2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadWCU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreWCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:44 · Joseph Bulovas 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:29: Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:36: Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 12 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 11:44ALA 4th & 7 at WCU 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%87% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 1:11WCU 4th & 11 at midfield, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 14:11ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 5, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q2 9:16WCU 4th & 2 at WCU 33, down 24Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 4:18WCU 4th & 25 at WCU 25, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 1:43WCU 4th & 14 at WCU 21, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q2 0:00WCU 4th & 6 at WCU 24, down 38Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call-0.1%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%average punt
- Q3 8:12WCU 4th & 8 at WCU 38, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:56WCU 4th & 7 at ALA 21, down 59Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%74% to makePunt-0.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 6:29WCU 4th & 3 at WCU 32, down 63Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 1:00ALA 4th & 3 at WCU 34, up 63Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%53% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.147% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 9:00ALA Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:33ALA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:29ALA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:36ALA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:08ALA Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:41ALA Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:32ALA Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:02ALA Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:13ALA Touchdown, up 62 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartALADrive 1FG10 plays · 46 yds · 3:06100% → 100%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 8 yds to the WCaro 49Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+16
99.9%
Jones, Mac pass incomplete to Smith, DeVonta, PENALTY WESTCARLNA pass interference (White, JerMichael) 16 yards to the WESTCARLNA24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 10 yds to the WCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 2INT5 plays · 31 yds · 1:520% → 0%
ALADrive 3TD3 plays · 79 yds · 0:33100% → 100%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
99.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 57 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 4INT TD7 plays · 43 yds · 3:120% → 0%
Q1 8:12
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+13
99.8%
Tyrie Adams run for a loss of 2 yards to the WCaro 31 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Justin Eboigbe) to the WCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
99.8%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Connell Young for 10 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+81
99.8%
Tyrie Adams pass intercepted for a TD Xavier McKinney return for 81 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 4:110% → 0%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.8%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Owen Cosenke for 9 yds to the WCaro 34Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+17
99.8%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Owen Cosenke for 17 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-8
99.7%
Tyrie Adams sacked by Anfernee Jennings for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 7FUMBLE3 plays · 1 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q2 13:13
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
99.7%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Tyrie Adams for no gain Tyrie Adams fumbled, forced by Xavier McKinney, recovered by Alab Patrick Surtain IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD6 plays · 63 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+44
99.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 44 yds to the WCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-8
99.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the WCaro 17 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Landon Dickerson) to the WCaro 27Similar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 18
OPP 27
+17
99.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie for 17 yds to the WCaro 10Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:060% → 0%
Q2 9:16
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.7%
Brandon Dickerson punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD4 plays · 65 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q2 8:31
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+14
99.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 14 yds to the WCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+37
99.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 37 yds to the WCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 12 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 0 yds · 3:090% → 0%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.8%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Owen Cosenke for 15 yds to the WCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-9
99.9%
Tyrie Adams sacked by Christian Barmore and Anfernee Jennings for a loss of 9 yards to the WCaro 30Similar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 25
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Brandon Dickerson punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD1 play · 54 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 54 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 2:160% → 0%
ALADrive 14FUMBLE1 play · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds Brian Robinson Jr. fumbled, recovered by WCaro Ty HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 15DOWNS4 plays · 3 yds · 1:300% → 0%
WCUDrive 16INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Tyrie Adams pass intercepted Jared Mayden return for 9 yds to the WCaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD3 plays · 27 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+22
99.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 22 yds to the WCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 18INT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:090% → 0%
ALADrive 19TD4 plays · 32 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q3 10:32
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 15 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
100.0%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Jaylin Young for 11 yds to the WCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+18
100.0%
Brandon Dickerson punt for 38 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 18 yds to the ALABAMA 44 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Ale Kaho) to the Alab 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD5 plays · 73 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q3 7:23
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+20
99.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 20 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 22FG11 plays · 54 yds · 5:550% → 0%
ALADrive 23TD11 plays · 63 yds · 6:27100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 6:29
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Brandon Dickerson punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER11 plays · 34 yds · 6:06100% → 100%
Q4 5:15
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+4
100.0%
De'Marquise Lockridge run for 4 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:29
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q2 7:36
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 12 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+0.1