Try the model
BAY

Baylor 31 at Kansas State 12

KSU
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:25 · Issac Power punt for 32 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Pregame prior−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:38: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 29 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +11.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:27: John Lovett run for 13 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +11.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:34: Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +10.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:24: Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 5 yds for a TD, (Skylar Thompson fumbled) — KSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:37: John Lovett run for 46 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:25KSU 4th & 5 at BAY 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    52.5%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:25BAY 4th & 2 at KSU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    47.4%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:16KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:49BAY 4th & 6 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:11KSU 4th & 8 at BAY 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:27BAY 4th & 7 at KSU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−3.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:39KSU 4th & 12 at KSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:38KSU 4th & 8 at KSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:03BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:33KSU 4th & 16 at BAY 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:11BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 37, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:21KSU 4th & 4 at BAY 11, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.7%−0.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−7.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00BAY 4th & 22 at BAY 13, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−5.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:24KSU 4th & 5 at BAY 5, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−3.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:33KSU 4th & 11 at BAY 34, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 6:38BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:27BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:34BAY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:37BAY Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
47.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 6 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+1
47.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
47.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
47.0%
Issac Power punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
47.5%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
47.5%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 5 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
47.5%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Malik Knowles, broken up by Kalon BarnesSimilar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
47.4%
Devin Anctil punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 49 yds · 0:0052% → 53%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+13
47.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 13 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
47.5%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
47.5%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 24Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+23
47.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 23 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
47.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
47.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 8 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
47.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
47.4%
Issac Power punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
48.0%
James Gilbert run for 8 yds to the KanSt 21Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 2
OWN 21
-3
48.1%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 18Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
47.8%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Malik KnowlesSimilar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
47.6%
Devin Anctil punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
47.5%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+1
47.5%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 6
50
0
47.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by AJ ParkerSimilar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 6
50
0
48.1%
Issac Power punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 5:1849% → 51%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
48.5%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Nick Lenners for 9 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+6
49.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 6 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
49.1%
Harry Trotter run for 3 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
49.2%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the KanSt 48 James Gilbert fumbled, forced by Jordan Williams, recovered by KanSt James GilbertSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+7
49.0%
Thompson, S. pass incomplete to Youngblood, J., PENALTY BU DPI (Texada,Raleigh) 7 yards to the BU45, 1ST DOWN KS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
49.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 15 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
49.5%
James Gilbert run for 15 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
49.5%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Joshua Youngblood for 5 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-3
49.5%
Joshua Youngblood run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 13Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
49.2%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
51.0%
Blake Lynch 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:4449% → 51%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+23
50.6%
John Lovett run for 8 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Elijah Sullivan) to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
49.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+27
49.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 27 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
49.0%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 23Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+4
49.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the KanSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+1
50.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 1 yd to the KanSt 18Similar
Q2 14:27
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+36
48.7%
John Mayers 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 22 yds · 1:4450% → 50%
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
50.3%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
50.6%
Harry Trotter run for no gain to the KanSt 26Similar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+7
49.8%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 7 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
50.7%
Harry Trotter run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 32Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+4
50.3%
Harry Trotter run for 4 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+9
50.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 9 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
52.1%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the KanSt 46Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
51.9%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the KanSt 46Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-3
50.6%
Skylar Thompson sacked by James Lockhart and James Lynch for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 43Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
49.5%
Devin Anctil punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD
7 plays · 98 yds · 2:2850% → 64%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
49.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-1 Yards) to the Bayl 1Similar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+11
49.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 11 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
49.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the Bayl 12Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+33
49.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 33 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
47.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+27
48.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 27 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
36.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 29 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
39.5%
Joe Ervin run for 7 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
40.8%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Jalen Pitre for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 27Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
38.5%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Chris HerronSimilar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
38.0%
Devin Anctil punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
37.7%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 25Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 15
OWN 25
0
39.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to JaMycal HastySimilar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+5
39.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
40.1%
Issac Power punt for 38 yds, downed at the KanSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+27
39.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 27 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
41.9%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Joshua YoungbloodSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
