2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreSC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:03 · Joseph Charlton punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 47 , Ainias Smith returns for 29 yds to the TexAM 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 6:03: Seth Small 35 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +1.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- FG · Q1 0:23: Parker White 37 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +1.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:35: Kellen Mond pass complete to Cordarrian Richardson for 17 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +4.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- FG · Q4 12:40: Seth Small 40 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +7.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:13: Kellen Mond run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +4.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SC made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
- Q1 15:00SC 4th & 5 at SC 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snapGo for it23.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.4%average punt
- Q1 6:03TA&M 4th & 13 at SC 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snapGo for it73.9%−0.419% to convertField goalTheir call74.3%79% to makePunt73.1%−1.2average punt
- Q1 6:03SC 4th & 19 at SC 36, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snapGo for it23.8%−0.611% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.4%average punt
- Q1 3:50TA&M 4th & 9 at TA&M 48, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snapGo for it74.4%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.6%average punt
- Q1 0:23SC 4th & 10 at TA&M 20, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.1% before the snapGo for it25.6%−0.428% to convertField goalTheir call26.0%75% to makePunt23.7%−2.3average punt
- Q2 11:35SC 4th & 5 at SC 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snapGo for it22.5%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.7%average punt
- Q2 6:43TA&M 4th & 10 at SC 24, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.9% before the snapGo for it77.0%−0.528% to convertField goalTheir call77.5%68% to makePunt74.3%−3.2average punt
- Q2 6:43SC 4th & 9 at midfield, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snapGo for it21.9%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.0%average punt
- Q2 0:26TA&M 4th & 10 at SC 13, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snapGo for it77.0%−1.426% to convertField goalTheir call78.3%85% to makePunt73.8%−4.5average punt
- Q2 0:15SC 4th & 10 at SC 25, down 10Numbers favored punt by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 18.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.8%−1.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt18.2%average punt
- Q3 15:00TA&M 4th & 21 at TA&M 13, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snapGo for it78.2%−3.08% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.2%average punt
- Q3 12:46SC 4th & 13 at SC 33, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snapGo for it16.0%−2.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.1%average punt
- Q3 11:42TA&M 4th & 2 at TA&M 40, up 10Close callPunted · 81.9% before the snapGo for it82.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.4%−1.0average punt
- Q3 10:07SC 4th & 4 at SC 30, down 10Close callPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it17.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.8%−0.2average punt
- Q3 6:34TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 34, up 10Close callPunted · 83.4% before the snapGo for it84.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 5:42SC 4th & 10 at SC 42, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snapGo for it14.9%−1.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.4%average punt
- Q4 12:40TA&M 4th & 19 at SC 23, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snapGo for it84.7%−2.110% to convertField goalTheir call86.8%70% to makePunt81.7%−5.1average punt
- Q4 12:40SC 4th & 10 at SC 25, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snapGo for it7.3%−0.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.0%average punt
- Q4 10:13SC 4th & 8 at TA&M 23, down 20Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%−0.633% to convertField goal1.6%70% to makePunt0.0%−1.6average punt
- Q4 6:37SC 4th & 15 at TA&M 25, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−0.316% to convertField goal0.4%66% to makePunt-0.1%−0.4average punt
- Q4 3:27SC 4th & 19 at TA&M 21, down 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.310% to convertField goalTheir call0.4%74% to makePunt-0.0%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 11:35TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.1%97% to makeGo for two76.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:13TA&M Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 6:37TA&M Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
TA&MDrive 2FG12 plays · 78 yds · 7:0476% → 75%
Q1 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+10
76.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 10 yds to the TexAM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
76.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 5 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
76.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 24 yds to the SCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
76.5%
Kellen Mond sacked for loss of 7 yards to the 50 yardline (D.J. Wonnum), fumble by Kellen Mond recovered by TAMU Dan Moore Jr. at TAMU45, PENALTY SC personal foul (T.J. Brunson) 15 yards to the SC28, 1ST DOWN TAMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+3
76.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 3 yds to the SCaro 11Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 6
OPP 11
-7
76.5%
Kellen Mond sacked by Kingsley Enagbare for a loss of 7 yards to the SCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
75.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Chavis Dawkins for 21 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 14
OWN 41
-5
75.7%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Israel Mukuamu) to the SCaro 36Similar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 19
OWN 36
+29
75.9%
Joseph Charlton punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 47 , Ainias Smith returns for 29 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
SCDrive 5FG7 plays · 63 yds · 1:4926% → 28%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+41
74.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Shi Smith for 41 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
73.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Kevin Harris for 11 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
73.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Kyle Markway for 11 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4873% → 79%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
78.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Cordarrian Richardson for 17 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 11:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
76.6%
Rico Dowdle run for 2 yds to the SCaro 30 Rico Dowdle fumbled, forced by Buddy Johnson,Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+46
77.5%
Joseph Charlton punt for 36 yds, downed at the TEXASAM 34 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the TexAM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8MISSED FG10 plays · 52 yds · 3:4177% → 78%
Q2 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+31
77.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 31 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
78.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 10 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+3
