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WKU

Western Kentucky 45 at Arkansas 19

ARK
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Sam Loy punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKent 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Home team on offense−2.9Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Pregame prior+1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:30: Jacquez Sloan run for 19 yds for a TD (Cory Munson KICK) — WKU win probability +2.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:59: Ty Storey run for 9 yds for a TD (Cory Munson KICK) — WKU win probability +5.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:42: Ty Storey run for 1 yd for a TD (Cory Munson KICK) — WKU win probability +12.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:02: Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 69 yds for a TD (Cory Munson KICK) — WKU win probability +11.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:19: Gaej Walker run for 1 yd for a TD (Cory Munson KICK) — WKU win probability +6.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 6WKU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:15WKU 4th & 4 at ARK 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    45.6%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:15WKU 4th & 3 at ARK 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    45.6%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:51WKU 4th & 2 at ARK 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    50.6%−1.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:51WKU 4th & 6 at ARK 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    51.3%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:04ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:02ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:49WKU 4th & 1 at ARK 31, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    83.8%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    82.6%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 28, up 28
    Close callPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:59ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:38WKU 4th & 1 at ARK 1, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:51ARK 4th & 16 at WKU 27, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00WKU 4th & 11 at midfield, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:21WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 31, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:38ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 30, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WKU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:30WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:02ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:59WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:42WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:02WKU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:19WKU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:21ARK Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:20WKU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:44ARK Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1INT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
52.5%
Rakeem Boyd rush for 3 yards to the AR28 (A. Kincade), PENALTY AR holding (Chase Harrell) 10 yards to the AR15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+4
52.5%
John Stephen Jones run for 4 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+11
52.5%
John Stephen Jones pass complete to Mike Woods for 11 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
52.5%
John Stephen Jones pass intercepted Antwon Kincade return for no gain to the Ark 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:4548% → 50%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
52.5%
Gaej Walker run for 6 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
52.5%
Ty Storey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
52.5%
Ty Storey pass incomplete, broken up by Greg Brooks Jr.Similar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+5
52.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 5 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
52.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 5 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+1
52.4%
Gaej Walker run for 1 yd to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+1
52.5%
Ty Storey run for 1 yd to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+5
52.6%
Ty Storey run for 5 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
50.5%
Jacquez Sloan run for 19 yds for a TD (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
5 plays · 88 yds · 1:2851% → 53%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
51.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 13Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+11
51.1%
John Stephen Jones pass complete to Treylon Burks for 11 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
51.1%
John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+76
53.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for 76 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0347% → 53%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Joshua Simon for no gain to the WKent 25Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
53.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 11 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
53.0%
Ty Storey pass complete to Garland LaFrance for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 35Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+7
53.2%
Ty Storey run for 7 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+13
52.7%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 13 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
52.5%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jahcour PearsonSimilar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
52.5%
Gaej Walker run for no gain to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+22
52.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Joshua Simon for 22 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
52.2%
Gaej Walker run for 6 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 4
OPP 17
0
52.2%
Ty Storey run for no gain to the Ark 17Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+8
52.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 8 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
46.8%
Ty Storey run for 9 yds for a TD (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5949% → 47%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
48.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+1
48.5%
John Stephen Jones run for 1 yd to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+5
48.0%
John Stephen Jones pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
47.4%
Sam Loy punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKent 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD
16 plays · 59 yds · 7:0954% → 66%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
46.3%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Joshua SimonSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
46.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 4 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+7
46.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 7 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
46.0%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
46.2%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jahcour Pearson, broken up by Bumper PoolSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+9
46.6%
Gaej Walker run for 9 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+4
47.0%
Ty Storey run for 4 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
46.0%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jahcour PearsonSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
46.1%
Gaej Walker run for 4 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
46.3%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Gaej WalkerSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+7
47.0%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 7 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
45.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 9 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+7
45.8%
Gaej Walker run for 7 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
45.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 5 yds to the Ark 4Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
45.8%
Ty Storey run for 3 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.9%
Ty Storey run for 1 yd for a TD (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:3835% → 34%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
34.0%
John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Treylon Burks, broken up by Roger CraySimilar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
33.6%
John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Rakeem Boyd, broken up by Kyle BaileySimilar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
33.6%
Sam Loy punt for 46 yds, downed at the WKent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:3867% → 78%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
33.4%
Gaej Walker run for 4 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+69
22.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 69 yds for a TD (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
25.3%
K.J. Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+7
25.6%
K.J. Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
25.6%
K.J. Jefferson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
25.1%
K.J. Jefferson pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
24.9%
K.J. Jefferson pass incomplete to Devwah WhaleySimilar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
24.9%
