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AUB

Auburn 20 at LSU 23

LSU
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:24 · Arryn Siposs punt for 44 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for no gain to the LSU 22 Derek Stingley Jr. fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Dinson, recovered by Aub Jamien Sherwood
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 80Pregame prior+20.5Home team on offense+1.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score differential+0.3Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:06: Bo Nix run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +8.8 pts (now 35%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:33: Cade York 20 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:58: Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds for a TD, (Cade York PAT MISSED) — LSU win probability +11.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:29: Joe Burrow run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:32: Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 5 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +25.4 pts (now 31%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9AUB made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 12:46LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:39AUB 4th & 12 at LSU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:00LSU 4th & 15 at AUB 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    73.5%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:02AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 40, up 3
    Close callPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:25AUB 4th & 14 at AUB 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:55LSU 4th & 1 at AUB 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.7%−1.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:24AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:06AUB 4th & 1 at LSU 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    25.3%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:33LSU 4th & 1 at AUB 2, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    60% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.0%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−8.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:50LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:42AUB 4th & 6 at LSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−8.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:36LSU 4th & 2 at AUB 2, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−2.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−13.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:11AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−4.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:53AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−1.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:52AUB 4th & 13 at AUB 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−4.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:48AUB 4th & 23 at AUB 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:48LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:08AUB 4th & 24 at AUB 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:27LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 28, up 10
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:26AUB 4th & 24 at AUB 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:26LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 12:28LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:06AUB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:58LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:29LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:32AUB Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.5 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%−2.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:4318% → 18%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
82.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 11 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
81.9%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
81.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
81.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0982% → 81%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
81.7%
Joe Burrow sacked by Owen Pappoe for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 11Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+8
81.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 8 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 3
OWN 19
0
81.3%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q1 12:46
4TH & 3
OWN 19
+35
81.3%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the AUBURN 36 LSU Penalty, Defensive Holding (K'Lavon Chaisson) to the Aub 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3FG
19 plays · 42 yds · 3:5719% → 20%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
81.2%
D.J. Williams run for 1 yd to the Aub 47Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
81.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Sal Cannella, broken up by Kary Vincent Jr.Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-5
81.1%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Prince Tega Wanogho) to the Aub 42Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 14
OWN 42
+18
81.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 18 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
80.8%
D.J. Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 39Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+7
80.7%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Williams, D.J., PENALTY LSU pass interference (Queen, Patrick) 7 yards to the LSU32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
80.5%
Shaun Shivers run for 5 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
80.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+10
80.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 10 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
80.2%
Bo Nix pass incomplete, broken up by Glen LoganSimilar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
80.1%
D.J. Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+5
80.1%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Williams, Seth, PENALTY LSU offside (Chaisson, K'Lavon) 5 yards to the LSU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+1
80.1%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the LSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
79.8%
Bo Nix run for no gain to the LSU 7Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
79.5%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick Jackson, broken up by Kristian FultonSimilar
Q1 8:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
79.6%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Jack Driscoll) to the LSU 12Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
79.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
79.7%
Anders Carlson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
15 plays · 41 yds · 5:3279% → 76%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
79.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 6 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
79.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 10 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
79.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 8 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+5
79.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 5 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
79.4%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Jefferson, Justin, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Davis, Javaris) 4 yards to the AUBURN39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
79.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 7 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+2
79.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 2 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+1
78.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-6
79.1%
Joe Burrow sacked by K.J. Britt for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 16
OPP 35
+4
78.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 4 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 12
OPP 31
-5
77.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Lloyd Cushenberry III) to the Aub 36Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 17
OPP 36
+2
77.3%
Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 15
OPP 34
0
76.4%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5023% → 24%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
77.2%
Shaun Shivers run for 13 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
76.5%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+1
75.9%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-5
76.1%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Marquel Harrell) to the Aub 32Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+8
76.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to D.J. Williams for 8 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
76.0%
Arryn Siposs punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 3:2576% → 80%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-9
75.7%
Joe Burrow sacked by Derrick Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 2Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 19
OWN 2
+7
75.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 7 yds to the LSU 9Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 12
OWN 9
+14
74.4%
Joe Burrow run for 14 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
75.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 22Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+6
74.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 6 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+6
74.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 6 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
74.5%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+19
74.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 19 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+27
75.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 27 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
79.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 20 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5322% → 22%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-11
77.7%
Bo Nix sacked by Jacob Phillips for a loss of 11 yards to the Aub 14 Bo Nix fumbled, recovered by Aub AUBURN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Bo Nix) to the Aub 14Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+7
77.8%
D.J. Williams run for 7 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
78.1%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
78.4%
Arryn Siposs punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:2578% → 79%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
78.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
78.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+5
78.3%
Joe Burrow run for 5 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
79.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 13 yds to the AUBURN 45 LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tyrion Davis-Price) to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+22
78.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 7 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
79.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 9 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
79.3%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Racey McMathSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
78.8%
Joe Burrow run for no gain to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
78.8%
Joe Burrow run for no gain to the Aub 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2623% → 22%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
77.2%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
77.6%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Marquel Harrell) to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 15
OWN 24
-1
77.8%
D.J. Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 16
OWN 23
+11
78.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Malik Miller for 11 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
77.8%
Arryn Siposs punt for 44 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for no gain to the LSU 22 Derek Stingley Jr. fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Dinson, recovered by Aub Jamien SherwoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10TD
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:1126% → 35%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
74.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 1 yd to the LSU 21Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+6
73.9%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+6
74.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 6 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
73.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 5 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
73.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.1%
