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MISS

Ole Miss 14 at Auburn 20

AUB
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:38 · Mac Brown punt for 46 yds, downed at the Aub 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Pregame prior+23.0Home team on offense+8.2Garbage-time factor+0.3Score differential+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:44: John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +8.8 pts (now 24%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:09: Bo Nix run for 1 yd for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +8.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:45: Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +22.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:32: Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Aub 27 — AUB win probability +10.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:00: OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 21 — MISS win probability +8.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 8MISS made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 12:23MISS 4th & 3 at AUB 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    13.3%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:31AUB 4th & 6 at MISS 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:23MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:09AUB 4th & 6 at MISS 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.4%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    84.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:14MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:28MISS 4th & 7 at AUB 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:44AUB 4th & 8 at MISS 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:02MISS 4th & 16 at MISS 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:03AUB 4th & 2 at MISS 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:50MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:38MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:06AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:09MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:15AUB 4th & 6 at MISS 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−4.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:28MISS 4th & 13 at AUB 46, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:20AUB 4th & 9 at MISS 41, up 13
    Close callPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    93.5%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:28MISS 4th & 4 at AUB 41, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%−0.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:56MISS 4th & 2 at AUB 5, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−0.8
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−3.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:14AUB 4th & 3 at MISS 31, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 2:34AUB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:44MISS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:09AUB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:45MISS Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:1712% → 12%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
88.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+11
88.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 11 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
88.2%
Plumlee, John Rhys rush for loss of 2 yards to the OLEMISS34, PENALTY AUBURN personal foul 15 yards to the AUBURN49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
88.1%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
88.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+3
87.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
87.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:3788% → 87%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
87.9%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+10
87.8%
Kam Martin run for 10 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
87.8%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
87.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Will HastingsSimilar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+16
87.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for 16 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
87.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+1
87.4%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+2
87.2%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+42
86.8%
Anders Carlson 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:5914% → 14%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
86.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+8
86.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+8
86.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Snoop Conner for 8 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
85.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+1
85.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 6:31
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
85.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
85.7%
Mac Brown punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the Aub 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4MISSED FG
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:1286% → 86%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
85.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+50
85.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 50 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
86.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Jay Jay WilsonSimilar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
86.3%
Anthony Schwartz run for 4 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
86.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
85.6%
Anders Carlson 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4115% → 15%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
85.2%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
85.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 4 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
85.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
85.3%
Mac Brown punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the Aub 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:5485% → 86%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
85.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 10 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
85.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 8 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+6
85.5%
D.J. Williams run for 6 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
85.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 15 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
85.6%
Bo Nix run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 38 Bo Nix fumbled, recovered by Miss Qaadir SheppardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2716% → 16%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
84.2%
Matt Corral run for 9 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+2
83.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
83.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
83.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
83.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
83.7%
Mac Brown punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the Aub 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:3784% → 83%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
84.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 9 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+9
84.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 9 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
84.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Will Hastings for 6 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+7
84.6%
Kam Martin run for 7 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
84.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 5 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+1
84.5%
Kam Martin run for 1 yd to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-4
84.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to D.J. Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
83.0%
Arryn Siposs punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2918% → 18%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
82.5%
Matt Corral run for 11 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
82.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 14 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-13
81.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the Miss 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 23
OWN 23
+11
82.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 11 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-4
81.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 16
OWN 30
+1
82.2%
Mac Brown punt for 45 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 4:5382% → 83%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
82.2%
Shaun Shivers run for 7 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+19
82.7%
Bo Nix run for 19 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
83.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
83.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 3 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+10
82.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kam Martin for 10 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
83.1%
D.J. Williams run for 3 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
82.9%
Shaun Shivers run for 4 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+5
82.1%
D.J. Williams run for 5 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
82.5%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Will HastingsSimilar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+15
82.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to D.J. Williams for 15 yds to the Miss 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
82.4%
D.J. Williams run for 3 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
82.9%
Harold Joiner run for 3 yds to the Miss 2 Harold Joiner fumbled, forced by Keidron Smith, recovered by Aub Prince Tega WanoghoSimilar
Q2 6:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
82.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Sal CannellaSimilar
