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ND

Notre Dame 38 at Duke 7

DUKE
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:47 · Jay Bramblett punt for 40 yds, downed at the NDame 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense−33.0Pregame prior−9.5Score differential−17.6Garbage-time factor−6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:03: Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 7 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +3.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:58: C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +7.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:55: Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 29 yds for a TD (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +7.6 pts (now 22%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:10: Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 6 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +9.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:52: Ian Book run for 3 yds to the NDame 28 — ND win probability +5.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 10 of 12ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00ND 4th & 3 at ND 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:49DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:57DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 24, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:03DUKE 4th & 11 at DUKE 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ND 4th & 5 at DUKE 44, up 14
    Close callPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    71.2%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:44DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:17ND 4th & 1 at ND 45, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:21DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:58DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:33ND 4th & 2 at ND 17, up 21
    Close callPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:04DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:47ND 4th & 11 at ND 8, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:28DUKE 4th & 5 at ND 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%−1.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:28DUKE 4th & 3 at ND 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−0.7
    66% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−6.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:52ND 4th & 5 at ND 30, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:24DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:59ND 4th & 13 at DUKE 16, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    95.3%−1.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:40ND 4th & 2 at DUKE 21, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−1.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:33DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 5, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:15DUKE 4th & 3 at ND 39, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:02ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:03ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:58ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:55DUKE Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:10ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:21ND Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
26.7%
Ian Book run for 3 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
26.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete, broken up by Josh BlackwellSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
26.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 44 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for 1 yd to the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
27.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Deon Jackson for 10 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
27.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 6 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
27.3%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
27.3%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 13:49
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
27.3%
Austin Parker punt for 42 yds, downed at the NDame 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 3:1172% → 73%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
28.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the NDame 16Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
28.5%
Ian Book run for 5 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+14
28.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 14 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
28.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 30 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
28.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Cole Kmet, broken up by Marquis WatersSimilar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
28.0%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+13
28.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 13 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
28.0%
Ian Book run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 11
OPP 23
0
28.0%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+5
28.1%
I. BOOK pass incomplete to C. CLAYPOOL, PENALTY DU offside (Jordan,D.) 5 yards to the DU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+18
27.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 18 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
27.7%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+3
27.8%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+1
27.7%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
27.5%
Austin Parker punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:4972% → 76%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+40
27.6%
Jahmir Smith run for 40 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
27.1%
Lawrence Keys III run for 15 yds to the Duke 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
27.1%
Jahmir Smith run for 3 yds to the Duke 7Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
27.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Cole Kmet, broken up by Leonard JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
24.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 7 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
25.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 21Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+3
25.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 3 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
25.2%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
25.2%
Austin Parker punt for 53 yds, downed at the NDame 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:2776% → 77%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
24.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 21 NOTRE DAME Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+17
24.1%
Ian Book run for 17 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
23.6%
Jafar Armstrong run for 1 yd to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+7
23.6%
Jafar Armstrong run for 7 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+5
23.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Tony Jones Jr. for 5 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
23.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
23.5%
Tony Jones Jr. run for no gain to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+5
23.1%
I. BOOK pass incomplete to J. McKINLEY, PENALTY DU offside (Dimukeje,V.) 5 yards to the DU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
23.0%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
23.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
24.2%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
24.2%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Jalon Calhoun) to the Duke 16Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+1
24.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 17Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 14
OWN 17
+8
24.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 8 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
24.0%
Austin Parker punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
22.8%
I. BOOK pass incomplete to C. CLAYPOOL, PENALTY DU pass interference (Johnson,L.) 15 yards to the ND36, 1ST DOWN ND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
22.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 5 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
22.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
22.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the NDame 45Similar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+6
22.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 44 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for 6 yds to the Duke 15 Josh Blackwell fumbled, forced by Alohi Gilman,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
22.6%
Quentin Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 14Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+2
22.5%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
22.3%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
22.3%
Austin Parker punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:0278% → 87%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
21.6%
C'Bo Flemister run for 11 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
21.0%
C'Bo Flemister run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+12
21.2%
Ian Book run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
50
+45
20.9%
Ian Book run for 45 yds to the Duke 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
20.9%
I. BOOK pass incomplete to C. CLAYPOOL, PENALTY DU pass interference (Johnson,L.) 3 yards to the DU2, 1ST DOWN ND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
15.4%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
15.5%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
15.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 6 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
16.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
15.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 3 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
16.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q2 7:58
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
15.7%
Austin Parker punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
12.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 6 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 4
OWN 15
0
12.8%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tommy TrembleSimilar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 4
OWN 15
-7
13.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive holding (-7 Yards) to the NDame 8Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+5
