2019 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2019 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:23 · Chase Brice pass incomplete to Brannon Spector
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:52: Trevor Lawrence run for 6 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:39: Travis Etienne run for 90 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:45: Travis Etienne run for 14 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:34: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 62 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6GT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 13:42CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 42, tiedClose callPunted · 98.0% before the snapGo for it98.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:59GT 4th & 18 at GT 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q1 3:33GT 4th & 3 at CLEM 45, down 14Close callPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.6%52% to convertField goal2.5%−0.225% to makePuntTheir call2.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:36CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 48, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.2%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.2%average punt
- Q2 8:56GT 4th & 1 at CLEM 36, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.9%71% to convertField goal1.6%−0.342% to makePunt1.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 6:35GT 4th & 1 at CLEM 1, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.9%59% to convertField goal1.5%−0.494% to makePunt0.6%−1.3average punt
- Q2 2:12GT 4th & 19 at GT 29, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.511% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 1:00CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 40, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
- Q2 0:32GT 4th & 9 at GT 26, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 13:11GT 4th & 21 at GT 14, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.38% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 4:23CLEM 4th & 4 at GT 15, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%46% to convertField goal99.8%−<0.183% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 3:07GT 4th & 6 at GT 19, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:11CLEM 4th & 5 at GT 34, up 35Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%42% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−<0.147% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:48GT 4th & 3 at GT 32, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:57CLEM 4th & 2 at GT 36, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%57% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.142% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:52CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:39CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:45CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:34CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:42CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:40GT Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.4%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:08CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:54CLEM Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:33GT Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1FUMBLE5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5899% → 99%
CLEMDrive 2TD5 plays · 16 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
GTDrive 3PUNT10 plays · 17 yds · 3:452% → 2%
CLEMDrive 4FUMBLE4 plays · 26 yds · 1:0098% → 98%
Q1 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+14
98.0%
Travis Etienne run for 14 yds to the Clem 41 Travis Etienne fumbled, forced by Juanyeh Thomas, recovered by GTech Justice DingleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5PUNT3 plays · 5 yds · 0:292% → 2%
CLEMDrive 6TD1 play · 80 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 41 yds · 2:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8PUNT12 plays · 41 yds · 4:3298% → 98%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
98.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to T.J. Chase for 1 yd to the Clem 8Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+8
98.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to J.C. Chalk for 8 yds to the Clem 16Similar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+22
98.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Lyn-J Dixon for 22 yds to the Clem 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-2
98.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 32Similar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
98.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Diondre Overton for 3 yds to the Clem 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9FUMBLE3 plays · 5 yds · 0:322% → 2%
Q2 12:49
3RD & 1
OWN 18
-4
97.6%
Jamious Griffin run for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 14 Jamious Griffin fumbled, forced by Chad Smith, recovered by Clem Xavier KellySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10TD1 play · 14 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11DOWNS9 plays · 39 yds · 3:371% → 2%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Tobias Oliver pass complete to Jordan Mason for no gain to the GTech 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12INT2 plays · 3 yds · 0:2899% → 99%
GTDrive 13INT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:342% → 2%
Q2 6:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+6
98.4%
Tobias Oliver pass intercepted Denzel Johnson return for 6 yds to the Clem 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14TD6 plays · 94 yds · 2:0199% → 100%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
99.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 62 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 2:120% → 0%
CLEMDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
GTDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:240% → 0%
Q2 0:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.6%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Derion Kendrick at the Clem 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18FUMBLE5 plays · 0 yds · 0:28100% → 100%
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+10
99.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 10 yds to the Clem 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 20
OWN 32
-2
99.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass intercepted Kaleb Oliver return for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 36 Kaleb Oliver fumbled, recovered by GTech Kaleb OliverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 1:372% → 0%
Q3 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
99.7%
Tobias Oliver sacked by Nyles Pinckney for a loss of 10 yards to the GTech 17Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-3
99.7%
Tobias Oliver sacked by Xavier Thomas and Tyler Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 14Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
99.7%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Derion Kendrick at the Clem 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20TD2 plays · 60 yds · 0:18100% → 100%
GTDrive 21TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+54
99.8%
Tobias Oliver pass complete to Jerry Howard Jr. for 54 yds to the Clem 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22TD9 plays · 77 yds · 3:19100% → 100%
Q3 10:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+20
99.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Jaelyn Lay for 20 yds to the GTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23INT5 plays · 11 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
99.8%
Tobias Oliver pass intercepted Tanner Muse return for 13 yds to the GTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q3 3:07
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Derion Kendrick at the Clem 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26TD7 plays · 67 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
GTDrive 27TD12 plays · 90 yds · 4:040% → 0%
Q4 14:06
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+7
99.9%
James Graham pass complete to Tyler Davis for 7 yds to the GTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
99.9%
James Graham pass complete to Jerry Howard Jr. for 3 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+34
99.9%
James Graham pass complete to Josh Blancato for 34 yds to the Clem 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.9%
James Graham sacked by K.J. Henry and Jake Venables for 0 yards to the Clem 27Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+28
99.9%
James Graham pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 28 yds for a TD, (Wesley Wells KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 28FG10 plays · 41 yds · 3:54100% → 100%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Will Swinney for 4 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+13
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Cornell Powell for 13 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+3
100.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Brannon Spector for 3 yds to the GTech 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 29PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q4 4:48
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+8
100.0%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 41 yds , Will Swinney returns for 8 yds to the Clem 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 30END OF 4TH QUARTER11 plays · 42 yds · 4:30100% → 100%
Q4 4:01
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+11
100.0%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 11 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:45
Travis Etienne run for 14 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+1.1
TD · Q2 4:34
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 62 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 5:39
Travis Etienne run for 90 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+0.4