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ARK

Arkansas 20 at LSU 56

LSU
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.3LSU 96.9%Connor Limpert 47 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 7 · Q2 9:43
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:43 · Connor Limpert 47 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior+42.7Home team on offense+0.4Score differential−0.3Blowout margin+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 9:43: Connor Limpert 47 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +0.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 7:38: Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:17: Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 27 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:14: Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 10 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:48: Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 50 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 2ARK made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 8:41ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:10LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 14, up 7
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:39ARK 4th & 6 at LSU 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:43ARK 4th & 14 at LSU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:17ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 25, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:51ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 34, down 15
    Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:00ARK 4th & 11 at LSU 27, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:31ARK 4th & 16 at ARK 48, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:56ARK 4th & 16 at ARK 10, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:12ARK 4th & 18 at midfield, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:37ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 25, down 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:20ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 34, down 50
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:58LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 47, up 36
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:33LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:38LSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:17LSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:14LSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:48LSU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:47LSU Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:46LSU Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:27LSU Touchdown, up 49 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:35ARK Touchdown, down 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:56ARK Touchdown, down 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2299% → 99%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.2%
Joe Burrow run for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
99.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
99.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
50
0
99.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr., broken up by Kamren CurlSimilar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
50
+13
99.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 13 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
99.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 37 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:491% → 1%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
99.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
99.0%
K.J. Jefferson pass complete to Mike Woods for 6 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.0%
K.J. Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-3
99.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+10
98.9%
K.J. Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
98.9%
Sam Loy punt for 48 yds, downed at the LSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
98.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 9Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+5
98.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 5 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
98.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
98.8%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:261% → 2%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.7%
K.J. Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
98.7%
K.J. Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+15
98.7%
Jefferson, K.J. pass complete to Burks, Treylon for no gain to the ARKANSAS44, PENALTY LSU roughing passer (Brooks, Marcel) 15 yards to the LSU41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+31
98.6%
K.J. Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 31 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
98.5%
K.J. Jefferson run for 1 yd to the LSU 9Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.4%
K.J. Jefferson pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q1 4:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
98.5%
K.J. Jefferson run for 3 yds to the LSU 6Similar
Q1 3:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
98.4%
Connor Limpert 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 3:1198% → 98%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
98.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 9 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
98.3%
Joe Burrow run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 15
OWN 30
-10
98.1%
Burrow, Joe rush for 10 yards to the LSU40, PENALTY LSU holding (Magee, Adrian) 10 yards to the LSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 25
OWN 20
+6
98.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 6 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 0:24
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+9
97.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 9 yds to the LSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6FG
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:522% → 3%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-8
97.8%
K.J. Jefferson pass complete to K.J. Jefferson for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 18
OWN 31
+2
97.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+29
97.8%
K.J. Jefferson pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 29 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
97.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+7
97.4%
Treylon Burks run for 7 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+4
97.3%
K.J. Jefferson run for 4 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
97.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-5
96.9%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 14
OPP 29
0
97.2%
K.J. Jefferson pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+47
96.9%
Connor Limpert 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0297% → 98%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
97.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 20 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
97.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 6 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+8
97.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 8 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+30
97.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 30 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
97.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 12Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+10
97.0%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Chase, Ja'Marr, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Foucha, Joe) 10 yards to the ARKANSAS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:132% → 3%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
97.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 6 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
97.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-2
97.5%
K.J. Jefferson pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Sam Loy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:5897% → 98%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
97.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 10 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
97.3%
Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 8
50
+11
97.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 11 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
97.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 12 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kamren Curl) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
98.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 27 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:242% → 2%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
K.J. Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.9%
