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MISS

Ole Miss 20 at Mississippi State 21

MSST
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 28, 2019 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remainingBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:34: Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +15.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:24: Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +15.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:04: Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 2 yds for a TD OLE MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Elijah Moore) to the MisSt 18 (Luke Logan PAT MISSED) — MISS win probability +18.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:04: Luke Logan on-side kick recovered by MISSISSIPPI ST at the Miss 44 — MSST win probability +15.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:01: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 46 — MSST win probability +14.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:45MSST 4th & 17 at MSST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:05MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:26MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:03MISS 4th & 13 at MISS 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:34MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 45, up 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.4%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:51MISS 4th & 3 at MSST 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.0%−0.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−6.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:54MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:54MSST 4th & 4 at MISS 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    52.5%−3.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:50MSST 4th & 3 at MISS 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    54.3%−2.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:49MISS 4th & 5 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:45MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 40, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:30MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 22, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:06MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:50MISS 4th & 24 at MISS 14, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:42MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:22MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:15MISS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:34MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:24MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:04MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:5850% → 50%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
50.0%
Garrett Shrader run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+3
50.1%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
50.1%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q1 13:52
4TH & 12
OWN 29
-5
50.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Jaquarius Landrews) to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 17
OWN 24
0
50.1%
Tucker Day punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:2850% → 50%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
50.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 12 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
50.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 14 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
50.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+9
50.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 9 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
50.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the MisSt 31 Jerrion Ealy fumbled, forced by Erroll Thompson, recovered by MisSt Brian Cole IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5751% → 51%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
50.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Kylin Hill for 1 yd to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
50.7%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-2
50.9%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Benito Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
50.6%
Tucker Day punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3249% → 49%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
50.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+2
50.7%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-5
51.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Dontario Drummond) to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
51.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
51.5%
Mac Brown punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:2651% → 56%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
51.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 20 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
51.8%
Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 8
50
+23
52.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Farrod Green for 23 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
55.5%
Nick Gibson run for 27 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:3446% → 44%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
54.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
54.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
54.7%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-5
55.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 32Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+1
56.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
56.5%
Mac Brown punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Deddrick Thomas at the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 7:3656% → 69%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
56.2%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-10
56.5%
Shrader, Garrett pass complete to Guidry, Stephen for 13 yards to the MISSSTATE41, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Sharp, LaQuinston) 10 yards to the MISSSTATE18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 18
OWN 18
+6
56.4%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+16
56.2%
Garrett Shrader run for 16 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
58.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 8 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
58.5%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
58.9%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+7
59.3%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+28
59.2%
Kylin Hill run for 28 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
60.2%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+3
60.4%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Miss 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
60.8%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Miss 1Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.2%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.7%
Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 4:5634% → 41%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
66.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Miss 19Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+27
66.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 27 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
66.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-2
66.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 6
50
+12
67.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 12 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
67.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+31
68.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 31 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
65.5%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the MisSt 7Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
65.8%
Snoop Conner run for 5 yds to the MisSt 2Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:3063% → 63%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
62.8%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+13
62.6%
Kylin Hill run for 13 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
63.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Austin Williams for 9 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+3
65.2%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
65.7%
Garrett Shrader pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
64.9%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-1
63.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 3:34
4TH & 11
OWN 45
+4
62.6%
Tucker Day run for 4 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10TD
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:0340% → 56%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
60.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 19 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
59.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
59.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+6
62.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 6 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+11
62.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 11 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
59.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q2 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
59.7%
