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ALA

Alabama 45 at Auburn 48

AUB
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:00 · Joseph Bulovas 30 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 188Pregame prior−0.5Home team on offense+5.4Garbage-time factor+3.7Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Blowout margin+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:06: Bo Nix pass complete to Sal Cannella for 14 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +13.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:31: Mac Jones pass intercepted for a TD Zakoby McClain return for 100 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +16.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:57: Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 12 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +19.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:44: Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 28 yds for a TD ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Jedrick Wills Jr.) to the Aub 8 (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +25.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:08: Shaun Shivers run for 11 yds for a TD (Bo Nix pass to Shedrick Jackson for Two-Point Conversion) — AUB win probability +30.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:57AUB 4th & 10 at ALA 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    42.9%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:27ALA 4th & 11 at AUB 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:28AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:05ALA 4th & 16 at ALA 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:26ALA 4th & 1 at AUB 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.5%−1.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:04AUB 4th & 11 at ALA 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:04ALA 4th & 11 at ALA 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−2.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:49AUB 4th & 4 at ALA 25, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.7%−0.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−9.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:19AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−2.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:25ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 11, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−4.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:49AUB 4th & 14 at ALA 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−4.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−12.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:13ALA 4th & 7 at AUB 37, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%
    40% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−3.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:00ALA 4th & 11 at AUB 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−11.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−25.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 2:07AUB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:16ALA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:36AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:12ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:06AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:33ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:31AUB Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:57ALA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:44ALA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:08AUB Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    62.6%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:5836% → 36%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
35.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 13 yds Anthony Schwartz fumbled, recovered by Aub Shedrick Jackson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
35.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 20 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
36.2%
D.J. Williams run for 3 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-3
36.3%
Bo Nix run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 42Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
36.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
36.3%
Bo Nix punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:2364% → 63%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
36.3%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
36.3%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
36.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 2 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
36.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 6 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+5
36.7%
AUBURN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
36.8%
Najee Harris run for 17 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
36.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alex Leatherwood) to the Aub 47Similar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+23
37.2%
Najee Harris run for 23 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
36.9%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-1
37.0%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 25Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 11
OPP 25
0
37.3%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Major TennisonSimilar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+43
37.5%
Joseph Bulovas 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4438% → 37%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
37.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Matthew Hill for 2 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
37.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
37.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
37.1%
Arryn Siposs punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 4:1562% → 60%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
37.6%
Najee Harris run for 7 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 3
OWN 24
-7
37.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 17Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+11
38.4%
Mac Jones run for 11 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-8
38.1%
Mac Jones sacked by Smoke Monday for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 18
OWN 20
+3
38.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 3 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 15
OWN 23
-5
38.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Jedrick Wills Jr.) to the Alab 18Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 20
OWN 18
+4
39.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 4 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q1 3:05
4TH & 16
OWN 22
+37
39.7%
Ty Perine punt for 47 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 37 yds to the Alab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:5340% → 44%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
40.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 15 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
40.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (Jared Mayden) to the Alab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
43.5%
Bo Nix run for 7 yds for a TD AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 8 (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:4758% → 63%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
41.6%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
42.0%
Jones, Mac pass complete to Smith, DeVonta for 4 yards to the ALABAMA40, PENALTY AUBURN offside 5 yards to the ALABAMA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+1
41.3%
Mac Jones run for 1 yd to the Alab 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+14
41.7%
Najee Harris run for 14 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
41.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for no gain to the Aub 41 lat. to Henry Ruggs III for 3 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
41.7%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+6
41.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 6 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+3
42.9%
Slade Bolden run for 3 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
41.6%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+10
41.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 10 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
41.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Aub 16Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+7
42.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 7 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+3
42.9%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Aub 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
37.3%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 3:0640% → 44%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to John Samuel ShenkerSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
40.1%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
39.0%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Williams, Seth, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Surtain II, Patrick) 15 yards to the AUBURN40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
41.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 11 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
42.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 11
50
0
41.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 11
50
+12
40.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to JaTarvious Whitlow for 12 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
42.7%
Bo Nix run for 14 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
43.6%
D.J. Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 27Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 13
OPP 27
0
42.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 13
OPP 27
+2
39.3%
D.J. Williams run for 2 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+43
43.9%
Anders Carlson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8INT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5459% → 45%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
41.4%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 6
OWN 16
-2
41.6%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 14Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+29
55.0%
Mac Jones pass intercepted for a TD Smoke Monday return for 29 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0645% → 45%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
44.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 12 yds to the Aub 37 JaTarvious Whitlow fumbled, forced by Xavier McKinney, recovered by Alab Christian HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 0:5061% → 69%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+33
38.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 33 yds to the Aub 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
37.8%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Aub 3Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
37.8%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q2 4:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 3 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5733% → 50%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.8%
D.J. Williams run for 5 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
33.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Matthew Hill for 5 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
33.1%
D.J. Williams run for no gain to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
