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ISU

Iowa State 21 at Baylor 23

BAY
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:16 · Joe Rivera punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Home team on offense−0.8Score differential−2.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Pregame prior−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:00: Denzel Mims 24 Yd pass from Charlie Brewer (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — BAY win probability +17.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:34: Johnnie Lang run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +12.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:24: Brock Purdy pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 12 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +24.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:45: Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 20 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +35.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:21: John Mayers 38 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +38.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 11ISU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:32BAY 4th & 5 at ISU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:32ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:19BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:08ISU 4th & 1 at BAY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    52.7%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:31BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:43ISU 4th & 4 at BAY 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    51.4%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:43BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:19BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:16ISU 4th & 11 at ISU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:01BAY 4th & 5 at ISU 18, tied
    Close callWent for it · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    51.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−5.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00BAY 4th & 1 at ISU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    60.9%−3.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−3.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:00ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:20BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 10, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−2.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:25ISU 4th & 18 at BAY 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    18.7%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:58BAY 4th & 15 at ISU 28, up 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.3%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−5.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:24BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 19, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−4.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:21BAY 4th & 4 at ISU 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−29.4
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−47.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 0:58BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:00BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    80.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:26BAY Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:34ISU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:24ISU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:45ISU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−2.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
46.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 6 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
46.4%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
46.4%
Brock Purdy run for no gain to the IowSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
46.4%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
46.4%
Joe Rivera punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2MISSED FG
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:5147% → 48%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+46
46.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 46 yds to the IowSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
47.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 7 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-2
47.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 21Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
47.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
47.5%
John Mayers 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
47.2%
Brock Purdy run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 19Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+12
47.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 12 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
47.2%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 1 yd to the IowSt 32Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+7
47.2%
Brock Purdy run for 7 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-15
47.0%
Purdy, Brock pass complete to Pettway, L. for 13 yards to the BU48, out-of-bounds (Houston,Jameson), PENALTY ISU pass interference (Kolar, Charlie) 15 yards to the ISU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 17
OWN 24
+9
47.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sheldon Croney Jr. for 9 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 8
OWN 33
+3
47.4%
Joe Rivera punt for 43 yds , Grayland Arnold returns for 3 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
48.0%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+9
48.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jared Atkinson for 9 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
48.4%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-1
48.4%
Gerry Bohanon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
47.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
47.6%
Issac Power punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
48.1%
Johnnie Lang run for 4 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+5
48.1%
Brock Purdy run for 5 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+12
48.1%
Johnnie Lang run for 12 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
47.6%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
47.8%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the IowSt 40Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+11
48.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 11 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
47.2%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 4 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
47.2%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+5
47.4%
Brock Purdy run for 5 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
47.8%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for no gain to the Bayl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
50.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
50.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
49.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+31
48.7%
Issac Power punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the BAYLOR 14 BAYLOR Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the IowSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7MISSED FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:2052% → 51%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
48.5%
Brock Purdy run for 9 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+10
47.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 10 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
47.4%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
47.7%
Brock Purdy run for 1 yd to the IowSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+13
48.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 13 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
47.2%
Brock Purdy sacked by Clay Johnston for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+11
47.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 11 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
47.2%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+49
49.0%
Connor Assalley 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
51.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
51.4%
Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+4
51.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
51.3%
Issac Power punt for 41 yds, downed at the IowSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9INT
6 plays · 42 yds · 0:0050% → 52%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
49.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 11 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
49.7%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 1 yd to the IowSt 31Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+24
49.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 24 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
47.8%
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
47.8%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 4 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
48.1%
Brock Purdy pass intercepted Jordan Williams return for no gain to the Bayl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
52.9%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
52.9%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
52.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+39
51.2%
Issac Power punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the BAYLOR 26 IOWA ST Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4251% → 50%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
49.3%
Kene Nwangwu run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 25Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
49.4%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
49.5%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
50.5%
Joe Rivera punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 5:0352% → 67%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
52.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
50
0
54.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 10
50
0
53.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 10
50
+10
52.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 10 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
54.5%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 34 Charlie Brewer fumbled, forced by Anthony Johnson, recovered by Bayl Charlie Brewer , return for 9 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+11
55.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 11 yds to the IowSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
55.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 7 yds to the IowSt 16Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+1
55.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the IowSt 15Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 2
OPP 15
-3
54.1%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 18Similar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+7
54.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 7 yds to the IowSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
56.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the IowSt 9Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
