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ALA

Alabama 38 at Mississippi State 7

MSST
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:42 · Tucker Day punt for 38 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 2 yds to the Alab 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Home team on offense−29.8Pregame prior−29.8Score differential−12.9Garbage-time factor−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:37: Kylin Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +0.9 pts (now 11%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:22: Najee Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +1.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:15: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 35 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +3.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:08: Najee Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +0.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:30: Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 28 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyre Phillips) to the MisSt 18 — ALA win probability +3.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ALA made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 0:59MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:57MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:42MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 38, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:49ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 32, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:32MSST 4th & 2 at ALA 17, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:28ALA 4th & 3 at MSST 4, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:50MSST 4th & 11 at ALA 40, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:06ALA 4th & 4 at MSST 45, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:56MSST 4th & 1 at ALA 40, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:03MSST 4th & 6 at ALA 30, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:30ALA 4th & 9 at MSST 26, up 31
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:58MSST 4th & 6 at ALA 44, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:08ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:54ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:37MSST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:22ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:15ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:08ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:4291% → 90%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
9.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 4 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-5
9.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Alex Leatherwood) to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+1
9.6%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+37
9.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 37 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
9.8%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+10
9.6%
Najee Harris run for 10 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
9.8%
Tommy Stevens pass intercepted Shane Lee return for 10 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
1 play · 19 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
9.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for 19 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0710% → 11%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
9.6%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+27
9.7%
Tommy Stevens run for 27 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
9.8%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+1
9.9%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Alab 37Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+15
10.0%
Stevens, Tommy pass sacked for loss of 8 yards to the ALABAMA45 (Davis, Raekwon), PENALTY ALABAMA face mask (Davis, Raekwon) 15 yards to the ALABAMA22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+19
10.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for 19 yds to the Alab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
10.3%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Alab 1Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.2%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
14 plays · 71 yds · 4:5389% → 90%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-8
10.9%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Nathan Pickering and Erroll Thompson for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 22Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+8
11.1%
Tagovailoa, Tua pass incomplete to Ruggs III, Henry, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Dantzler, Cameron) 8 yards to the ALABAMA30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
11.0%
Najee Harris run for 14 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
10.9%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
11.2%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+15
11.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 15 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
11.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 36 yds to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jerry Jeudy) to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
11.3%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 12
OPP 22
-15
11.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Landon Dickerson) to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 28
OPP 37
+23
11.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for 23 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+4
11.6%
Tagovailoa, Tua pass incomplete to Waddle, Jaylen, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Cole II, Brian) 4 yards to the MISSSTATE10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q1 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
11.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 3 yds to the MisSt 7, fumbled by Smith, Henry Ruggs III for 2 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
10.0%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:0111% → 11%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-9
10.5%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 1 yd to the MisSt 26 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 16Similar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 19
OWN 16
-1
10.6%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Nick Gibson for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 15Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
10.6%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+9
10.6%
Nick Gibson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 0:59
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
10.6%
Tucker Day punt for 45 yds, downed at the Alab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:1890% → 93%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
10.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
10.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+6
10.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
7.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 35 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:488% → 8%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
7.7%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
7.7%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for 2 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
7.6%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 2 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
7.6%
Tucker Day punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 5:4293% → 94%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
6.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-3
6.8%
Najee Harris run for 12 yds to the Alab 42 ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Drew Kobayashi) to the Alab 27Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
6.8%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
6.7%
Tua Tagovailoa run for no gain to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+13
6.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 13 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
6.4%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+34
6.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 34 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
6.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
6.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 2 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+12
6.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 12 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
6.0%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the MisSt 7Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+2
6.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 2 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
5.6%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:184% → 5%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
3.8%
Isaiah Zuber run for 2 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
3.6%
Tommy Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+15
3.5%
Stevens, Tommy pass incomplete to Guidry, Stephen, PENALTY ALABAMA roughing passer (McKinney, Xavier) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
3.8%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
3.5%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
4.9%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+2
4.7%
Tucker Day punt for 38 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 2 yds to the Alab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4694% → 93%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
6.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
6.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
6.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
6.9%
Ty Perine punt for 42 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for no gain to the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:303% → 2%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-8
3.4%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 28 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyre Phillips) to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 18
OWN 18
0
3.7%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for no gain to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 18
OWN 18
+5
3.5%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Nick Gibson for 5 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+2
2.0%
Tommy Stevens run for 2 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+26
1.9%
Tucker Day punt for 48 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 26 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 59 yds · 3:233% → 3%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
3.0%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+46
3.2%
Tommy Stevens run for 46 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
4.2%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Alab 24Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+5
3.9%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 5 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+2
3.4%
Tommy Stevens run for 2 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+1
3.3%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Alab 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14FG
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:5397% → 98%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
2.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 10 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
2.6%
Najee Harris run for 20 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
2.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 9 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+9
2.0%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+26
2.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 26 yds to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
1.9%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 12Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+1
1.8%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the MisSt 11Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+7
1.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 7 yds to the MisSt 4Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+22
2.1%
Joseph Bulovas 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:102% → 1%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
1.6%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+30
1.5%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for 30 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
1.7%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-6
1.7%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 11
OPP 40
0
1.6%
Tommy Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
0.8%
Tucker Day punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:3398% → 99%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
1.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+18
0.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 18 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
0.8%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 16 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
0.7%
Jones, Mac pass complete to Smith, DeVonta for 46 yards to the MISSSTATE5, PENALTY ALABAMA illegal motion 5 yards to the ALABAMA44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+3
0.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+8
0.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 8 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
0.6%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Brian Robinson Jr.Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
0.7%
Ty Perine punt for 37 yds, downed at the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17DOWNS
15 plays · 62 yds · 7:290% → 0%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
0.4%
Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+12
0.4%
Tommy Stevens run for 12 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
0.4%
Tommy Stevens run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+17
0.3%
Tommy Stevens run for 17 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
0.4%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
0.3%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+10
0.3%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 10 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
0.3%
Nick Gibson run for 6 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-1
0.2%
Tommy Stevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+4
0.2%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 9:56
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+6
0.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 6 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
0.2%
Garrett Shrader run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
0.2%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+5
0.2%
Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 6
OPP 30
0
0.2%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
0.2%
Tyrell Shavers run for 14 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
0.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
0.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+20
0.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 20 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
0.2%
Keilan Robinson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
0.1%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
0.2%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Keilan RobinsonSimilar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 9
OPP 26
0
0.2%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Slade BoldenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:020% → 0%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
0.1%
Tommy Stevens run for 2 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+4
0.1%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+20
0.1%
Nick Gibson run for 20 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
0.1%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Geor'quarius SpiveySimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
0.1%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 3 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+1
0.1%
Nick Gibson run for 1 yd to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 6
OPP 44
-8
0.1%
Tommy Stevens sacked by Ben Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
0.1%
Keilan Robinson run for no gain to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
0.1%
Keilan Robinson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 2:30
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 28 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyre Phillips) to the MisSt 18
-3.5
TD · Q2 14:15
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 35 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
-3.2
TD · Q1 3:22
Najee Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
-1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com