Try the model
LSU

LSU 46 at Alabama 41

ALA
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:48 · Slade Bolden run for no gain to the LSU 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Home team on offense−4.8Pregame prior+10.4Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:06: Clyde Edwards-Helaire 13 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +16.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:51: Najee Harris 15 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — ALA win probability +18.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:33: Najee Harris 1 Yd Run (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — ALA win probability +23.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 10:07: Clyde Edwards-Helaire 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — LSU win probability +17.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:32: Jerry Jeudy 5 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — ALA win probability +21.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 4:54LSU 4th & 5 at ALA 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−1.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:31ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:14LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:48ALA 4th & 1 at LSU 49, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.9%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:03LSU 4th & 6 at ALA 47, up 9
    Close callPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:20LSU 4th & 17 at ALA 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−2.1
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−5.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:39ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:08ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 49, down 20
    Close callPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:21LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 49, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:10LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 49, up 13
    Close callPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00ALA 4th & 1 at LSU 13, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.5%−1.9
    85% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−8.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:25ALA 4th & 4 at LSU 22, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−5.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:32ALA 4th & 2 at LSU 5, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−5.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:15LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:14ALA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:03LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:43ALA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:26LSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:06LSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:51ALA Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:33ALA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:07LSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    84.5%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    85.1%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:32ALA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:37LSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:21ALA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1FUMBLE
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:5166% → 66%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
65.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 20 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+31
65.7%
Najee Harris run for 31 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
65.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 9 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+3
65.8%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the LSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
65.8%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the LSU 8Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
65.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Najee Harris, broken up by Rashard LawrenceSimilar
Q1 12:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
65.7%
Tua Tagovailoa run for no gain to the LSU 8 Tua Tagovailoa fumbled, recovered by LSU Ray ThorntonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 92 yds · 2:4035% → 38%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
65.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+2
65.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
65.2%
Joe Burrow run for 7 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+23
65.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 23 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
64.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 18 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
62.4%
Ja'Marr Chase 33 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:5563% → 63%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
63.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 15 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
63.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
63.2%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
63.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0139% → 40%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
61.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Alab 35Similar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+3
61.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+5
60.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
60.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for no gain to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-7
60.3%
Joe Burrow sacked by Anfernee Jennings for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 17
OPP 34
+12
60.3%
Joe Burrow run for 12 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+40
59.6%
Cade York 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1960% → 57%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 5 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
59.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 29Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
58.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+8
57.3%
Ty Perine punt for 51 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for 8 yds to the LSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0141% → 37%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
58.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-9
58.0%
Joe Burrow sacked by Anfernee Jennings for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 22Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 16
OWN 22
+9
58.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 9 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+77
62.9%
Jaylen Waddle 77 Yd Punt Return (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5738% → 46%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
61.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
61.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
60.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 11 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
59.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 17 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
59.3%
Joe Burrow run for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+2
58.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+29
54.4%
Terrace Marshall Jr. 29 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:1054% → 53%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
54.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 22Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+20
53.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 20 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
54.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (DeVonta Smith) to the Alab 37Similar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+6
53.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for 6 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+4
54.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 4 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+4
53.8%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 4 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
52.7%
Slade Bolden run for no gain to the LSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3248% → 50%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
51.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 7 yds Thaddeus Moss fumbled, recovered by LSU Thaddeus MossSimilar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
51.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
51.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-5
51.2%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
49.7%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 1:2050% → 58%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
49.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Alex Leatherwood) to the Alab 5Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 15
OWN 5
0
49.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+5
50.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 5 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+26
49.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 26 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
58.2%
DeVonta Smith 64 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:1043% → 49%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
56.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 35 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
54.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 6 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+14
53.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 14 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
52.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
53.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 1 yd to the Alab 19Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-8
54.1%
Joe Burrow sacked by Raekwon Davis and Christian Barmore for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 27Similar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 17