67.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 9 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13MISSED FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 0:5734% → 39%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
65.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 11 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
64.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 11 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
63.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 18 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
59.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sheldon Croney Jr. for 2 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+49
61.5%
Connor Assalley 49 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by James Lynch Blake Lynch return for 46 yds to the IowSt 0 BAYLOR Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0065% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.0%
John Lovett run for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
66.2%
John Lovett run for 8 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
66.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 6 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
67.1%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
67.2%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
67.3%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
66.5%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the IowSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
65.2%
John Lovett run for 2 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
67.4%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Marcel Spears Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 44
0
66.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Justin BickhamSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 44
+20
64.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 20 yds to the IowSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
81.9%
Denzel Mims 24 Yd pass from Charlie Brewer (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.5%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Tarique Milton, broken up by Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
79.6%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie Kolar, broken up by Henry Black IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
80.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 15 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
78.0%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
78.4%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 2 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
78.6%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Landen Akers, broken up by Clay JohnstonSimilar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
79.7%
Joe Rivera punt for 43 yds , Grayland Arnold returns for no gain to the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
82.0%
John Lovett run for no gain to the Bayl 15Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
81.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-5
80.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 10Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 15
OWN 10
0
80.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 15
OWN 10
+9
80.1%
Issac Power punt for 50 yds , Deshaunte Jones returns for 9 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0021% → 18%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
78.8%
Kene Nwangwu run for 9 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+8
78.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Darren Wilson for 8 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
77.5%
Brock Purdy sacked by Jordan Williams and Bravvion Roy for a loss of 10 yards to the Bayl 44Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 20
OPP 44
0
80.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Johnnie LangSimilar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 20
OPP 44
+2
81.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sheldon Croney Jr. for 2 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 18
OPP 42
0
81.6%
Joe Rivera punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Grayland Arnold at the Bayl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 3:1186% → 97%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
85.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 12 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
86.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+15
86.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 15 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
86.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 11 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
87.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+9
87.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 9 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
96.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 35 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:523% → 16%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to La'Michael Pettway, broken up by Kalon BarnesSimilar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.7%
Kene Nwangwu run for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 1:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+33
96.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 33 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
96.4%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+30
96.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 30 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.8%
Johnnie Lang run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 47 yds · 4:3690% → 93%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
90.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 26 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
91.2%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+11
91.2%
John Lovett run for 11 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
91.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. Sneed, broken up by Braxton LewisSimilar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+11
90.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 11 yds to the IowSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
91.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+6
91.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 6 yds to the IowSt 20Similar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-8
91.0%
Charlie Brewer sacked by O'Rien Vance for a loss of 8 yards to the IowSt 28Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 15
OPP 28
0
93.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:2810% → 35%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
89.7%
Johnnie Lang run for 6 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+28
88.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Darren Wilson for 28 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
88.6%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
88.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 7 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-10
88.1%
Purdy, Brock pass complete to Allen, Chase for 6 yards to the BU25 (Lynch,Blake), PENALTY ISU holding (Meeker, Bryce) 10 yards to the BU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+14
89.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 14 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
64.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 12 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.1%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 25Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
82.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
81.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
80.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Mark Milton) to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 15
OWN 19
0
80.8%
Issac Power punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Deshaunte Jones at the IowSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:4527% → 69%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
72.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 2 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Blake Lynch) to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
68.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sheldon Croney Jr. for 5 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
67.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sheldon Croney Jr. for 3 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+15
68.2%
Purdy, Brock sacked for loss of 5 yards to the BU45 (Arnold,Grayland), PENALTY BU face mask (Arnold,Grayland) 15 yards to the BU25, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.3%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Sheldon Croney Jr.Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
66.4%
Brock Purdy run for 5 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+20
30.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 20 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24FG
18 plays · 54 yds · 3:2446% → 87%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
47.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 4 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
48.2%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
48.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 1 yd to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
47.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+10
45.7%
Charlie Brewer run for 10 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
52.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 15 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
53.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
53.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 5 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+6
53.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 6 yds to the IowSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
55.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 32Similar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
54.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+13
51.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 13 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 2
OPP 19
-2
48.7%
Charlie Brewer sacked by O'Rien Vance for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 21Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
87.0%
John Mayers 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0024% → 30%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
76.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 19 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
69.9%
Brock Purdy sacked by James Lockhart for a loss of 10 yards to the IowSt 26 Brock Purdy fumbled, recovered by Bayl James Lynch , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26Uncategorized
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
95.0%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:21
John Mayers 38 yd FG GOOD
+38.3
TD · Q4 3:45
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 20 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)
-35.5
TD · Q4 7:24
Brock Purdy pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 12 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)
-24.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com