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ACU

Abilene Christian 7 at Mississippi State 45

MSST
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadACU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreACU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Tucker Day punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AblCh 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Pregame prior+48.2Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:00: Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 11 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +0.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:13: Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for 88 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:07: Luke Anthony pass complete to Tracy James for 4 yds for a TD (Blair Zepeda KICK) — ACU win probability +2.0 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:39: Tommy Stevens run for 30 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:16: Garrett Shrader pass complete to Austin Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ACU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00MSST 4th & 11 at ACU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:57ACU 4th & 23 at ACU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:34MSST 4th & 10 at ACU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:17ACU 4th & 9 at ACU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:42ACU 4th & 9 at ACU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:55ACU 4th & 7 at ACU 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:19MSST 4th & 17 at MSST 2, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:31ACU 4th & 2 at MSST 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:34MSST 4th & 6 at ACU 39, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%
    36% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00ACU 4th & 10 at MSST 10, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:05ACU 4th & 7 at MSST 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:05ACU 4th & 24 at MSST 34, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:11MSST 4th & 8 at ACU 22, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:02ACU 4th & 3 at ACU 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:16ACU 4th & 5 at ACU 30, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ACU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:13MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:00MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:13MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:07ACU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:39MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:16MSST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:48MSST Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
98.2%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+19
98.2%
Kylin Hill run for 19 yds to the AblCh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.2%
Tommy Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
98.2%
Kylin Hill run for 11 yds to the AblCh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
98.2%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the AblCh 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+1
98.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 1 yd to the AblCh 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 38
0
98.2%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas, broken up by Brandon RichmondSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
98.2%
Tucker Day punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AblCh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
97.8%
Sema'J Davis run for 10 yds to the AblCh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
97.8%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
97.8%
Sema'J Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-13
97.8%
Luke Anthony sacked by Chauncey Rivers for a loss of 13 yards to the AblCh 9Similar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 23
OWN 9
0
97.8%
Simon Laryea punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AblCh 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
97.7%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the AblCh 46Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+13
97.7%
Tommy Stevens run for 13 yds to the AblCh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.7%
Tommy Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
97.7%
Tommy Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
97.7%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete, broken up by Brandon RichmondSimilar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 10
OPP 33
0
97.6%
Tucker Day punt for 30 yds, downed at the AblCh 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
97.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 2Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 11
OWN 2
0
97.5%
Tracy James run for no gain to the AblCh 2Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 11
OWN 2
+2
97.5%
Tracy James run for 2 yds to the AblCh 4Similar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 9
OWN 4
0
97.5%
Simon Laryea punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AblCh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 2:0997% → 97%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
97.2%
Nick Gibson run for 13 yds to the AblCh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
97.2%
Nick Gibson run for 9 yds to the AblCh 13Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+7
97.2%
Tommy Stevens run for 7 yds to the AblCh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
97.2%
Nick Gibson run for 2 yds to the AblCh 4Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.3%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 6PUNT
13 plays · 22 yds · 2:253% → 3%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
97.2%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 4 yds to the AblCh 19Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+6
97.2%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Justus Lee for 6 yds to the AblCh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.2%
Sema'J Davis run for 2 yds to the AblCh 27Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
96.9%
Tyrese White run for 1 yd to the AblCh 28Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
96.9%
Anthony,L. pass incomplete to Lee,J., QB hurry by Kobe Jones, PENALTY MS offside defense (M. Spencer) 5 yards to the ACU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
96.8%
Sema'J Davis run for 3 yds to the AblCh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
96.8%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
96.8%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Tracy JamesSimilar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+1
96.9%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 1 yd to the AblCh 37Similar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
96.9%
Simon Laryea punt for 38 yds, downed at the MisSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5297% → 97%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Tommy Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.6%
Kylin Hill run for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+22
96.6%
Kylin Hill run for 22 yds to the AblCh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
96.7%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Dontea Jones for 5 yds to the AblCh 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+1
96.7%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the AblCh 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+10
96.6%
Kylin Hill run for 10 yds to the AblCh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
96.7%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
96.7%
Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the AblCh 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+13
96.6%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for 13 yds to the AblCh 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
97.3%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 11 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
97.0%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Josh Fink for 18 yds to the AblCh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
96.9%
Tracy James run for 3 yds to the AblCh 36Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
96.9%
Sema'J Davis pass incomplete to Josh FinkSimilar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
97.0%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Josh FinkSimilar
Q2 11:55
4TH & 7
OWN 36
-6
97.1%
Simon Laryea punt for 46 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
1 play · 88 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+88
98.4%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for 88 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 10INT
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.3%
Tyrese White run for 10 yds to the AblCh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
98.2%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Branden Hohenstein for 18 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
98.1%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Josh Fink for 8 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-4
98.1%
Kobe Clark run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 6
OPP 43
-5
98.2%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (Josh Fink) to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+21
98.2%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Tracy James for 21 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
98.0%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Kobe Clark, broken up by Tim WashingtonSimilar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+21
98.1%
Sema'J Davis pass intercepted Jaquarius Landrews return for 13 yds to the MisSt 14 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, illegal block (Tim Washington) to the MisSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
98.6%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 7Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 12
OWN 7
-5
98.6%
Tommy Stevens sacked by Jeremiah Chambers and Temisan Kuyatsemi for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 2Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 17
OWN 2
0
98.6%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 17
OWN 2
0
98.5%
Tucker Day punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kobe Clark at the MisSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:242% → 4%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
98.0%
Tyrese White run for 3 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
98.0%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 6 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-1
98.0%
Sema'J Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+3
98.0%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 3 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+30