78.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 3 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+6
78.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 6 yds to the SCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
78.6%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney Davis, broken up by Israel MukuamuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
77.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Chad Terrell for 10 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
76.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Kevin Harris for 9 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
75.8%
Shi Smith pass incomplete to Kyle Markway, broken up by Leon O'Neal Jr.Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
76.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Shi Smith, broken up by Charles OliverSimilar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+1
76.8%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Kyle Markway for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 9
50
0
77.6%
Joseph Charlton punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10FG14 plays · 77 yds · 3:4678% → 80%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
78.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 8 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
78.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 5 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+6
77.7%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon Ausbon, PENALTY SC pass interference (Israel Mukuamu) 6 yards to the TAMU35, 1ST DOWN TAMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
78.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
50
+13
79.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 13 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
79.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon Ausbon, broken up by Jaycee HornSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
79.9%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Ainias Smith, broken up by Jammie RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11END OF HALF8 plays · 30 yds · 0:2221% → 20%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
80.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Chad Terrell for 20 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12PUNT7 plays · -11 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
81.4%
Isaiah Spiller rush for 10 yards to the TAMU34, out-of-bounds (J.T. Ibe), PENALTY TAMU holding (J Wydermyer) 10 yards to the TAMU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 18
-5
79.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, false start (Clifford Chattman) to the TexAM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q3 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-3
81.4%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Rico Dowdle for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 33Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
82.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Shi Smith, broken up by Devin MorrisSimilar
Q3 12:46
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+23
83.0%
Joseph Charlton punt for 58 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 23 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q3 11:42
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+3
82.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 3 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 10:07
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+15
83.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Kyle Markway for 15 yds to the SCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
82.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Kyle Markway for 6 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
82.6%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Dakereon Joyner, broken up by Charles OliverSimilar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+56
83.5%
Joseph Charlton punt for 46 yds TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive holding (Travon Fuller) to the TexAM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0683% → 82%
Q3 6:34
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+5
83.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 5 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 16%
TA&MDrive 18FG18 plays · 67 yds · 7:4083% → 94%
Q3 5:20
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
83.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 1 yd to the TexAM 27Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+26
82.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 26 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+15
86.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 15 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+17
88.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 17 yds to the SCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
-15
88.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 9 yards to the SC1, PENALTY TAMU pass interference (Jhamon Ausbon) 15 yards to the SC25, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 12:40
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.4%
Joseph Charlton punt for 42 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 2 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20TD5 plays · 65 yds · 2:0395% → 99%
SCDrive 21DOWNS11 plays · 27 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
50
+5
98.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 5 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
98.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Shi Smith, broken up by Charles OliverSimilar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+14
98.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Kyle Markway for 14 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
98.5%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 2 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22TD2 plays · 77 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
SCDrive 23DOWNS8 plays · 62 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Shi Smith for no gain to the SCaro 25 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Charles Oliver) to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
99.9%
Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Chad Terrell for 15 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
99.9%
Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Trey Adkins for 25 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-5
99.9%
Dakereon Joyner sacked by Andre White Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 25Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 15
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Dakereon Joyner pass incomplete to Shi Smith, broken up by Charles OliverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24FUMBLE2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
SCDrive 25FG5 plays · -9 yds · 0:340% → 1%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
99.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Kevin Harris for 6 yds to the TexAM 6Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Shi Smith, broken up by Charles OliverSimilar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 4
OPP 6
-15
99.9%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Shi Smith) to the TexAM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26END OF GAME6 plays · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:27
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
99.7%
James Foster run for no gain to the TexAM 38 James Foster fumbled, recovered by TexAM James FosterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 12:40
Seth Small 40 yd FG GOOD
+7.1
TD · Q2 11:35
Kellen Mond pass complete to Cordarrian Richardson for 17 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q4 10:13
Kellen Mond run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
+4.2