OPP 27
+45
50.6%
Cade York 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:3652% → 49%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
51.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
52.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-2
51.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 33Similar
Q2 2:52
4TH & 5
OWN 33
-5
49.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 28Similar
Q2 2:39
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+11
49.0%
Ty Perine punt for 44 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for 11 yds to the LSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 1:5953% → 65%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
47.3%
Joe Burrow run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
50
+19
46.4%
Joe Burrow run for 19 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
44.9%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+14
45.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 14 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
44.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 16 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 1 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
38.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass intercepted Patrick Queen return for 16 yds to the Alab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:0567% → 83%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
33.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Landon Dickerson) to the Alab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
17.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 13 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
25.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17FUMBLE
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:2376% → 83%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.6%
Joe Burrow run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
23.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
23.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 7 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
22.1%
Joe Burrow run for 5 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+18
20.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 18 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
17.0%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
16.8%
Joe Burrow sacked by Xavier McKinney for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 45 Joe Burrow fumbled, recovered by Alab Terrell Lewis at the Alab 40, return for 2 yds to the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1624% → 21%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
23.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
22.8%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-2
23.5%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 49Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
20.7%
Ty Perine punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:3983% → 89%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
17.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 11 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
14.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 14 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
13.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
12.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+6
12.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 6 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-5
11.8%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
11.5%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
11 plays · 95 yds · 3:2417% → 33%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+31
16.5%
Najee Harris run for 31 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
17.4%
Tagovailoa, Tua pass incomplete, PENALTY ALABAMA personal foul (Leatherwood, Alex) 15 yards to the ALABAMA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 25
OWN 21
+23
16.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for 23 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+7
17.3%
Najee Harris run for 7 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
15.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
14.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+22
14.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 22 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
16.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+8
15.7%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+4
14.9%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
33.0%
Najee Harris 15 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:3577% → 79%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
22.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 16 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
20.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
20.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 6 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
19.9%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
21.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:2726% → 52%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
25.9%
Najee Harris run for 14 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
26.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
26.2%
Tagovailoa, Tua pass incomplete to Jeudy, Jerry, PENALTY LSU holding 10 yards to the ALABAMA46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+32
26.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 32 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
28.6%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 1
OPP 13
-1
28.1%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 14Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+1
25.9%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the LSU 13Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+12
25.2%
Najee Harris run for 12 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
28.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Major TennisonSimilar
Q4 14:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.5%
Najee Harris 1 Yd Run (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1364% → 92%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
36.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
34.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 12 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
32.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 4
50
+1
30.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 1 yd to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+13
29.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 13 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
28.4%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
28.4%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+11
29.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 11 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
26.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-1
25.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 20Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+15
25.7%
Joe Burrow run for 15 yds to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
8.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:2317% → 34%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
17.0%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Patrick Queen and Rashard Lawrence for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 16Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
16.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+26
15.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 26 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
17.7%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
19.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+21
17.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 21 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
19.2%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
17.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+2
15.0%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+9
12.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 9 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
15.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 8 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 2
OPP 5
0
14.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Najee Harris, broken up by Rashard LawrenceSimilar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
13.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+5
34.4%
Jerry Jeudy 5 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3278% → 98%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
22.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 29 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
16.9%
Joe Burrow sacked by Xavier McKinney for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 14
50
+17
17.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 17 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
14.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
11.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 4 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+18
7.6%
Joe Burrow run for 18 yds to the Alab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
1.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 7 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26TD
2 plays · 85 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
17.7%
DeVonta Smith 85 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 27Uncategorized
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:4595% → 95%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
5.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 12 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 39Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 12
OPP 39
-1
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 13
OPP 40
-2
4.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:33
Najee Harris 1 Yd Run (Joseph Bulovas Kick)
+23
TD · Q4 5:32
Jerry Jeudy 5 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)
+21.3
TD · Q3 4:51
Najee Harris 15 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)
+18.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com