2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Williams-Brice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:29 · B.T. Potter 32 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:46: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 65 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 7:33: Parker White 39 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +1.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:04: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 16 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +3.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: B.T. Potter 46 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +1.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:59: Travis Etienne run for 2 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 8 of 9CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 8:59CLEM 4th & 1 at SC 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.8%59% to convertField goal92.7%−0.294% to makePunt92.2%−0.7average punt
- Q1 5:37SC 4th & 14 at SC 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.4%average punt
- Q1 1:56SC 4th & 12 at SC 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.422% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.1%average punt
- Q2 14:38CLEM 4th & 9 at SC 45, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snapGo for it92.9%−0.132% to convertField goal92.7%−0.325% to makePuntTheir call93.0%average punt
- Q2 7:33SC 4th & 6 at CLEM 21, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.2% before the snapGo for it8.0%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call8.1%74% to makePunt7.0%−1.1average punt
- Q2 1:17SC 4th & 9 at SC 26, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it5.8%−0.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%average punt
- Q3 14:08SC 4th & 7 at SC 28, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it5.1%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%average punt
- Q3 8:26SC 4th & 6 at SC 29, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q3 5:56CLEM 4th & 11 at CLEM 39, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
- Q3 2:32SC 4th & 10 at SC 48, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q4 10:26SC 4th & 2 at SC 33, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%average punt
- Q4 7:29CLEM 4th & 5 at SC 15, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%83% to makePunt99.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 5:20SC 4th & 3 at SC 27, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:04CLEM 4th & 10 at SC 46, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.130% to convertField goal99.8%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 6:58CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.5%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:46CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.0%97% to makeGo for two93.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:04CLEM Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.1%97% to makeGo for two93.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:59CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:56CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1DOWNS16 plays · 63 yds · 5:4596% → 94%
Q1 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
4.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 11 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+7
4.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 7 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
5.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 3 yds to the SCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2INT4 plays · 23 yds · 1:026% → 6%
CLEMDrive 3TD4 plays · 23 yds · 0:4894% → 94%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
6.2%
Lawrence, Trevor pass incomplete to Ross, Justyn, PENALTY SOCAROLINA pass interference (Mukuamu, Israel) 12 yards to the SOCAROLINA11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
5.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 10 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:166% → 6%
Q1 6:12
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+1
6.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 1 yd to the SCaro 21Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+7
6.2%
Joseph Charlton punt for 51 yds , Derion Kendrick returns for 7 yds to the Clem 28 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sheridan Jones) to the Clem 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:4594% → 94%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
5.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 65 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:436% → 6%
CLEMDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 2:0994% → 94%
Q1 1:09
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+7
5.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 7 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8FG16 plays · 76 yds · 7:006% → 8%
CLEMDrive 9TD11 plays · 90 yds · 4:1092% → 96%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
8.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 13 yds to the Clem 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
8.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 1 yd to the Clem 24Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-5
8.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Lyn-J Dixon for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 19Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 14
OWN 19
+26
9.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 26 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+37
8.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 37 yds to the SCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
8.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to J.C. Chalk for 3 yds to the SCaro 15Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-1
8.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Diondre Overton for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 16Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+16
4.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 16 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 1 yds · 1:476% → 6%
CLEMDrive 11END OF HALF10 plays · 37 yds · 1:1195% → 97%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
5.3%
Lawrence, Trevor pass incomplete to Ross, Justyn, PENALTY CLEMSON holding (Carman, Jackson) 10 yards to the CLEMSON24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+7
5.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Diondre Overton for 7 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+20
5.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Diondre Overton for 20 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
4.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 5 yds to the SCaro 44Similar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
4.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 7 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:475% → 5%
Q3 14:08
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
4.5%
Joseph Charlton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Derion Kendrick at the Clem 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13TD11 plays · 69 yds · 4:0396% → 99%
Q3 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+9
3.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 9 yds to the Clem 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
3.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 2
50
+15
3.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 15 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
2.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to J.C. Chalk for 4 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
2.8%
Lawrence, Trevor pass incomplete to Higgins, Tee (TEAM), PENALTY SOCAROLINA roughing passer (Enagbare, Kingsley) 7 yards to the SOCAROLINA7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON, QB hurry by TEAM, QB hit by TEAM.Similar
Q3 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
2.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to J.C. Chalk for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 11Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
2.8%
Lawrence, Trevor pass incomplete to Ladson Jr., Frank, PENALTY SOCAROLINA pass interference (Mukuamu, Israel) 9 yards to the SOCAROLINA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:282% → 2%
CLEMDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2299% → 99%
SCDrive 16PUNT10 plays · 39 yds · 3:172% → 1%
Q3 5:25
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+2
1.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Shi Smith for 2 yds to the SCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
1.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Chavis Dawkins for 1 yd to the SCaro 21Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+6
1.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Kyle Markway for 6 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+3
1.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 3 yds to the SCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
1.0%
Joseph Charlton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Derion Kendrick at the Clem 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD14 plays · 84 yds · 5:3099% → 100%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
0.4%
Lawrence, Trevor pass complete to Dixon, Lyn-J for 3 yards to the SOCAROLINA30, PENALTY CLEMSON holding (Carman, Jackson) 10 yards to the SOCAROLINA43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+17
0.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 17 yds to the SCaro 26Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+7
0.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 7 yds to the SCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 1:250% → 0%
CLEMDrive 19MISSED FG7 plays · 18 yds · 2:51100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 2 yds to the SCaro 22Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
0.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Tavien Feaster for no gain to the SCaro 22Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+5
0.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 5 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
0.1%
Joseph Charlton punt for 48 yds , Will Swinney returns for no gain to the Clem 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 3:09100% → 100%
SCDrive 22Uncategorized4 plays · 14 yds · 1:520% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:04
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 16 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
-3.9
TD · Q3 9:59
Travis Etienne run for 2 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
-1.5
FG · Q2 7:33
Parker White 39 yd FG GOOD
+1.2