Reid Bauer punt for 37 yds, downed at the WKent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 3:2480% → 90%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
19.8%
Gaej Walker run for 3 yds to the WKent 35Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
19.8%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jahcour Pearson, broken up by Micahh SmithSimilar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+14
20.4%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 14 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
19.1%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jacquez SloanSimilar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
19.2%
Ty Storey run for 7 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
19.3%
Ty Storey run for 4 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
18.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for no gain to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-1
16.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Gaej Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+10
16.7%
Gaej Walker run for 10 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+4
17.7%
Ty Storey run for 4 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+26
16.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 26 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.6%
Gaej Walker run for 1 yd for a TD (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
7.7%
K.J. Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
11.7%
Gaej Walker run for 2 yds to the WKent 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+5
11.7%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 5 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
11.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for no gain to the WKent 28Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+18
11.7%
John Haggerty punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 31 , Treylon Burks returns for 18 yds to the Ark 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
9.7%
John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
9.4%
John Stephen Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
9.3%
John Stephen Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
9.3%
Reid Bauer punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Roger Cray at the WKent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14FG
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:5392% → 95%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
8.0%
Ty Storey run for 6 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+39
7.8%
Gaej Walker run for 39 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+22
7.4%
Ty Storey run for 22 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
6.3%
Gaej Walker run for no gain to the Ark 1Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
6.5%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Joshua Simon, broken up by Jalen CatalonSimilar
Q3 12:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
6.6%
Ty Storey run for no gain to the Ark 1Similar
Q3 9:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
5.0%
Cory Munson 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15DOWNS
16 plays · 38 yds · 6:478% → 2%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
7.7%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+8
7.4%
K.J. Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
7.9%
K.J. Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
7.9%
K.J. Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon Burks, broken up by Dionte RuffinSimilar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
7.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for 6 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+17
8.0%
K.J. Jefferson run for 17 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
8.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the WKent 26Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+5
8.8%
K.J. Jefferson run for 5 yds to the WKent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
8.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, delay of game (K.J. Jefferson) to the WKent 26Similar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 15
OPP 26
-10
3.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 26 yards to the WKU0, clock 05:03, PENALTY AR holding (M. Cunningham) 10 yards to the WKU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 25
OPP 36
+5
3.5%
K.J. Jefferson run for 5 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 20
OPP 31
-9
3.6%
K.J. Jefferson sacked by Ricky Barber for a loss of 9 yards to the WKent 40Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 29
OPP 40
+13
3.4%
K.J. Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 13 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q3 2:51
4TH & 16
OPP 27
0
2.4%
K.J. Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 2:4799% → 99%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
1.4%
Gaej Walker run for 8 yds to the WKent 35Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+4
1.4%
Gaej Walker run for 4 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
1.3%
Gaej Walker run for 6 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
1.3%
Gaej Walker run for 3 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
1.3%
Ty Storey run for 3 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
0.7%
Gaej Walker run for no gain to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
0.7%
Ty Storey run for no gain to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+4
0.7%
Gaej Walker run for 4 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 45
-5
0.8%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, delay of game (Ty Storey) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
50
0
0.8%
John Haggerty punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Treylon Burks at the Ark 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17TD
2 plays · 86 yds · 0:181% → 1%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
0.5%
Treylon Burks pass incomplete to Chase HarrellSimilar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+86
0.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 86 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
0.5%
Gaej Walker run for 4 yds to the WKent 16Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+6
0.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 6 yds to the WKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
0.5%
Gaej Walker run for 5 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+3
0.5%
Gaej Walker run for 3 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
0.5%
Ty Storey run for 1 yd to the WKent 31Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
0.5%
John Haggerty punt for 49 yds, downed at the Ark 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 1:111% → 0%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.5%
K.J. Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 20Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
0.5%
K.J. Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for no gain to the Ark 20Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+25
0.2%
K.J. Jefferson pass intercepted for a TD Devon Key return for 25 yds for a TD (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:360% → 0%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
0.2%
Rakeem Boyd run for 8 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+3
0.2%
K.J. Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
0.2%
K.J. Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 20 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
0.3%
K.J. Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
0.2%
N/A pass incomplete to Chase HarrellSimilar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+34
0.2%
T.J. Hammonds run for 29 yds to the WKent 10 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Devon Key) to the WKent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
0.3%
K.J. Jefferson run for 3 yds to the WKent 2Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
0.3%
K.J. Jefferson run for no gain to the WKent 2Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.3%
K.J. Jefferson run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21FUMBLE
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
0.2%
KeShawn McClendon run for 1 yd to the WKent 48Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+9
0.2%
KeShawn McClendon run for 9 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
0.2%
Joshua Samuel run for 3 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+6
0.2%
Joshua Samuel run for 6 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-10
0.2%
K. McClendon rush for no gain to the AR34 (Grant Morgan), PENALTY WKU holding (G. Nickelson) 10 yards to the AR44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+16
0.1%
Davis Shanley run for 16 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
0.1%
Joshua Samuel run for 5 yds to the Ark 23 Joshua Samuel fumbled, forced by Jalen Catalon, recovered by Ark Micahh SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
0.1%
K.J. Jefferson pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
0.1%
K.J. Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+7
0.1%
K.J. Jefferson pass complete to T.J. Hammonds for 7 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+5
0.1%
K.J. Jefferson pass complete to Mike Woods for 5 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
0.1%
K.J. Jefferson sacked by Jaden Hunter for a loss of 10 yards to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+15
0.1%
K.J. Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 15 yds to the Ark 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:42
Ty Storey run for 1 yd for a TD (Cory Munson KICK)
-12
TD · Q2 6:02
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 69 yds for a TD (Cory Munson KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q2 0:19
Gaej Walker run for 1 yd for a TD (Cory Munson KICK)
-6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com