Ealy, Jerrion rush for no gain to the MISSSTATE1, PENALTY OLEMISS illegal formation 4 yards to the MISSSTATE5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
59.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Octavious CooleySimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
44.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
54.1%
Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5549% → 47%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
51.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
51.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
52.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q3 13:54
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
53.5%
Mac Brown punt for 37 yds, downed at the MisSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5458% → 56%
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
57.6%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+7
57.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 7 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-2
57.7%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
55.6%
Tucker Day punt for 29 yds , Elijah Moore returns for no gain to the Miss 17 Elijah Moore fumbled, recovered by Miss Elijah MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14FUMBLE
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:5249% → 49%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
51.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+4
50.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 4 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
51.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 13 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
49.1%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Jaden Crumedy for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+4
51.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+12
51.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 12 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
47.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 1 yd to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+14
47.9%
Snoop Conner run for 14 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
46.6%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-5
46.6%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Fabien Lovett for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 14
OPP 38
+17
51.0%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Chauncey Rivers for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 40 John Rhys Plumlee fumbled, forced by Chauncey Rivers, recovered by MisSt Willie Gay Jr. , return for 0 yards , return for 17 yds to the Miss 40 Willie Gay Jr. fumbled, recovered by MisSt Willie Gay Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:2560% → 77%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
59.6%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+4
58.2%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+5
59.0%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+20
56.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 20 yds to the Miss 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
61.0%
Garrett Shrader run for 4 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+4
61.1%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
77.0%
Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:2429% → 26%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
71.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
70.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
70.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 9 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+2
68.9%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
71.3%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+6
70.8%
Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 0:28
3RD & 2
OPP 47
-3
70.8%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 5
50
0
74.1%
Mac Brown punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 47 yds · 3:2682% → 85%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
81.5%
Nick Gibson run for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
50
0
83.9%
Nick Gibson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 10
50
+11
84.1%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 11 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
85.2%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
85.5%
Garrett Shrader run for 3 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
85.3%
Garrett Shrader run for no gain to the Miss 33 Garrett Shrader fumbled, forced by Keidron Smith, recovered by Miss Josiah CoatneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2322% → 20%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
78.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 32Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+5
79.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+3
79.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
80.0%
Mac Brown punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0784% → 85%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
84.3%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 10Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+2
84.4%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+10
84.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 10 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
84.8%
Tucker Day punt for 48 yds , Elijah Moore returns for no gain to the Miss 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20INT
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:1318% → 22%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
82.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 12 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+38
81.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 38 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
77.7%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
78.4%
Matt Corral pass intercepted Marcus Murphy return for 6 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:5688% → 94%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+16
88.3%
Kylin Hill run for 16 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
89.5%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+8
89.8%
Kylin Hill run for 8 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
92.7%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
93.6%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-8
94.0%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Jacquez Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+8
93.8%
Tucker Day punt for 51 yds , Elijah Moore returns for 8 yds to the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
20 plays · 82 yds · 1:5710% → 35%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
90.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 9 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+1
89.2%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
90.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
90.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jerrion EalySimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-5
91.4%
Corral, Matt pass complete to Sanders, Braylon for 20 yards to the OLEMISS48, PENALTY OLEMISS ineligible downfield on pass (Brown, Ben) 5 yards to the OLEMISS23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 15
OWN 23
-9
91.0%
Matt Corral sacked by Chauncey Rivers and Kobe Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 24
OWN 14
+57
92.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 57 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
84.1%
Corral, Matt pass incomplete to Mingo, Jonathan, PENALTY MISSSTATE roughing passer (Cole II, Brian) 14 yards to the MISSSTATE15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
83.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
83.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+6
87.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 6 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+5
87.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Marquiss Spencer) to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
83.9%
Corral, Matt pass incomplete to Pellerin, Jason, PENALTY OLEMISS ineligible downfield on pass (Givens, Alex) 5 yards to the MISSSTATE9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
83.9%
Corral, Matt pass incomplete to Moore, Elijah (TEAM), PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Cole II, Brian) 7 yards to the MISSSTATE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS, QB hurry by TEAM, QB hit by TEAM.Similar
Q4 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
84.0%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the MisSt 2Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
84.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jason PellerinSimilar
Q4 0:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 2 yds for a TD OLE MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Elijah Moore) to the MisSt 18 (Luke Logan PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
94.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:04
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 2 yds for a TD OLE MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Elijah Moore) to the MisSt 18 (Luke Logan PAT MISSED)
-18.6
TD · Q3 3:24
Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
+15.9
TD · Q2 0:34
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)
-15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com