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MSST

Mississippi State 54 at Arkansas 24

ARK
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:59 · Sam Loy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Zuber at the MisSt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Home team on offense−33.0Score differential−16.5Pregame prior−10.7Garbage-time factor−7.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:31: Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 33 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +3.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:24: Rakeem Boyd run for 52 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +6.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:55: Kylin Hill run for 2 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +7.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:42: Kylin Hill run for 1 yd for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +8.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:59: Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD Marcus Murphy return for 32 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +8.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:08ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:52MSST 4th & 1 at ARK 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.1%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:31ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:04MSST 4th & 3 at ARK 8, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.7%−0.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−6.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:04ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:37MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 10, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:55ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:00ARK 4th & 9 at MSST 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:59ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 47, down 28
    Close callPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:14MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 24, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:03ARK 4th & 8 at MSST 11, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:40MSST 4th & 11 at ARK 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:11MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:31MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:24ARK Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:55MSST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:42MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:59MSST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:33MSST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:03ARK Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:47ARK Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:22MSST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:4969% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
30.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 13Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+1
30.8%
Tommy Stevens run for 1 yd to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 14
+15
30.8%
Tommy Stevens run for 15 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
30.8%
Tommy Stevens run for 6 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+62
30.8%
Kylin Hill run for 62 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
30.8%
Tommy Stevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 4Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
30.9%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:0331% → 31%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+22
31.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 22 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
31.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
31.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete, broken up by Cameron DantzlerSimilar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
31.3%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
31.1%
Sam Loy punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:2169% → 73%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
31.2%
Tommy Stevens run for 11 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
31.0%
Tommy Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
31.1%
Tommy Stevens run for 6 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+8
30.9%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 8 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
30.8%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 5
50
+2
30.7%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+5
30.8%
Tommy Stevens rush for 4 yards to the AR44 (De'Jon Harris;McTelvin Agim), PENALTY AR offside defense (Jamario Bell) 5 yards to the AR43, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
30.7%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
30.7%
Tommy Stevens run for 5 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+4
30.8%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+1
30.9%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
27.4%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 33 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
28.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+1
28.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
28.3%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
28.3%
Sam Loy punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:5573% → 78%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
27.5%
Nick Gibson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+7
27.3%
Nick Gibson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
27.0%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 17 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
27.0%
Tommy Stevens run for 8 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+3
26.9%
Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
26.9%
Tommy Stevens run for 6 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+12
26.9%
Kylin Hill run for 12 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
26.9%
Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
25.2%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+4
25.3%
Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds to the Ark 8Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+26
22.0%
Jace Christmann 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.1%
N/A run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
24.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Tyson Morris for 8 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
24.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Tyson Morris, broken up by Brian Cole IISimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
24.1%
Sam Loy punt for 59 yds, downed at the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
21.5%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
21.6%
Tommy Stevens run for no gain to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 8
OWN 10
0
21.8%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry, broken up by Jarques McClellionSimilar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 8
OWN 10
+50
22.0%
Tucker Day punt for 50 yds , Treylon Burks returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8TD
2 plays · 61 yds · 0:5724% → 30%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
23.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Knox for 9 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+52
30.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for 52 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2971% → 81%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
29.5%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+37
28.9%
Kylin Hill run for 37 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+27
28.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 27 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
28.0%
Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
28.0%
Tommy Stevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 2Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
18.9%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
22.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 23 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
23.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-2
23.1%
A'Montae Spivey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
22.6%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
22.3%
Sam Loy punt for 32 yds , Malik Dear returns for no gain to the MisSt 23 Malik Dear fumbled, recovered by Ark Jordan SilverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5623% → 23%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