32.6%
D.J. Williams run for 3 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+37
32.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 37 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
36.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Will Hastings for 11 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
50.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Sal Cannella for 14 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 0:1559% → 71%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
41.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 4 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+58
28.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 58 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:2733% → 41%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
33.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to JaTarvious WhitlowSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+14
32.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 14 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
35.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
34.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+17
32.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to JaTarvious Whitlow for 17 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+52
41.4%
Anders Carlson 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5162% → 60%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
37.8%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 11Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 11
OWN 11
0
38.2%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 11
OWN 11
0
39.3%
Mac Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:04
4TH & 11
OWN 11
+10
40.2%
Ty Perine punt for 41 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 10 yds to the Alab 42 Christian Tutt fumbled, forced by Jahleel Billingsley, recovered by AubSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16FG
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:0643% → 46%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
43.0%
D.J. Williams run for 5 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+1
43.1%
D.J. Williams run for 1 yd to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
42.5%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to JaTarvious WhitlowSimilar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+5
40.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Trevon Diggs) to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
44.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 7 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 3
OPP 24
-1
44.6%
Bo Nix run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
42.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Harold JoinerSimilar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
45.5%
Anders Carlson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17INT TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:4458% → 46%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
42.4%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
42.1%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+12
41.8%
Najee Harris run for 12 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
40.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 15 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
39.6%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+19
39.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 4 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (Jeremiah Dinson) to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
38.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 13 yds to the Aub 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
38.3%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Aub 8Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
38.3%
Mac Jones run for 2 yds to the Aub 6Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
39.8%
Jones, Mac pass incomplete to Smith, DeVonta, PENALTY AUBURN roughing passer (Davidson, Marlon) 3 yards to the AUBURN3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
38.4%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 4Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
38.4%
Jones, Mac pass incomplete to Billingsley, Jahleel, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Sherwood, Jamien) 2 yards to the AUBURN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 6:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+100
54.5%
Mac Jones pass intercepted for a TD Zakoby McClain return for 100 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:0540% → 62%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
59.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 1 yd to the Alab 38Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+24
59.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 24 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
57.2%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+26
57.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 26 yds to the Aub 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
38.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 12 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2645% → 44%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
45.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 17 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
48.9%
Harold Joiner run for 1 yd to the Aub 44Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
49.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
45.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
44.0%
Arryn Siposs punt for 46 yds, downed at the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4656% → 53%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
44.1%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 11Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
44.6%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
46.1%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
47.4%
Ty Perine punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the Aub 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:2850% → 56%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+36
49.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 36 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
51.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Alab 21Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
51.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 9
OPP 21
-15
49.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Seth Williams) to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 24
OPP 36
+10
45.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 10 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q3 0:49
4TH & 14
OPP 26
+44
55.5%
Anders Carlson 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 1:5144% → 75%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+33
55.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 33 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
52.2%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
51.7%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-5
52.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Deonte Brown) to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+14
54.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 14 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
51.2%
Harris, Najee rush for 4 yards to the AUBURN39, PENALTY AUBURN substitution infraction 5 yards to the AUBURN38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+10
50.8%
Najee Harris run for 10 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
24.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 28 yds for a TD ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Jedrick Wills Jr.) to the Aub 8 (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:2734% → 72%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
33.5%
Bo Nix run for 15 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
35.1%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+16
37.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 2 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Shane Lee) to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
38.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 2 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+3
38.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+9
38.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 9 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
40.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+12
41.0%
Bo Nix run for 12 yds to the Alab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
41.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for no gain to the Alab 16Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
41.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 5 yds to the Alab 11Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
72.4%
Shaun Shivers run for 11 yds for a TD (Bo Nix pass to Shedrick Jackson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24MISSED FG
19 plays · 52 yds · 6:0338% → 30%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
62.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Deonte Brown) to the Alab 32Similar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+28
64.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 28 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
58.3%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 1
OPP 31
-3
54.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-5
58.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Jedrick Wills Jr.) to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+2
60.1%
Mac Jones run for 2 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+18
65.6%
Mac Jones run for 18 yds to the Aub 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
59.4%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+5
59.6%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+1
61.7%
Mac Jones run for 1 yd to the Aub 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
60.0%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 10Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
62.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Alex Leatherwood) to the Aub 15Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+5
67.7%
Mac Jones run for 5 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
67.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to Mac Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 11Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+30
69.7%
Joseph Bulovas 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:5486% → 96%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
86.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 2 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
86.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Aub 23Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+3
88.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+5
90.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
92.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-3
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:08
Shaun Shivers run for 11 yds for a TD (Bo Nix pass to Shedrick Jackson for Two-Point Conversion)
+30.7
TD · Q4 13:44
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 28 yds for a TD ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Jedrick Wills Jr.) to the Aub 8 (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
-25.9
TD · Q3 4:57
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 12 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
-19.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com