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TENN

Tennessee 24 at Missouri 20

MIZ
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Tucker McCann punt for 46 yds , Marquez Callaway returns for 14 yds to the Tenn 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOne-score game
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Home team on offense−6.4Garbage-time factor−2.9Score differential−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5One-score game−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:32: Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 16 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +10.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Brent Cimaglia 27 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +6.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:40: Micah Wilson pass complete to Tyler Badie for 15 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +17.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:22: Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 17 yds for a TD MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +18.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 8:27: Tucker McCann 33 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +6.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 9 of 11TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:50MIZ 4th & 2 at TENN 12, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:13TENN 4th & 7 at MIZ 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:13MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.0%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:13MIZ 4th & 12 at MIZ 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:31TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:03MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:32MIZ 4th & 18 at MIZ 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−2.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:59TENN 4th & 10 at MIZ 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:59MIZ 4th & 1 at TENN 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.5%−3.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−13.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:40TENN 4th & 1 at MIZ 44, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    40.8%−5.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%−3.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:47MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−4.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00MIZ 4th & 12 at MIZ 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−4.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:27MIZ 4th & 7 at TENN 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−2.0
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−13.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:36TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−1.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:06MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 38, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TENN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 12:49TENN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:31MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:32TENN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:40MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:22TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
49.2%
Guarantano,J. pass incomplete to Palmer,J., PENALTY MU pass interference (Holmes, C.) 15 yards to the UT40, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
49.2%
Tim Jordan run for 1 yd to the Tenn 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-1
49.2%
Jauan Jennings run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
49.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+16
49.2%
Paxton Brooks punt for 45 yds , Richaud Floyd returns for 16 yds to the Misso 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:2850% → 51%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
49.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 9 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 1
OWN 40
0
49.7%
Kelly Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
49.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
49.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+23
49.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Barrett Banister for 23 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
49.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Barrett Banister for 6 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+7
49.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Daniel Parker Jr. for 7 yds to the Tenn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
49.8%
Larry Rountree III run for no gain to the Tenn 20Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
49.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Tenn 17Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+5
49.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Daniel Parker Jr. for 5 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+30
51.2%
Tucker McCann 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:3749% → 48%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
51.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tim Jordan for 22 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
50.5%
Tim Jordan run for 6 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+27
50.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 27 yds to the Misso 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
50.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
50.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+3
50.5%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 3 yds to the Misso 17Similar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
51.6%
Brent Cimaglia 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
51.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Niko Hea for 16 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
51.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
52.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+4
51.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
51.8%
Jamal Brooks run for 2 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-6
52.4%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 16
OWN 41
0
51.7%
Kelly Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 16
OWN 41
+4
51.3%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
51.1%
Tucker McCann punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 4:3447% → 53%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
52.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for no gain to the Tenn 14Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+11
52.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 11 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+51
52.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 51 yds to the Misso 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
50.7%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
51.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+16
51.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 16 yds to the Misso 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
51.0%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 4 yds to the Misso 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
51.0%
Jauan Jennings run for 1 yd to the Misso 1Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.8%
Quavaris Crouch run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1849% → 57%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
48.6%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
49.7%
Kelly Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
48.3%
Tyler Badie run for 14 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+33
50.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jalen Knox for 33 yds to the Tenn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
51.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jalen Knox for no gain to the Tenn 22Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
51.4%
Tyler Badie run for 7 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+8
50.5%
Kelly Bryant run for 8 yds to the Tenn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
51.4%
Kelly Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
57.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tyler Badie for 7 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Dominick Wood-AndersonSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
54.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
55.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan Jennings, broken up by Ronnell PerkinsSimilar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
56.1%
Paxton Brooks punt for 36 yds, downed at the Misso 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
55.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Misso 40Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+2
55.4%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
54.7%
Kelly Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:03
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
53.7%
Tucker McCann punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:0645% → 59%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
55.3%
Tim Jordan run for 6 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
54.4%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 26Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
55.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 6 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
55.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 8 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
53.9%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 35Similar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+22
55.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 22 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
52.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Tim JordanSimilar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-8
52.9%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Tenn 41 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Tenn 49Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 18
OWN 49
0
54.4%
Brian Maurer pass incomplete to Marquez Callaway, broken up by Nick BoltonSimilar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 18
OWN 49
+20
55.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 20 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
52.1%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
52.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+9
53.2%
Guarantano,J. pass incomplete to Jennings,J., PENALTY MU pass interference (Holmes, C.) 9 yards to the MU21, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
51.9%
Tim Jordan run for 5 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
51.9%
Tim Jordan run for no gain to the Misso 16Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+16
41.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 16 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.1%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Tyler Badie, broken up by Matthew ButlerSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
45.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Barrett Banister for 8 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
