
69.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
68.1%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
65.3%
Tom Hutton punt for 40 yds, fair catch by R.J. Sneed at the Bayl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
6 plays · 93 yds · 2:3435% → 60%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+18
64.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 18 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
62.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
63.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
64.5%
John Lovett run for no gain to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+64
39.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 64 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5944% → 42%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
43.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
42.3%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
41.7%
Tom Hutton punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1160% → 60%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
38.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
38.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 2 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
39.7%
Issac Power punt for 59 yds, downed at the OKSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20TD
5 plays · 93 yds · 1:4542% → 71%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
41.6%
Chuba Hubbard run for 6 yds to the OKSt 13Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+6
42.0%
Spencer Sanders run for 6 yds to the OKSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
41.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 9 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+4
44.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the OKSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
70.8%
LD Brown run for 68 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3933% → 73%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
67.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 44 yds to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
60.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 4 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+12
60.0%
Brewer, Charlie pass incomplete, PENALTY OKLAST pass interference (Green, A.J.) 12 yards to the OKLAST15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
60.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the OKSt 13Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-4
59.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 17Similar
Q4 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
58.0%
John Lovett run for no gain to the OKSt 2Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
57.2%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the OKSt 2Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
27.0%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4539% → 14%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
38.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+2
38.8%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-20
13.8%
Terrel Bernard 20 Yd Fumble Return (John Mayers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 48 yds · 2:2613% → 9%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
13.4%
Chuba Hubbard run for 30 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
16.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Logan CarterSimilar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
15.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 4 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
15.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 6
OPP 41
+8
12.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 8 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
14.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+2
13.6%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+2
12.1%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 4
OPP 27
0
9.2%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24TD
1 play · 73 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
2.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 73 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25FUMBLE
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:521% → 1%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.1%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
1.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to LD Brown for 9 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
0.9%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-22
1.0%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Bravvion Roy for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 30 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Johnny Wilson) to the OKSt 15Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 25
OWN 22
+6
1.0%
Spencer Sanders run for 6 yds to the OKSt 28 Spencer Sanders fumbled, forced by Jordan Williams, recovered by Bayl Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 32
OWN 15
+7
1.0%
Spencer Sanders run for 7 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3599% → 99%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
1.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the OKSt 23Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+1
1.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the OKSt 22Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+1
0.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the OKSt 21Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 3
OPP 21
-3
0.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:401% → 1%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
0.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Jelani Woods for 2 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+9
0.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for 9 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Logan Carter for no gain to the OKSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:04
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
-30.2
TD · Q4 12:55
LD Brown run for 68 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
+26.4
TD · Q4 8:00
Terrel Bernard 20 Yd Fumble Return (John Mayers Kick)
-25
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com