13.4%
I. BOOK pass incomplete to C. KMET, QB hurry by Quansah,K., PENALTY DU offside (Dimukeje,V.) 5 yards to the ND13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+4
13.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 4 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
13.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 22 yds, downed at the NDame 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14TD
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:2215% → 22%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
14.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 10 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
22.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 29 yds for a TD (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0080% → 81%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.9%
Ian Book run for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
19.8%
I. BOOK pass incomplete to C. FINKE, PENALTY DU pass interference (Carter,M.) 15 yards to the ND45, 1ST DOWN ND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
18.9%
I. BOOK pass incomplete to J. ARMSTRONG, PENALTY ND illegal touching (J. ARMSTRONG) 0 yards to the ND45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
19.0%
Ian Book pass intercepted Shaka Heyward return for 12 yds to the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16MISSED FG
13 plays · 25 yds · 2:0921% → 18%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
21.4%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+8
21.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Deon Jackson for 8 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
21.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 9 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 1
OPP 31
-1
21.1%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 32Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+4
20.5%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
21.2%
Harris,Q. rush for 2 yards to the ND26, out-of-bounds, PENALTY DU holding (Holman,C.) 10 yards to the ND38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 20
OPP 38
+1
20.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 1 yd to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 19
OPP 37
+5
20.0%
Harris,Q. pass incomplete, PENALTY ND offside (K. KAREEM) 5 yards to the ND32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+6
20.7%
Quentin Harris run for 6 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+44
17.9%
AJ Reed 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0019% → 21%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
19.0%
Deon Jackson run for 19 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
20.4%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
20.3%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+5
19.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 5 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 5
OPP 49
+9
20.1%
Parker,A. pass incomplete to Pancol,E., PENALTY ND holding (T. AGORO) 9 yards to the ND40, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+69
20.6%
Quentin Harris pass intercepted Troy Pride Jr. return for 39 yds to the NDame 1 NOTRE DAME Penalty, illegal block (30 Yards) to the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:2883% → 94%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
17.0%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+23
17.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 23 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+35
15.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 35 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
15.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 22Similar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+2
15.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 2 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+6
15.6%
Ian Book run for 6 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+7
15.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Tony Jones Jr. for 7 yds to the Duke 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
15.5%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the Duke 6Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
15.5%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
6.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 6 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
8.8%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
8.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Eli Pancol for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
9.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Eli Pancol, broken up by Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahSimilar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
8.8%
Austin Parker punt for 50 yds, downed at the NDame 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
6.0%
Jahmir Smith run for no gain to the NDame 9Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-1
6.1%
Ian Book sacked by Shaka Heyward for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 8Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 11
OWN 8
0
6.2%
Ian Book pass incomplete, broken up by Josh BlackwellSimilar
Q3 7:47
4TH & 11
OWN 8
0
6.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 40 yds, downed at the NDame 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
8.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Deon Jackson for 1 yd to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+2
8.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 2 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+2
8.3%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+11
8.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 11 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
9.2%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+2
9.4%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 2
OPP 24
-1
8.9%
Quentin Harris sacked by Drew White for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 3
OPP 25
0
8.7%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Scott Bracey, broken up by Donte VaughnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
3.0%
Ian Book run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
3.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
3.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
3.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
4.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Mataeo DurantSimilar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
4.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete, broken up by Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahSimilar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
4.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+5
4.1%
Austin Parker punt for 52 yds , Chris Finke returns for 5 yds to the NDame 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24FG
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:5797% → 98%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
2.7%
Jafar Armstrong run for 5 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+53
2.6%
Ian Book run for 53 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
2.3%
Lawrence Keys III run for 5 yds to the Duke 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
-8
2.3%
Ian Book run for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 16
0
2.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete, broken up by Victor DimukejeSimilar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+34
2.3%
Jonathan Doerer 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
2.4%
Quentin Harris run for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 29 Quentin Harris fumbled, recovered by NDame TaRiq BracySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26INT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0098% → 99%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
1.8%
Jahmir Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+6
1.8%
Jahmir Smith run for 6 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+4
1.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 4 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 2
OPP 21
0
1.2%
Ian Book pass intercepted Michael Carter II return for no gain to the Duke 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
2.0%
Chris Katrenick run for 1 yd to the Duke 2Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
2.0%
Chris Katrenick pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+3
2.0%
Chris Katrenick run for 3 yds to the Duke 5Similar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+46
2.0%
Austin Parker punt for 54 yds , Chris Finke returns for 46 yds to the Duke 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 28TD
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:3199% → 100%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
0.9%
Jahmir Smith run for 5 yds to the Duke 8Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
0.9%
Jahmir Smith run for 4 yds to the Duke 4Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
0.9%
Jahmir Smith run for 2 yds to the Duke 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
Ian Book pass complete to George Takacs for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
0.2%
Chris Katrenick pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
0.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 8 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
0.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
0.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the NDame 45Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+4
0.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+2
0.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
0.2%
Chris Katrenick pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 30Uncategorized
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
0.1%
Phil Jurkovec run for 13 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
0.1%
Phil Jurkovec run for 6 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-8
0.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 7 yds to the Duke 34 NOTRE DAME Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
0.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 6 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+5
0.1%
Phil Jurkovec run for 5 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-21
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 21 yards to the NDame 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:10
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 6 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q2 7:58
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q2 2:55
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 29 yds for a TD (AJ Reed KICK)
+7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com