Try the model
LSU

LSU 58 at Ole Miss 37

MISS
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:26 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:40: John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +3.3 pts (now 7%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:29: John Rhys Plumlee run for 46 yds for a TD (John Rhys Plumlee pass to Elijah Moore for Two-Point Conversion) — MISS win probability +4.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:46: John Rhys Plumlee run for 60 yds for a TD (J. Rhys Plumlee Run For Two-point Conversion) — MISS win probability +7.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:50: Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 7 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:26: John Rhys Plumlee run for 35 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +10.6 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 8LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:03MISS 4th & 6 at LSU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:52LSU 4th & 3 at MISS 30, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.1%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:24MISS 4th & 5 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:51MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:58MISS 4th & 17 at LSU 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:05LSU 4th & 15 at MISS 15, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:27LSU 4th & 1 at MISS 11, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%−1.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    84.7%−6.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:19LSU 4th & 9 at MISS 9, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−4.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:25LSU 4th & 5 at MISS 34, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:20MISS 4th & 5 at LSU 22, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:35MISS 4th & 18 at LSU 35, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%
    45% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:52MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:30MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 5LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:56LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:22LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:09LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:27LSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:40MISS Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:29MISS Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:46MISS Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:50LSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:26MISS Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:11LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:19MISS Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:08LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:2993% → 93%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
6.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 8 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
6.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 4 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
6.9%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Thaddeus MossSimilar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
7.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 9 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+7
7.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 7 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
7.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 13 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
7.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 34 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 1:307% → 8%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
7.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 30 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
7.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 7 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+13
7.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 13 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
7.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
7.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
7.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
7.6%
Luke Logan 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:0192% → 92%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
7.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 14 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
7.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 12 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
7.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 7
50
+6
7.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+7
7.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 7 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
7.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
7.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 7 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
8.0%
Joe Burrow run for no gain to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+48
8.2%
Cade York 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:058% → 9%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
8.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+11
8.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 11 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
8.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
8.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+5
8.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 5
50
0
9.1%
Mac Brown punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:3891% → 92%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
9.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 23 yds Thaddeus Moss fumbled, forced by Zikerrion Baker, recovered by LSU Thaddeus Moss for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
8.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 11 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
8.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 9 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+4
8.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
9.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 1 yd to the Miss 32Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+10
9.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 10 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
9.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Miss 22Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+18
9.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 18 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
7.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:218% → 8%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
8.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
8.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
8.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
8.4%
Mac Brown punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:3492% → 95%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
8.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 22 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
5.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 51 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 2:506% → 6%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
6.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 9 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
6.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
6.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 13 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
6.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 9 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+1
6.7%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
6.6%
Elijah Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 37Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
6.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 12
OPP 37
0
6.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q2 11:06
4TH & 12
OPP 37
-5
6.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
6.3%
Mac Brown punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:1195% → 95%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
5.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 6 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
5.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+47
5.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 32 yds to the OLEMISS 41 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Sideline Interference (15 Yards) to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
4.8%
Joe Burrow run for 10 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
4.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+12
5.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 12 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:203% → 7%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+49
3.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 49 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
3.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 7 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+6
3.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
3.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 10 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
3.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 5Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
6.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11FG
18 plays · 63 yds · 5:1295% → 96%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
5.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 8 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+13
5.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 13 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
4.9%
Joe Burrow sacked by Tariqious Tisdale for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+14
5.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 14 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
5.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+6
5.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 6 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+1
5.5%
Joe Burrow run for 1 yd to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
4.5%
Burrow, Joe pass complete to Jefferson, Justin for 30 yards to the OLEMISS6, PENALTY LSU holding (Moss, Thaddeus) 10 yards to the OLEMISS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+28
4.4%
Joe Burrow run for 13 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Lakia Henry) to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
4.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 12 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
4.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
4.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 6Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-9
4.0%
Joe Burrow sacked by Sam Williams and Jacquez Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
4.2%
Cade York 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
5.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 19 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:165% → 10%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
5.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 29 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
9.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 46 yds for a TD (John Rhys Plumlee pass to Elijah Moore for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14FG
19 plays · 66 yds · 5:5292% → 96%
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
7.6%
Joe Burrow run for 15 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
6.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 2 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+15
7.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 15 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
6.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
6.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+9
6.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 9 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
6.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+9
6.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
6.6%
Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
6.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+4
6.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+4
6.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 4 yds to the Miss 11Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+1
6.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 1 yd to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
6.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
6.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the Miss 9Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
6.5%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Thaddeus MossSimilar
Q3 8:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
4.2%
Cade York 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:187% → 14%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
6.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 15 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
13.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 60 yds for a TD (J. Rhys Plumlee Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4888% → 96%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
12.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 20 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
11.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Clyde Edwards-HelaireSimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+48
11.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 48 yds to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
4.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 7 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17INT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:277% → 7%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
6.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 22 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
7.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the Miss 48Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+2
7.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 7
50
+40
7.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass intercepted Kary Vincent Jr. return for 40 yds to the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18FG
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:3896% → 98%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-15
4.0%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kary Vincent Jr.) to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
4.1%
Joe Burrow sacked by Keidron Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+8
4.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 8 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
3.3%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+52
1.6%
Cade York 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19DOWNS
12 plays · 55 yds · 3:533% → 3%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
3.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 12 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
3.0%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+7
3.0%
Snoop Conner run for 7 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
3.1%
Snoop Conner run for 12 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
3.0%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+13
3.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 13 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
3.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 9
OPP 26
-2
3.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+6
2.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 6 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+2
2.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:3299% → 99%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
1.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
1.1%
Joe Burrow pass intercepted Keidron Smith return for no gain to the LSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
1 play · 35 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
11.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 35 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22INT
5 plays · 32 yds · 2:0396% → 97%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
3.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 16 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
3.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 14 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
3.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
2.9%
Joe Burrow pass intercepted Deantre Prince return for no gain to the Miss 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23DOWNS
16 plays · 49 yds · 5:219% → 5%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+17
8.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 17 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
8.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+5
6.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+8
7.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 8 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
7.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+1
6.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+5
6.1%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (K'Lavon Chaisson) to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+5
6.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
6.5%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+12
6.1%
Snoop Conner run for 12 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
6.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Octavious CooleySimilar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
5.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 2 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-10
5.6%
Plumlee, John Rhys rush for 1 yard to the LSU24, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Broeker, Nick) 10 yards to the LSU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 18
OPP 35
0
5.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 18
OPP 35
0
4.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Octavious CooleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:2398% → 99%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
1.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 3
OWN 41
-2
1.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+61
0.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 61 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:521% → 3%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
1.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Braylon Sanders) to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
0.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Tylan Knight for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
0.9%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
0.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Tylan Knight for 3 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
0.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 5 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
0.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 7 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+55
2.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 55 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26TD
2 plays · 49 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
0.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 49 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:241% → 1%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.9%
Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
0.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jadon JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
0.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dannis JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
0.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
0.5%
John Emery Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+5
0.4%
John Emery Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
0.4%
John Emery Jr. run for 9 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 1
OPP 10
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:26
John Rhys Plumlee run for 35 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)
+10.6
TD · Q3 6:50
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 7 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)
-7.1
TD · Q3 7:46
John Rhys Plumlee run for 60 yds for a TD (J. Rhys Plumlee Run For Two-point Conversion)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com