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NMSU

New Mexico State 3 at Ole Miss 41

MISS
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:38 · Payton Theisler punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 37 , Elijah Moore returns for 15 yds to the Miss 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Pregame prior+15.3Home team on offense+35.1Score differential+28.9Garbage-time factor+9.6Blowout margin+15.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 12:36: Luke Logan 36 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 5%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:57: Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +2.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 5:46: Dylan Brown 34 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:40: John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +3.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:29: John Rhys Plumlee run for 18 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 4NMSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00MISS 4th & 4 at NMSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    95.6%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:36MISS 4th & 3 at NMSU 19, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.3%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:36NMSU 4th & 6 at MISS 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:39NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:50NMSU 4th & 5 at MISS 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:46NMSU 4th & 3 at MISS 16, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.9%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:30MISS 4th & 11 at NMSU 31, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:30NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:29NMSU 4th & 7 at MISS 43, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:38NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 31, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:38MISS 4th & 5 at NMSU 11, up 35
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:38NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:39MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:57MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:40MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:29MISS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:38MISS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:2496% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
95.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 14 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
95.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
50
+5
95.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
95.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Jason Pellerin, broken up by Devin RichardsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+7
95.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jason Pellerin for 7 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
95.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
95.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+7
95.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 19
0
95.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+36
95.2%
Luke Logan 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.1%
Tony Nicholson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
95.1%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
95.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 9 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
95.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 1
50
+3
95.1%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
95.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Terrell Warner for 4 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
95.1%
Josh Adkins run for no gain to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
95.1%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 6
OPP 43
+20
95.1%
Payton Theisler punt for 25 yds NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Miss 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:1994% → 95%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
94.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+7
94.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 7 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
94.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+4
94.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+21
94.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 21 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
94.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
94.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+9
94.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
94.6%
Snoop Conner run for 30 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
94.2%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
94.1%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
94.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 1 yd to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
94.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 5
50
-5
94.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
94.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-2
94.1%
Josh Adkins sacked by Benito Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 9
OWN 46
-2
94.3%
Payton Theisler punt for 38 yds , Elijah Moore returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FUMBLE
6 plays · 59 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+28
93.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 28 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
94.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
94.1%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+8
94.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 8 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
94.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 17 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
94.1%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27 Snoop Conner fumbled, forced by Devin Richardson, recovered by NMxSt Rashie Hodge Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
93.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 9 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+1
93.2%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
93.3%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
93.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 2 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
93.4%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
93.6%
Payton Theisler punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:4993% → 96%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+75
93.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 75 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8FG
18 plays · 65 yds · 6:045% → 7%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
95.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 3 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+3
95.4%
Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+8
95.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
95.3%
Josh Adkins run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+3
95.1%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-7
95.2%
Josh Adkins sacked by Willie Hibbler for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 17
OWN 37
0
95.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 17
OWN 37
+29
95.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 14 yds to the OLEMISS 49 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, personal foul (Benito Jones) to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
95.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 5 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
94.9%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
95.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason Huntley, broken up by Jalen JuliusSimilar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+6
95.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 6 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
94.9%
Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-4
94.9%
Josh Adkins sacked by Josiah Coatney for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+8
94.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 8 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q2 5:46
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+34
93.0%
Dylan Brown 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
15 plays · 65 yds · 5:0694% → 98%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
93.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+9
93.7%
Dannis Jackson run for 9 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
93.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 2 yds Jerrion Ealy fumbled, forced by Rashie Hodge Jr., recovered by Miss Snoop Conner , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 7
50
+15
93.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Jadon Jackson, PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Lomax, Shamad) 15 yards to the NMSU35, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
93.9%
Snoop Conner run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
93.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+3
93.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 3 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+5
94.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (John Graves III) to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
94.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
94.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
94.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
97.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 3 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+5
97.1%
Josh Adkins run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
97.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 3 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+5
97.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 5 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+4
97.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
97.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Tony Bello) to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+8
97.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+3
97.2%
Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
97.2%
Payton Theisler punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12MISSED FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 3:4298% → 98%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
98.0%
PENALTY OM unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY NMSU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
98.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
97.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 16 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
98.1%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+13
98.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 13 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
98.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 11 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
98.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 11
OPP 31
0
98.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Jerrion Ealy, broken up by Rashie Hodge Jr.Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
98.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah Moore, broken up by Javahn FergursonSimilar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+48
98.1%
Luke Logan 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
97.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 2 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-4
97.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+1
98.0%
Payton Theisler punt for 35 yds , Dontario Drummond returns for 1 yd to the Miss 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:3698% → 100%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
98.2%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+15
98.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 15 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
98.3%
Snoop Conner run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+21
98.3%
Snoop Conner run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 18 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.7%
Josh Adkins sacked by Quentin Bivens for a loss of 10 yards to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+21
99.7%
Jason Huntley run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
99.7%
Jason Huntley run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+9
99.7%
Josh Adkins run for 9 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
99.7%
Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
99.7%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Christian GibsonSimilar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
99.7%
Josh Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
99.7%
Josh Adkins punt for 41 yds, downed at the Miss 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
9 plays · 98 yds · 4:14100% → 100%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
99.8%
Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Miss 8Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+38
99.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 38 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
99.8%
Snoop Conner run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
99.8%
Snoop Conner run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
99.8%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+2
99.9%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 21
-5
99.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (Jonathan Mingo) to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+25
99.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jason Pellerin for 25 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaac Way KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
99.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 37 , Elijah Moore returns for 15 yds to the Miss 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 7:02100% → 100%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-2
99.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+10
99.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 10 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-1
99.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+6
99.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
99.9%
Tylan Knight run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
99.9%
Tylan Knight run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
99.9%
Tylan Knight run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+7
99.9%
Tylan Knight run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.9%
Tylan Knight run for no gain to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+4
99.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+1
99.9%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
99.9%
Luke Logan 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 1 yd to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Payton Theisler punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20END OF GAME
9 plays · 37 yds · 1:29100% → 100%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
99.9%
Kinkead Dent run for 5 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
99.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 6 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
99.9%
Tylan Knight run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
100.0%
Kinkead Dent run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+7
100.0%
KeShun Wells run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
100.0%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
100.0%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for no gain to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+1
100.0%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:40
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q2 11:57
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)
+2.9
FG · Q2 5:46
Dylan Brown 34 yd FG GOOD
-1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com