41.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Landry Weber for 6 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 4
OPP 35
-2
41.7%
Skylar Thompson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 6
OPP 37
-5
39.6%
KANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (Devin Anctil) to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 11
OPP 42
-5
38.4%
Anctil, Devin punt 40 yards to the BU2, downed, PENALTY KS illegal touching (Wheeler, Samuel) 5 yards to the BU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 16
OPP 47
0
37.6%
Devin Anctil punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
35.8%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
36.1%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
38.3%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Nick LennersSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
38.1%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the KanSt 44 James Gilbert fumbled, forced by Chris Miller, recovered by KanSt James GilbertSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-2
40.0%
Joe Ervin run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
37.6%
Devin Anctil punt for 49 yds, fair catch by R.J. Sneed at the Bayl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 2:0964% → 79%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+25
36.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 25 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
34.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 14 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
33.5%
Chris Platt run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 8
50
+25
33.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 25 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
32.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 12 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
20.8%
John Lovett run for 13 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16FUMBLE
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:0024% → 26%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
24.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Joshua Youngblood for 10 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
25.8%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 42Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+29
24.8%
James Gilbert run for 29 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
27.0%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 7
OPP 26
-5
27.0%
KANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Scott Frantz) to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+4
26.6%
Skylar Thompson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 8
OPP 27
-1
25.8%
Skylar Thompson sacked by James Lynch for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 28 Skylar Thompson fumbled, recovered by Bayl JT Woods , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
18.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-1
19.0%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+10
19.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 10 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
19.2%
Issac Power punt for 35 yds, downed at the KanSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 6:2420% → 23%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
20.1%
Joe Ervin run for 12 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
21.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 15 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
22.5%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
22.3%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+6
22.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 6 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
23.2%
Joe Ervin run for 4 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
23.4%
Joe Ervin run for no gain to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+11
22.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 11 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
23.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 18Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+2
23.0%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+5
22.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to James Gilbert for 5 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+29
22.6%
Blake Lynch 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:2180% → 79%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.3%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-17
20.1%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Bronson Massie for a loss of 17 yards to the Bayl 13 BAYLOR Penalty, intentional grounding (Charlie Brewer) to the Bayl 13Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
21.5%
Issac Power punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 2:0923% → 22%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
22.5%
James Gilbert run for 7 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 3
OWN 48
-6
23.6%
Skylar Thompson sacked by James Lynch for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 42Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+11
21.0%
Skylar Thompson run for 11 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+27
21.6%
Skylar Thompson pass intercepted Grayland Arnold return for 17 yds to the Bayl 30 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (Jameson Houston) to the Bayl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:0283% → 96%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
17.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-4
16.6%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Thornton,Tyquan, PENALTY BU ineligible downfield on pass (Fruhmorgen,Jake) 4 yards to the BU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+31
16.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 31 yds to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
15.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-15
12.8%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Mims,Denzel for 27 yards to the KS0, clock 11:11, PENALTY BU pass interference (Mims,Denzel) 15 yards to the KS42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 22
OPP 42
0
13.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 22
OPP 42
+38
14.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 38 yds to the KanSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.0%
Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:045% → 12%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
5.1%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+11
5.5%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Nick Lenners for 11 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+28
5.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Samuel Wheeler for 13 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, personal foul (Chris Miller) to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
6.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 9 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+2
6.3%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
6.3%
Skylar Thompson run for 7 yds to the Bayl 1Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
6.3%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 2Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
6.2%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Grayland Arnold for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 5Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
12.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 5 yds for a TD, (Skylar Thompson fumbled)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 0:4694% → 98%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
6.1%
Gerry Bohanon run for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 46 Gerry Bohanon fumbled, recovered by Bayl JaMycal HastySimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+46
1.6%
John Lovett run for 46 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 43 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
2.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 11 yds to the KanSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
2.6%
Thompson, S. pass incomplete to Brooks, Phillip, PENALTY KS ineligible downfield on pass (Brooks, Phillip) 5 yards to the KS23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 15
OWN 23
0
2.5%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Dalton SchoenSimilar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+10
2.5%
Skylar Thompson run for 10 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+18
2.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 18 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
2.8%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Samuel Wheeler, broken up by Terrel BernardSimilar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+16
2.8%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to James Gilbert for 16 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
3.3%
Harry Trotter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
3.1%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to AJ ParkerSimilar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 11
OPP 34
0
2.9%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Phillip BrooksSimilar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 11
OPP 34
-6
2.8%
Skylar Thompson sacked by James Lynch and Bravvion Roy for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
1.0%
Gerry Bohanon run for no gain to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+19
1.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 19 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
1.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 45Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 14
OPP 45
-2
1.0%
John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:27
John Lovett run for 13 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
-11.9
TD · Q2 6:38
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 29 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q4 10:34
Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
-10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com