23.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
23.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
22.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Tyson Morris, broken up by Chauncey RiversSimilar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
23.4%
Connor Limpert 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
6 plays · 84 yds · 2:1878% → 88%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+58
21.9%
Kylin Hill run for 58 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
20.5%
Nick Gibson run for 21 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
20.5%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
20.5%
Tommy Stevens run for no gain to the Ark 1Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.9%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13INT TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4314% → 6%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
14.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Mike Woods for 4 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
14.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Mike Woods, broken up by Marcus MurphySimilar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+32
6.1%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD Marcus Murphy return for 32 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
6.5%
John Stephen Jones pass complete to Chase Harrell for 6 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
5.6%
John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Chase HarrellSimilar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
5.5%
John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Mike Woods, broken up by Martin EmersonSimilar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
5.5%
Sam Loy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Zuber at the MisSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1790% → 91%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
9.8%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for 1 yd to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+5
9.9%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+1
10.3%
Nick Gibson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
8.7%
Tucker Day punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Treylon Burks at the Ark 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
3.2%
John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
3.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for 9 yds to the Ark 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
6.8%
Treylon Burks run for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
6.3%
Greg Brooks Jr. run for no gain to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
6.3%
John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
6.3%
Sam Loy punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Zuber at the MisSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 3:0994% → 98%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
6.1%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 3
OWN 41
-2
5.4%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+42
6.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 42 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
5.6%
Tommy Stevens run for 12 yds to the Ark 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
5.5%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for 3 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
15 plays · 59 yds · 6:303% → 2%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
2.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+10
2.4%
John Stephen Jones pass complete to Tyson Morris for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 1
50
+6
2.7%
Rakeem Boyd run for 6 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
2.7%
John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
2.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+13
2.6%
J.S. Jones pass incomplete to Trey Knox, PENALTY MS pass interference (Cam Dantzler) 13 yards to the MS28, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
2.8%
Treylon Burks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+3
2.8%
John Stephen Jones run for 3 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+8
2.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 8 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
2.8%
John Stephen Jones run for no gain to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
2.8%
Treylon Burks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 6
OPP 9
-2
2.6%
John Stephen Jones pass complete to Hudson Henry for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 11Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+11
1.7%
John Stephen Jones pass complete to Mike Woods for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20FG
15 plays · 47 yds · 7:2398% → 99%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
2.0%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
2.0%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
2.0%
Isaiah Zuber run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+7
2.0%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Austin Williams for 7 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+8
2.0%
Kylin Hill run for 8 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
1.9%
Tommy Stevens run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
50
0
0.7%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
50
+11
0.7%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Austin Williams for 11 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
0.7%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+5
0.6%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
0.6%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-5
0.6%
Tommy Stevens rush for 1 yard to the AR22, PENALTY MS illegal forward pass (Tommy Stevens) 5 yards to the AR28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
0.7%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+46
0.6%
Jace Christmann 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:530% → 2%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
0.3%
K.J. Jefferson run for 21 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
0.3%
Rakeem Boyd run for 17 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+32
0.4%
K.J. Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 32 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
2.3%
K.J. Jefferson run for 5 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2599% → 100%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
1.5%
Nick Gibson run for 28 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
1.3%
Nick Gibson run for no gain to the Ark 47Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+47
0.2%
Nick Gibson run for 47 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23FUMBLE
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
0.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+5
0.2%
A'Montae Spivey run for 5 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
0.2%
K.J. Jefferson pass incomplete to A'Montae SpiveySimilar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+11
0.2%
A'Montae Spivey run for 11 yds to the MisSt 38 A'Montae Spivey fumbled, forced by Martin Emerson, recovered by MisSt Willie Gay Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24END OF GAME
12 plays · 49 yds · 5:34100% → 100%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
0.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Brad Cumbest for 8 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
0.2%
Lee Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
0.2%
Lee Witherspoon run for 9 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+9
0.2%
Lee Witherspoon run for 9 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
0.2%
Lee Witherspoon run for 1 yd to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+8
0.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Brad Cumbest for 8 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+3
0.2%
Lee Witherspoon run for 3 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
0.2%
Malik Dear run for 2 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+2
0.1%
Malik Dear run for 2 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+8
0.1%
Logan Burnett pass complete to Malik Dear for 8 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:42
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
-8.6
TD · Q2 1:59
Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD Marcus Murphy return for 32 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
-8.1
TD · Q2 7:55
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com