46.9%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
46.8%
Kelly Bryant run for 2 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
48.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Barrett Banister for 4 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-14
47.7%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Henry To'o To'o and Alontae Taylor for a loss of 14 yards to the Misso 29 MISSOURI Penalty, intentional grounding (Kelly Bryant) to the Misso 29Similar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 18
OWN 29
0
44.1%
Tucker McCann punt for 47 yds, downed at the Tenn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11FG
8 plays · 66 yds · 0:3855% → 68%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
45.2%
Tim Jordan run for 10 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
44.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 24 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
41.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 20 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
41.0%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 12 yds to the Misso 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
32.4%
Brent Cimaglia 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
38.8%
Larry Rountree III run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+10
38.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 10 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
38.7%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Jalen KnoxSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+14
38.1%
Tucker McCann punt for 46 yds , Marquez Callaway returns for 14 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13MISSED FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:3265% → 64%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
35.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 16 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
34.0%
Tim Jordan run for 17 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
33.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 0
0
33.6%
PENALTY MU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY UT unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
33.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
34.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
35.8%
Brent Cimaglia 48 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by null Devin Nicholson return for 14 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:1941% → 60%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
41.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Daniel Parker Jr. for 7 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+7
42.8%
Kelly Bryant run for 7 yds to the Tenn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
42.8%
Dawson Downing run for 1 yd to the Tenn 26Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
42.8%
Kelly Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+8
41.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Niko Hea for 8 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+2
39.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
42.8%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Tenn 15Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
59.9%
Micah Wilson pass complete to Tyler Badie for 15 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.4%
Ty Chandler run for 7 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
49.3%
Guarantano,J. pass incomplete to Callaway,M., PENALTY MU pass interference (Holmes, C.) 15 yards to the UT47, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
48.0%
Tim Jordan run for 1 yd to the Tenn 48Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+3
48.3%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 3 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-15
48.0%
Guarantano,J. pass complete to Jennings,J. for 8 yards to the MU41 (Bledsoe, J.), PENALTY UT pass interference (Callaway,M.) 15 yards to the UT36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 21
OWN 36
+20
52.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 20 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
49.8%
Paxton Brooks punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0055% → 52%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
55.0%
TENNESSEE Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Misso 25Similar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 5
OWN 25
+1
56.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+11
55.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 11 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
56.4%
Bryant, Kelly pass incomplete to Nance, Jonathan, PENALTY MU personal foul (Nance, Jonathan) 15 yards to the MU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 25
OWN 22
0
54.8%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Tyler BadieSimilar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 25
OWN 22
+6
54.6%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 19
OWN 28
+5
52.9%
Kelly Bryant run for 5 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
52.4%
Tucker McCann punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:0349% → 74%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
51.2%
Ty Chandler run for 11 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
50.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan Jennings, broken up by Joshuah BledsoeSimilar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+11
50.8%
Guarantano,J. pass incomplete to Palmer,J., PENALTY MU pass interference (Sparks, Adam) 11 yards to the UT45, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
47.8%
Tim Jordan run for 2 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
47.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan Jennings, broken up by Joshuah BledsoeSimilar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+31
48.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 31 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
45.0%
Tim Jordan run for 5 yds to the Misso 17Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
45.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q3 0:22
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+17
26.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 17 yds for a TD MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:2231% → 28%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Barrett Banister for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
31.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-9
30.6%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Daniel Bituli for a loss of 9 yards to the Misso 23Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
28.0%
Tucker McCann punt for 49 yds , Marquez Callaway returns for no gain to the Tenn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 44 yds · 0:0075% → 78%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
25.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez Callaway, broken up by Christian HolmesSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+33
26.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 33 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
22.7%
Tim Jordan run for 7 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+4
22.0%
Tim Jordan run for 4 yds to the Misso 28 Tim Jordan fumbled, forced by Devin Nicholson, recovered by Misso Kobie WhitesideSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 4:0229% → 40%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
29.4%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Daniel Parker Jr.Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+21
28.9%
Kelly Bryant run for 6 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
32.8%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (Daniel Parker Jr.) to the Misso 44Similar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+6
30.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Daniel Parker Jr. for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 9
50
+21
33.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Kam Scott for 21 yds to the Tenn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
36.1%
Kelly Bryant run for 11 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
36.1%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 19Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
36.0%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Daniel Parker Jr., broken up by Nigel WarriorSimilar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+4
33.5%
Kelly Bryant run for 4 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
39.5%
Tucker McCann 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:4869% → 71%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
30.8%
Tim Jordan run for 3 yds to the Tenn 11Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+18
30.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 18 yds to the Tenn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
29.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 4 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-11
26.4%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Kobie Whiteside and Jordan Elliott for a loss of 11 yards to the Tenn 22Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+12
29.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 12 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
28.9%
Paxton Brooks punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
37.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
37.0%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Daniel Parker Jr., broken up by Nigel WarriorSimilar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+5
35.6%
Bryant, Kelly sacked for loss of 10 yards to the MU25 (Taylor,D.), PENALTY UT offside (Bituli,D.) 5 yards to the MU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-2
39.0%
Kelly Bryant run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 38Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
35.7%
Tucker McCann punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23END OF GAME
11 plays · 30 yds · 2:3577% → 94%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
22.9%
Jauan Jennings run for 1 yd to the Tenn 14Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
23.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Dominick Wood-Anderson, broken up by Nick BoltonSimilar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+9
24.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 9 yds to the Tenn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
22.3%
Eric Gray run for 3 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+2
16.4%
Eric Gray run for 2 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+12
17.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 12 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
14.7%
Tim Jordan run for 7 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-2
5.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-2
6.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:22
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 17 yds for a TD MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
-18.6
TD · Q3 8:40
Micah Wilson pass complete to Tyler Badie for 15 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
+17.1
TD · Q2 1:32
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 16 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
-10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com