98.0%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Branden Hohenstein for 30 yds to the MisSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
97.8%
Kobe Clark run for 2 yds to the MisSt 4Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
97.8%
Tracy James pass incomplete to Kobe ClarkSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Tracy James for 4 yds for a TD (Blair Zepeda KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 36 yds · 1:2496% → 97%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.4%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
96.4%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 6 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
96.5%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 8 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+12
96.8%
Tommy Stevens run for 12 yds to the AblCh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
96.8%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
96.8%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Kylin HillSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+4
96.7%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Dontea Jones for 4 yds to the AblCh 39Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
96.8%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas, broken up by Brandon RichmondSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
96.5%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the AblCh 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 65 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+52
96.1%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Branden Hohenstein for 52 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
95.3%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 7 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+8
95.3%
Sema'J Davis run for 8 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-7
95.3%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Tracy James for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
-5
95.6%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (Kobe Clark) to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+4
95.6%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 4 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+6
95.9%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 6 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
0
95.9%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Branden Hohenstein, broken up by Shawn Preston Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 2:2796% → 99%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
96.0%
Tommy Stevens run for 2 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+22
96.0%
Kylin Hill run for 22 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
96.1%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for 11 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
96.3%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the AblCh 46Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+16
96.3%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 16 yds to the AblCh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
98.8%
Tommy Stevens run for 30 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 17PUNT
17 plays · 41 yds · 4:342% → 1%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.5%
Sema'J Davis run for 3 yds to the AblCh 28Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
98.5%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Kobe ClarkSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
98.5%
Anthony,L. pass incomplete to Harmon,B. (Martin Emerson), PENALTY MS pass interference (Martin Emerson) 14 yards to the ACU42, 1ST DOWN ACU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
98.4%
Kobe Clark run for 4 yds to the AblCh 46Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
98.4%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Justus Lee for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 2
50
+10
98.4%
Kobe Clark run for 10 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
98.4%
Sema'J Davis run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37 ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, helping runner (Tanner Parker) to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 12
OPP 42
-13
98.4%
Luke Anthony sacked by Nathan Pickering for a loss of 13 yards to the MISSSTATE 45 ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, intentional grounding (Luke Anthony) to the AblCh 45Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 25
OWN 45
+15
98.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Branden Hohenstein for 15 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+3
98.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 3 yds Kobe Clark fumbled, forced by Korey Charles, recovered by AblChSimilar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+17
98.7%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 17 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
98.5%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Tracy JamesSimilar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
98.5%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Javorian MillerSimilar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-14
98.7%
Luke Anthony sacked by Kobe Jones and Aaron Odom for a loss of 14 yards to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 24
OPP 34
0
98.8%
Simon Laryea punt for 26 yds, downed at the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:0999% → 99%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
99.0%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-2
99.0%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 6Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 12
OWN 6
-2
99.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Stewart Reese) to the MisSt 4Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 14
OWN 4
+29
99.0%
Tommy Stevens run for 29 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
99.0%
Kylin Hill run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
50
-3
99.1%
Kylin Hill run for 8 yds to the MISSSTATE 42 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Cameron Gardner) to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 13
OWN 47
+6
99.1%
Nick Gibson run for 6 yds to the AblCh 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+6
99.3%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for 6 yds to the AblCh 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+17
99.3%
Kylin Hill run for 17 yds to the AblCh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.3%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
99.3%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Farrod Green, broken up by Jack GibbensSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+2
99.3%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the AblCh 22Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
99.4%
Jace Christmann 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 19INT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.3%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Kobe ClarkSimilar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
99.3%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Josh FinkSimilar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.3%
Anthony,L. pass incomplete to Clark,K. (J. Landrews), PENALTY MS offside defense (Chauncey Rivers) 5 yards to the ACU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+2
99.3%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Tracy James for 2 yds to the AblCh 37Similar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+14
99.3%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Tracy James for 14 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
99.3%
Tyrese White run for 13 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
99.3%
Luke Anthony pass intercepted Fred Peters return for 6 yds to the MisSt 30 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, illegal block (Leo Lewis) to the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:2699% → 100%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.4%
Garrett Shrader run for 4 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
99.4%
Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+7
99.4%
Nick Gibson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 35 Nick Gibson fumbled, forced by Adonis Davis, recovered by MisSt Cameron Gardner for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Austin Williams for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.4%
Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+8
99.4%
Garrett Shrader run for 8 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
99.5%
Garrett Shrader run for 12 yds to the AblCh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
99.5%
Garrett Shrader run for 16 yds to the AblCh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
99.5%
Nick Gibson run for 8 yds to the AblCh 19Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+13
99.5%
Lee Witherspoon run for 13 yds to the AblCh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
100.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Austin Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Tyrese White run for 1 yd to the AblCh 26Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
100.0%
Luke Anthony run for 4 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Simon Laryea punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Deddrick Thomas at the MisSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:51100% → 100%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+34
100.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 34 yds to the AblCh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
100.0%
Garrett Shrader run for 8 yds to the AblCh 20 for a 1ST down ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, personal foul (Reynel Previlon) to the AblCh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
100.0%
Garrett Shrader run for 10 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Luke Anthony run for 3 yds to the AblCh 28Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
100.0%
Sema'J Davis run for 4 yds to the AblCh 32Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
100.0%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kobe Clark for 6 yds to the AblCh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
100.0%
Sema'J Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 37Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+14
100.0%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Josh Fink for 14 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-11
100.0%
Luke Anthony sacked by Fred Peters for a loss of 11 yards to the AblCh 37 Luke Anthony fumbled, recovered by AblCh Tanner Parker , return for 0 yards , return for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:39
Tommy Stevens run for 30 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q2 2:07
Luke Anthony pass complete to Tracy James for 4 yds for a TD (Blair Zepeda KICK)
-2
TD · Q2 10:13
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for 88 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com