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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreUAB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:35 · TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Marcus Tatum) to the UAB 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 4:44: Brent Cimaglia 48 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +0.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:36: Ty Chandler run for 11 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +4.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 6:42: Timeout TENNESSEE, clock 06:42 — UAB win probability +2.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:08: Jauan Jennings run for 2 yds for a TD UAB Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +4.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:08: Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 13 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UAB made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 13:27TENN 4th & 9 at UAB 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snapGo for it81.4%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call81.5%79% to makePunt81.1%−0.4average punt
- Q1 11:52UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 47, down 3Close callPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it18.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:44TENN 4th & 4 at UAB 31, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snapGo for it79.8%48% to convertField goalTheir call79.6%−0.254% to makePunt79.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 4:44UAB 4th & 15 at TENN 43, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snapGo for it18.9%−0.217% to convertField goal19.0%−0.228% to makePuntTheir call19.2%average punt
- Q2 15:00TENN 4th & 15 at TENN 46, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snapGo for it79.4%−0.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.0%average punt
- Q2 13:38TENN 4th & 15 at UAB 36, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snapGo for it79.6%−0.417% to convertField goalTheir call80.0%42% to makePunt79.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 11:30UAB 4th & 4 at UAB 41, down 16Close callPunted · 14.7% before the snapGo for it14.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 9:23TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 42, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.8% before the snapGo for it87.5%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.0%average punt
- Q2 1:10UAB 4th & 5 at UAB 10, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.0%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%average punt
- Q3 15:00TENN 4th & 3 at UAB 45, up 23Close callPunted · 95.0% before the snapGo for it95.1%52% to convertField goal94.5%−0.625% to makePuntTheir call95.0%−0.2average punt
- Q3 11:28UAB 4th & 11 at UAB 36, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.626% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.4%average punt
- Q4 15:00UAB 4th & 11 at UAB 47, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 13:37TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 10, up 30Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:33UAB 4th & 8 at TENN 49, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 10:00TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 22, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UAB made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q2 11:36TENN Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.5%97% to makeGo for two85.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:08TENN Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.0%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:08TENN Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:35UAB Touchdown, down 24 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.6%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUABDrive 1INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
86.1%
Tyler Johnston III pass intercepted Bryce Thompson return for 23 yds to the UAB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2FG4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1986% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 1:3514% → 15%
TENNDrive 4FG12 plays · 56 yds · 5:3985% → 86%
UABDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.1%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Austin Watkins for 6 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
85.1%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 5 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
85.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 26 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 9
OPP 37
-6
84.6%
Tyler Johnston III sacked by Darrell Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the Tenn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 26 yds · 1:4285% → 84%
Q1 1:42
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-7
85.3%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Jordan Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
84.5%
Tyler Johnston III pass intercepted Bryce Thompson return for 4 yds to the UAB 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8FG4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0085% → 85%
UABDrive 9FUMBLE2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.1%
Tyler Johnston III run for 1 yd to the UAB 30 Tyler Johnston III fumbled, forced by Darel Middleton, recovered by Tenn Aubrey SolomonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10TD6 plays · 30 yds · 1:5286% → 91%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
85.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 9 yds to the UAB 21Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+5
85.8%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Fitzgerald Mofor for a loss of 6 yards to the UAB 22 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, roughing passer (Garrett Marino) to the UAB 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+17
92.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 17 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
91.2%
Guarantano,J. pass incomplete to Jennings,J., PENALTY UAB pass interference (CASH, Grayson) 13 yards to the UT40, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+4
91.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 4 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13INT5 plays · 25 yds · 1:188% → 11%
TENNDrive 14TD7 plays · 43 yds · 3:2992% → 96%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
91.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 11 yds to the UAB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
91.8%
Guarantano,J. pass incomplete to Callaway,M., PENALTY UAB pass interference (TURNER, Dy'jonn) 15 yards to the UAB17, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+10
91.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 10 yds to the UAB 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.3%
Jauan Jennings run for 2 yds for a TD UAB Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 1:573% → 4%
Q2 1:10
4TH & 5
OWN 10
+10
96.4%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 41 , Marquez Callaway returns for 10 yds to the UAB 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16INT5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
97.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 5 yds to the UAB 36Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+7
96.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 7 yds to the UAB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+15
97.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 15 yds to the UAB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
97.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass intercepted, touchback. Dy'jonn Turner return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
95.9%
Paxton Brooks punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Myron Mitchell at the UAB 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
96.3%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 6 yds to the UAB 16Similar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
96.2%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Lucious Stanley for 15 yds to the UAB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
96.1%
Tyler Johnston III sacked by Shawn Shamburger for a loss of 9 yards to the UAB 28Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 19
OWN 28
-4
96.3%
Tyler Johnston III sacked by Aubrey Solomon for a loss of 4 yards to the UAB 24Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 23
OWN 24
+12
96.4%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 12 yds to the UAB 36Similar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
96.3%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20TD12 plays · 74 yds · 6:0797% → 100%
Q3 7:15
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+6
97.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Austin Pope for 6 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+18
97.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 18 yds Jauan Jennings fumbled, forced by Dy'jonn Turner, recovered by Tenn Jauan Jennings for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+23
97.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 23 yds to the UAB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eric Gray for 13 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 1:080% → 0%
TENNDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
99.8%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the Tenn 1 TENNESSEE Penalty, face mask (0 yards) (Austin Pope) to the Tenn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:33
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 25TD13 plays · 66 yds · 5:050% → 0%
Q4 5:32
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+14
100.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 14 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+9
100.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Kendall Parham for 9 yds to the Tenn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+15
99.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Lucious Stanley for 15 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26END OF GAME5 plays · 26 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
99.6%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Andrew Craig for 29 yds to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:36
Ty Chandler run for 11 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q2 3:08
Jauan Jennings run for 2 yds for a TD UAB Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+4.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:42
Timeout TENNESSEE, clock 06:42
-2.8