Q2 6:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
83.0%
Anders Carlson 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0018% → 19%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
81.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+2
81.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+6
81.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 6 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
81.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
81.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+7
81.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
81.0%
Mac Brown punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:0682% → 89%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
81.5%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Aub 21Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+78
81.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Harold Joiner for 78 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.8%
D.J. Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:4113% → 12%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.4%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
87.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+6
87.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 6 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
87.8%
Mac Brown punt for 46 yds, downed at the Aub 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2787% → 86%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
86.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
86.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Will Hastings for 6 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
86.5%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+55
86.4%
Arryn Siposs punt for 44 yds , Elijah Moore returns for 55 yds to the Aub 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:1716% → 24%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
84.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+10
84.4%
Snoop Conner run for 10 yds to the Aub 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
75.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to D.J. Williams for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
14 plays · 54 yds · 4:2982% → 89%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
81.7%
D.J. Williams run for 6 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
81.9%
D.J. Williams run for 3 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+6
81.4%
D.J. Williams run for 6 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
81.7%
D.J. Williams run for 5 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
82.0%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+9
81.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 9 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
81.7%
D.J. Williams run for 9 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
81.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for no gain to the Miss 16Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
80.7%
D.J. Williams run for 2 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
81.4%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Miss 13Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+8
81.3%
Kam Martin run for 8 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+4
80.2%
D.J. Williams run for 4 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.5%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5113% → 12%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.0%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
87.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
88.0%
Mac Brown punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the Aub 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 4:3687% → 92%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
87.3%
D.J. Williams run for 2 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
87.2%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Sal CannellaSimilar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+18
86.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 3 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Qaadir Sheppard) to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
88.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Matthew Hill for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 7
50
+6
88.6%
D.J. Williams run for 6 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+5
88.3%
D.J. Williams run for 5 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
88.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 1 yd to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+8
88.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 8 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+6
88.4%
D.J. Williams run for 6 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
89.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
88.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+4
88.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 4 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
92.4%
Anders Carlson 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:349% → 8%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
90.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
90.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+16
90.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 16 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
89.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 46Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 13
OPP 46
0
90.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Miles BattleSimilar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 13
OPP 46
0
91.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Aub 46Similar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
92.2%
Mac Brown punt for 43 yds, downed at the Aub 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:4893% → 95%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
92.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 6 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+5
92.9%
D.J. Williams run for 5 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+31
94.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for 31 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
94.8%
D.J. Williams run for 2 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
95.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 5 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+6
94.9%
D.J. Williams run for 6 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
95.3%
D.J. Williams run for 2 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
95.3%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 6
OPP 38
-3
95.6%
Bo Nix sacked by Quentin Bivens for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
95.2%
Arryn Siposs punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
15 plays · 91 yds · 5:227% → 29%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
92.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the Miss 9 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
92.8%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+1
92.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 1 yd to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+25
93.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Snoop Conner for 25 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
91.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+9
91.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 9 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-1
91.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+8
92.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
91.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+16
91.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Daniel Thomas) to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
91.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
91.3%
Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Aub 7Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+2
92.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+4
93.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Aub 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.6%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23MISSED FG
16 plays · 44 yds · 4:1888% → 95%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.1%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
88.5%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
87.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 11 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
89.8%
D.J. Williams run for 2 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+11
90.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 11 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-1
91.1%
Bo Nix run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+11
92.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 11 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
94.1%
D.J. Williams run for 2 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+4
94.3%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+1
94.9%
D.J. Williams run for 1 yd to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+49
95.4%
Anders Carlson 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24Uncategorized
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:4313% → 19%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
87.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 21Similar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+17
88.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 17 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+20
85.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 20 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
83.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Tylan Knight for 4 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+3
81.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Tylan Knight for 3 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
81.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:45
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)
-22.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+18.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:32
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Aub 27
+10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com