K.J. Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
97.9%
K.J. Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
97.7%
Sam Loy punt for 57 yds, downed at the LSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 1:3198% → 99%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
98.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 15 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joe Foucha) to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
98.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Joe Foucha) to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
98.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 22 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
98.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 4 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+7
98.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 7 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
98.2%
Joe Burrow run for 22 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.1%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 10 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:081% → 1%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
50
0
99.2%
K.J. Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
50
0
99.3%
K.J. Jefferson pass incomplete to Grayson GunterSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 10
50
0
99.3%
K.J. Jefferson pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13MISSED FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:551% → 1%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 11 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+38
98.9%
K.J. Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 38 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kary Vincent Jr.) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
98.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 14
OPP 30
-7
98.8%
K.J. Jefferson sacked by JaCoby Stevens for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 37Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 21
OPP 37
+10
99.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for 10 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+45
99.0%
Connor Limpert 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 31 yds · 0:3299% → 99%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
99.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 13 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
99.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 18 yds Ja'Marr Chase fumbled, recovered by Ark Kamren CurlSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:381% → 1%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
98.9%
K.J. Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 11 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
98.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 49Similar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+2
99.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 13
OPP 49
-11
98.9%
K.J. Jefferson sacked by JaCoby Stevens for a loss of 11 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 24
OWN 40
+8
99.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 8 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 16
OWN 48
0
99.0%
Sam Loy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 85 yds · 0:3299% → 100%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+35
99.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 35 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
50
+50
99.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 50 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.8%
K.J. Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
99.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-8
99.8%
K.J. Jefferson sacked by JaCoby Stevens for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 10Similar
Q3 5:56
4TH & 16
OWN 10
+1
99.9%
Sam Loy punt for 32 yds for a 1ST down , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for 1 yd to the Ark 26 Derek Stingley Jr. fumbled, recovered by LSU ARKANSAS Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
1 play · 26 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 26 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:330% → 0%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+17
99.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Mike Woods for 17 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Chase HarrellSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+14
99.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to John David White for 14 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
99.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 13
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Koilan JacksonSimilar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 13
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q3 3:20
4TH & 13
OPP 45
-5
99.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Simeon Blair) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 18
50
0
99.9%
Sam Loy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20TD
1 play · 89 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+89
99.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 89 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:570% → 0%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Grayson GunterSimilar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Devwah WhaleySimilar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Sam Loy punt for 42 yds, downed at the LSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+16
99.9%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Racey McMath for 16 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to John Emery Jr.Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
99.9%
Myles Brennan pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 9 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+39
99.9%
John Emery Jr. run for 39 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:450% → 0%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
A'Montae Spivey run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
100.0%
A'Montae Spivey run for 7 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
100.0%
A'Montae Spivey run for 1 yd to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
100.0%
A'Montae Spivey run for 1 yd to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Koilan JacksonSimilar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
100.0%
T.J. Hammonds run for 8 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
100.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Hudson Henry for 3 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+30
100.0%
Jack Lindsey run for 30 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
100.0%
Jack Lindsey pass complete to Mike Woods for 24 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24TD
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
100.0%
Jack Lindsey run for 1 yd to the LSU 10Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+8
100.0%
Lindsey, Jack pass incomplete to Kern, Blake, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Stevens, JaCoby) 8 yards to the LSU2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q4 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
100.0%
Chris Curry run for 1 yd to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Myles Brennan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+4
100.0%
Myles Brennan run for 4 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
100.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Treylon Burks at the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:370% → 0%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
100.0%
T.J. Hammonds run for 2 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+15
100.0%
T.J. Hammonds run for 15 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
100.0%
T.J. Hammonds run for 1 yd to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
100.0%
T.J. Hammonds run for no gain to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+14
100.0%
Jack Lindsey pass complete to Hudson Henry for 14 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
100.0%
Jack Lindsey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+15
100.0%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kary Vincent Jr.) to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
100.0%
Jack Lindsey pass complete to John David White for 13 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
100.0%
Jack Lindsey pass incomplete to Koilan JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:17
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 27 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)
+1
TD · Q2 0:14
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 10 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)
+1
TD · Q3 7:48
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 50 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)
+0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com