2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:42 · Pressley Harvin III punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dominick Blaylock at the Geo 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:52: Brian Herrien run for 2 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +0.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:21: Jake Fromm pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 20 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +1.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:58: James Graham pass complete to Tyler Davis for 6 yds for a TD (Brenton King KICK) — GT win probability +1.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:32: Jake Fromm pass complete to Tyler Simmons for 17 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +3.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:44: Jake Fromm pass complete to George Pickens for 41 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +3.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 11 of 14UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
- Q1 13:42GT 4th & 4 at GT 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it5.2%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%average punt
- Q1 13:18UGA 4th & 10 at UGA 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.7%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.8%average punt
- Q1 11:29GT 4th & 4 at GT 19, tiedClose callPunted · 5.8% before the snapGo for it5.8%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 10:00UGA 4th & 6 at GT 32, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snapGo for it93.7%40% to convertField goalTheir call93.7%−<0.151% to makePunt93.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:32GT 4th & 13 at GT 23, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.4%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q1 3:15GT 4th & 7 at GT 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.9%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q2 14:47GT 4th & 5 at GT 30, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it6.0%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.0%average punt
- Q2 14:21UGA 4th & 10 at UGA 35, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snapGo for it94.3%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.6%average punt
- Q2 13:19GT 4th & 8 at GT 22, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snapGo for it5.9%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q2 9:31GT 4th & 8 at UGA 45, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snapGo for it8.7%−0.134% to convertField goal8.5%−0.325% to makePuntTheir call8.8%average punt
- Q2 3:33GT 4th & 2 at UGA 10, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snapGo for it10.4%55% to convertField goalTheir call10.1%−0.488% to makePunt8.0%−2.5average punt
- Q2 0:00UGA 4th & 4 at GT 25, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snapGo for it89.6%47% to convertField goalTheir call89.4%−0.266% to makePunt87.4%−2.3average punt
- Q3 11:37GT 4th & 10 at midfield, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it6.9%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q3 7:51GT 4th & 10 at GT 4, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it5.8%−0.825% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q3 5:50GT 4th & 12 at GT 8, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.421% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q3 2:59GT 4th & 2 at GT 33, down 31Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:40GT 4th & 18 at GT 17, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.112% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 7:16UGA 4th & 1 at GT 46, up 38Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%70% to convertField goal99.5%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call99.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 5:41GT 4th & 9 at GT 3, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 3:06UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 49, up 38Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 4:52UGA Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.9%97% to makeGo for two92.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:21UGA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:58GT Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.5%97% to makeGo for two8.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:32UGA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.0%97% to makeGo for two93.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:44UGA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:28UGA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:19UGA Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:133% → 3%
UGADrive 2PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2197% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:393% → 4%
Q1 11:29
4TH & 4
OWN 19
+29
3.6%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 46 yds , Dominick Blaylock returns for 29 yds to the GTech 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4FG4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:124% → 4%
Q1 8:32
4TH & 13
OWN 23
0
4.2%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD7 plays · 64 yds · 3:2896% → 96%
Q1 5:12
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+25
5.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Tyler Simmons for 25 yds to the GTech 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:295% → 5%
Q1 3:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
4.7%
James Graham run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 28 James Graham fumbled, forced by Richard LeCounte, recovered by GTech William Lay IIISimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
4.7%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dominick Blaylock at the Geo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD6 plays · 77 yds · 1:3995% → 96%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
5.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 8 yds to the Geo 31Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+19
4.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to James Cook for 19 yds to the GTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
3.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 20 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:244% → 4%
Q2 14:47
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
4.1%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11FUMBLE4 plays · 2 yds · 0:514% → 4%
Q2 13:19
4TH & 8
OWN 22
-16
4.2%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 45 yds , Dominick Blaylock returns for a loss of 16 yards to the Geo 17 Dominick Blaylock fumbled, recovered by GTech Tyler CookseySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12TD5 plays · 17 yds · 2:125% → 7%
Q2 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
6.7%
James Graham pass complete to Tyler Davis for 6 yds for a TD (Brenton King KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:007% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14FUMBLE5 plays · 22 yds · 1:5993% → 93%
Q2 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
6.6%
D'Andre Swift run for 7 yds to the Geo 42 D'Andre Swift fumbled, forced by Quez Jackson, recovered by GTech Justice DingleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15MISSED FG9 plays · 32 yds · 3:387% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16DOWNS15 plays · 55 yds · 3:1092% → 92%
Q2 2:09
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+8
8.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Brian Herrien for 8 yds to the Geo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+10
7.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Tyler Simmons for 10 yds to the GTech 37Similar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-8
7.2%
Jake Fromm sacked by Justice Dingle for a loss of 8 yards to the GTech 39Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 18
OPP 39
+14
7.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 14 yds to the GTech 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD5 plays · 53 yds · 1:0992% → 96%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
8.3%
Fromm, Jake pass incomplete to Pickens, George, PENALTY GATECH pass interference (Swilling, Tre) 15 yards to the GATECH17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
4.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Tyler Simmons for 17 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 1:455% → 6%
Q3 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+23
5.3%
James Graham pass complete to Malachi Carter for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19FUMBLE7 plays · 76 yds · 1:5895% → 96%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
5.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 20 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+47
4.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Eli Wolf for 47 yds to the GTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
4.5%
Fromm, Jake pass incomplete to Pickens, George, PENALTY GATECH pass interference (Walton, Zamari) 4 yards to the GATECH4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q3 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
4.5%
D'Andre Swift run for no gain to the GTech 4 D'Andre Swift fumbled, forced by David Curry, recovered by GTech Tre SwillingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:305% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21TD1 play · 41 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
1.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to George Pickens for 41 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:372% → 2%
UGADrive 23TD6 plays · 34 yds · 1:1299% → 99%
GTDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:201% → 1%
UGADrive 25TD13 plays · 90 yds · 6:3099% → 100%
Q4 13:22
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+26
0.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Matt Landers for 26 yds to the GTech 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+10
0.3%
Bennett, Stetson pass incomplete to Blaylock, Dominick, PENALTY GATECH pass interference (Campbell, Christian) 10 yards to the GATECH2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q4 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
Kenny McIntosh run for 2 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 26PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 1:090% → 0%
UGADrive 27PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q4 8:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
0.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Tommy Bush for 1 yd to the GTech 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 28PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q4 5:41
4TH & 9
OWN 3
0
0.1%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Dominick Blaylock at the Geo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 29TD4 plays · 4 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q4 3:06
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
0.1%
Jake Camarda punt for 44 yds , Ahmarean Brown returns for a loss of 7 yards, Brown fumbled, recovered by Geo Tyson Campbell for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 30END OF 4TH QUARTER7 plays · 40 yds · 3:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:32
Jake Fromm pass complete to Tyler Simmons for 17 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
-3.8
TD · Q3 7:44
Jake Fromm pass complete to George Pickens for 41 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
-3.6
TD · Q2 10:58
James Graham pass complete to Tyler Davis for 6 yds for a TD (Brenton King KICK)
+1.9