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SFA

Stephen F. Austin 17 at Baylor 56

BAY
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadSFA aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreSFA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Issac Power punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFAus 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Pregame prior+44.8Home team on offense+3.8Score differential+0.6Blowout margin−0.4Garbage-time factor+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:48: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 16 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — SFA win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:17: Trae Self run for 3 yds for a TD, (Storm Ruiz KICK) — SFA win probability +0.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: SFA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:53: Trestan Ebner run for 21 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:48: Trestan Ebner run for 11 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:20: John Lovett run for 19 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 5SFA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00SFA 4th & 3 at SFA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:48SFA 4th & 18 at SFA 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:40BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:42SFA 4th & 6 at SFA 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00BAY 4th & 6 at SFA 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:56BAY 4th & 6 at SFA 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:53SFA 4th & 1 at SFA 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:48SFA 4th & 2 at SFA 33, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:53SFA 4th & 4 at SFA 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:36BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 43, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:40SFA 4th & 7 at SFA 28, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:24SFA 4th & 1 at BAY 20, down 42
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:24BAY 4th & 19 at BAY 11, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:57SFA 4th & 9 at BAY 37, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:16SFA 4th & 9 at BAY 15, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 8SFA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:48BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:13BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:17SFA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:53BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:48BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:20BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:40BAY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:07BAY Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:26BAY Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:04SFA Touchdown, down 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SFADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.3%
Thomas Hutchings run for 3 yds to the SFAus 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.3%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.3%
Trae Self pass complete to Calvin Clater for 4 yds to the SFAus 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.3%
Max Quick punt, downed at the SFAus 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:3499% → 99%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 8 yds to the SFAus 37Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+1
99.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the SFAus 36Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+1
99.2%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the SFAus 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
99.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 4 yds to the SFAus 31Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+15
99.2%
John Lovett run for 15 yds to the SFAus 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 16 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
99.1%
Trae Self pass complete to Remi Simmons for a loss of 3 yards to the SFAus 13Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 13
OWN 13
-5
99.1%
Thomas Hutchings run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFAus 8Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 18
OWN 8
0
99.1%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Calvin ClaterSimilar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 18
OWN 8
+13
99.1%
Max Quick punt for 51 yds , Grayland Arnold returns for 13 yds to the SFAus 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:5199% → 99%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
99.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 23 yds to the SFAus 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
99.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the SFAus 17Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+6
99.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 6 yds to the SFAus 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 11 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:561% → 2%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
99.0%
Trae Self pass complete to Xavier Gipson for 26 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.0%
Thomas Hutchings run for 4 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
99.0%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Xavier GipsonSimilar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+8
99.0%
Thomas Hutchings run for 8 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
99.0%
Josh McGowen run for 10 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
99.0%
Josh McGowen run for 4 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
99.0%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+15
99.0%
Trae Self pass complete to Remi Simmons for 15 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
99.0%
Thomas Hutchings run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 9Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
99.0%
Thomas Hutchings run for 6 yds to the Bayl 3Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.4%
Trae Self run for 3 yds for a TD, (Storm Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:3799% → 99%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
98.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 12 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Josh FleeksSimilar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
98.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+8
98.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Christoph Henle for 8 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+17
98.5%
Issac Power punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFAus 30 , Romello Bentley returns for 17 yds to the SFAus 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.4%
Thomas Hutchings run for no gain to the SFAus 30Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
98.4%
Trae Self pass complete to Remi Simmons for 4 yds to the SFAus 34Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
98.4%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Thomas Hutchings, broken up by Terrel BernardSimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
98.4%
Max Quick punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFAus 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2898% → 98%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
98.4%
Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Ebner,Trestan for 4 yards to the SFA45, out-of-bounds (Roland, Gavin), PENALTY BU holding (Sneed,R.J.) 10 yards to the BU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 20
OWN 41
0
98.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+2
98.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 2 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 43
+12
98.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 12 yds to the SFAus 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
98.2%
Issac Power punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFAus 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 9INT
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-6
98.1%
Trae Self sacked by James Lynch for a loss of 6 yards to the SFAus 18Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 16
OWN 18
+1
98.1%
Trae Self pass intercepted Blake Lynch return for 1 yd to the SFAus 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:2098% → 99%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
98.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to John LovettSimilar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
98.2%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the SFAus 28Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-2
98.1%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 30Similar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+9
97.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 9 yds to the SFAus 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
98.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for no gain to the SFAus 21Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
98.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 21 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.4%
Trae Self pass complete to Calvin Clater for 7 yds to the SFAus 32Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
98.3%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the SFAus 34Similar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
98.4%
Max Quick punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 2:3498% → 99%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
98.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
98.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 7 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
98.4%
SFA Penalty, personal foul (Eli Jones) to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
98.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 21 yds to the SFAus 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
98.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the SFAus 34Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+15
98.5%
Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Platt,Chris, PENALTY SFA pass interference (Jones, Eli) 15 yards to the SFA19, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
98.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 3 yds to the SFAus 16Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+5
98.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 5 yds to the SFAus 11Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+11
99.2%
Trestan Ebner run for 11 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.0%
Trae Self pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 8 yds to the SFAus 33Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
98.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for no gain to the SFAus 33Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
99.0%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.0%
Max Quick punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFAus 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:1199% → 100%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
99.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the SFAus 42Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
99.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Josh FleeksSimilar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+8
99.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 8 yds to the SFAus 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for 2 yds to the SFAus 32Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+5
99.2%
SFA Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the SFAus 27Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+6
99.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the SFAus 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
99.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the SFAus 19Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+19
99.7%
John Lovett run for 19 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:270% → 0%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Trae Self run for 4 yds to the SFAus 29Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
99.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the SFAus 31Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Remi SimmonsSimilar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+1
99.8%
Max Quick punt for 48 yds , R.J. Sneed returns for 1 yd to the Bayl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+18
99.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 18 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims, broken up by Trenton GordonSimilar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 3 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
99.7%
Issac Power punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Romello Bentley at the SFAus 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
99.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for a loss of 6 yards to the SFAus 14Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+1
99.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the SFAus 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
99.8%
John Lovett run for 38 yds to the SFAus 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
99.8%
John Lovett run for 9 yds to the SFAus 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+7
99.8%
John Lovett run for 7 yds to the SFAus 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 21 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the SFAus 28Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Remi SimmonsSimilar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.8%
Max Quick punt for 39 yds , Grayland Arnold returns for 2 yds to the Bayl 37 Grayland Arnold fumbled, recovered by Bayl Grayland ArnoldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:39100% → 100%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
99.8%
Gerry Bohanon run for 22 yds to the SFAus 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
99.8%
John Lovett run for 9 yds to the SFAus 32Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+5
99.8%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the SFAus 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
99.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Jared Atkinson for 16 yds to the SFAus 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
99.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the SFAus 9Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 9 yds for a TD, (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 21MISSED FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:430% → 0%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the SFAus 30Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
99.9%
Trae Self pass complete to QuenTyvian Borders for a loss of 3 yards to the SFAus 27Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Trae Self pass complete to QuenTyvian Borders for 9 yds to the SFAus 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the SFAus 39Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-15
99.9%
Self, Trae pass complete to Clater, Calvin for 8 yards to the SFA47 (Milton,Mark;Williams,Jordan), PENALTY SFA pass interference (Gipson, Xavier) 15 yards to the SFA24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 22
OWN 24
+34
99.9%
Trae Self pass complete to Xavier Gipson for 34 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
99.9%
Thomas Hutchings run for 13 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
99.8%
Trae Self pass complete to Cody Williams for 9 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 1
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+37
99.8%
Storm Ruiz 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Gabe Hall TEAM return for no gain to the Bayl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 9
OWN 21
-5
99.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 16Similar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 14
OWN 16
-5
99.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 11Similar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 19
OWN 11
0
99.9%
Issac Power punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Romello Bentley at the SFAus 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
99.9%
Trae Self pass complete to Lawton Rikel for 23 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for no gain to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-5
99.9%
Trae Self sacked by Niadre Zouzoua for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+6
99.9%
Trae Self pass complete to Thomas Hutchings for 6 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Max Quick punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
99.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 9 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 9 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Abram Smith run for no gain to the Bayl 30 Abram Smith fumbled, forced by Quin Jones, recovered by SFAus Willie RobertsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 25FG
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:370% → 0%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
99.9%
Josh McGowen run for 6 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+3
99.9%
Josh McGowen run for 3 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+5
99.9%
Thomas Hutchings run for 5 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
99.9%
Trae Self pass complete to Xavier Gipson for 1 yd to the Bayl 15Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Trae Self pass incomplete to Calvin ClaterSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Trae Self pass complete to Cody Williams for no gain to the Bayl 15Similar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+32
99.9%
Storm Ruiz 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 6:50100% → 100%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.9%
Gerry Bohanon run for 6 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
99.9%
Gerry Bohanon run for 1 yd to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
99.9%
Gerry Bohanon run for 16 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
100.0%
Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+8
100.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Koby Bullard for 8 yds to the SFAus 45Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
100.0%
Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the SFAus 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
100.0%
Qualan Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 43Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-5
100.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SFAus 48Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 16
OPP 48
+5
100.0%
Gerry Bohanon run for 5 yds to the SFAus 43Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+34
100.0%
Gerry Bohanon run for 34 yds to the SFAus 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
100.0%
Abram Smith run for 9 yds for a TD, (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 27TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:220% → 0%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Josh McGowen run for 3 yds to the SFAus 28Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
100.0%
Cam Arnold sacked by Brayden Utley and Matt Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the SFAus 24Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+11
100.0%
Cam Arnold run for 11 yds to the SFAus 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
100.0%
Cam Arnold pass complete to Josh Thompson for 18 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
100.0%
Josh McGowen run for 11 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+35
100.0%
Thomas Hutchings run for 35 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Josh McGowen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Storm Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Jacoby Clarke run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
100.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
100.0%
Jacoby Clarke run for 3 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:48
Trestan Ebner run for 11 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 3:17
Trae Self run for 3 yds for a TD, (Storm Ruiz KICK)
-0.5
TD · Q2 10:53
Trestan Ebner run for 21 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
+0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com