D.J. Williams run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 3:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.3%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11FG
14 plays · 73 yds · 2:2567% → 73%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
67.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 13 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
68.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 8 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-2
69.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+7
67.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 7 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
69.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 13 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
69.2%
Burrow, Joe pass sacked for loss of 7 yards to the AUBURN43 (Truesdell, Tyrone), PENALTY AUBURN offside (Moultry, T.D.) 5 yards to the AUBURN31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 5
OPP 22
+20
70.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 9 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (11 yards) (Smoke Monday) to the Aub 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
70.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
70.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+9
66.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 9 yds to the Aub 2Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+20
72.7%
Cade York 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12INT
4 plays · 41 yds · 0:0931% → 37%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+41
68.6%
D.J. Williams run for 41 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
63.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
63.4%
Bo Nix pass intercepted Derek Stingley Jr. return for no gain to the LSU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
70.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:0472% → 71%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
72.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 12 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
73.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 4 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
74.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, broken up by Jamien SherwoodSimilar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
72.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q3 13:50
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
70.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the Aub 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15FG
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:4832% → 37%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+70
68.0%
D.J. Williams run for 70 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
64.6%
D.J. Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 8Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
64.2%
Joey Gatewood run for 2 yds to the LSU 6Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
65.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
62.7%
Anders Carlson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 74 yds · 2:5664% → 65%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
64.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 13 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
65.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
67.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 5 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+45
67.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 45 yds to the Aub 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
69.1%
Edwards-Helaire, Clyde rush for 4 yards to the AUBURN2, PENALTY AUBURN offside (Puckett, Zion) 3 yards to the AUBURN3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
69.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the Aub 2Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
68.8%
Joe Burrow run for 1 yd to the Aub 1Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
66.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 2Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
64.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 1 yd to the Aub 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1839% → 37%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
61.1%
D.J. Williams run for no gain to the Aub 1Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
61.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+1
62.0%
D.J. Williams run for 1 yd to the Aub 2Similar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 9
OWN 2
0
62.6%
Arryn Siposs punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the Aub 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:3166% → 67%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
65.9%
Joe Burrow run for 5 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+7
67.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 7 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
67.4%
Joe Burrow pass intercepted Roger McCreary return for no gain to the Aub 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3740% → 38%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
59.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for 4 yds to the Aub 6Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 5
OWN 6
0
59.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Sal Cannella, broken up by Grant DelpitSimilar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
60.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+7
61.8%
Arryn Siposs punt for 46 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for 7 yds to the Aub 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 0:4865% → 78%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
65.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 22 yds to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
67.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 12 yds to the Aub 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
66.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the Aub 6Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
78.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds for a TD, (Cade York PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5828% → 24%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.3%
D.J. Williams run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
72.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
73.5%
Bo Nix sacked by Michael Divinity Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
75.7%
Arryn Siposs punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:1574% → 90%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
74.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 7 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 3
OWN 40
-5
76.0%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 35Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
73.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 35Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+10
72.8%
Joe Burrow run for 10 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
75.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+21
76.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 21 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
78.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+6
77.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 6 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q4 14:35
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+6
79.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
80.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the Aub 12Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+5
80.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 5 yds to the Aub 7Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+7
89.7%
Joe Burrow run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:2412% → 10%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
88.2%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Williams, Seth, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Stevens, JaCoby) 15 yards to the LSU48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-20
86.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 20 yards to the Aub 32 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Aub Bo NixSimilar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 30
OWN 32
+3
89.5%
Bo Nix run for 3 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 27
OWN 35
+4
90.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 4 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 23
OWN 39
0
90.5%
Arryn Siposs punt for 55 yds, downed at the LSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:5289% → 91%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+26
89.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 26 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
89.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 33Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+7
89.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 7 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+1
89.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 1
OWN 41
-5
90.2%
LSU Penalty, False Start (JaCoby Stevens) to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+3
90.5%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 31 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 3 yds to the Aub 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3310% → 8%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
90.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to D.J. Williams for 13 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
89.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-14
90.7%
Bo Nix sacked by Damone Clark for a loss of 14 yards to the Aub 35 AUBURN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Bo Nix) to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 24
OWN 35
0
92.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to John Samuel ShenkerSimilar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 24
OWN 35
0
92.1%
Arryn Siposs punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3792% → 91%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
91.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
91.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
91.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+55
90.5%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Will Hastings at the AUBURN 27 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chandler Wooten) to the Aub 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 27PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 2:558% → 6%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
92.1%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
92.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shaun ShiversSimilar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+5
93.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for 5 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
92.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-5
93.1%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Seth Williams) to the Aub 22Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+34
93.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 34 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
91.3%
Malik Miller run for 1 yd to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-15
91.2%
Nix, Bo pass complete to Williams, D.J. for 27 yards to the LSU16, PENALTY AUBURN illegal block (Cannella, Sal) 15 yards to the AUBURN42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 24
OWN 42
0
93.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 24
OWN 42
0
93.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Jay Jay WilsonSimilar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 24
OWN 42
0
93.9%
Arryn Siposs punt for 54 yds, downed at the LSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5593% → 95%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
93.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 4Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+1
93.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 5Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 9
OWN 5
+3
93.7%
Joe Burrow run for 3 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 6
OWN 8
0
94.6%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 29TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 0:476% → 31%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
94.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 11 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
95.4%
D.J. Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+16
95.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 16 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
94.8%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Williams, Seth, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Stingley Jr., Derek) 15 yards to the LSU5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q4 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
69.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 5 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 30END OF GAME
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:5389% → 94%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
89.4%
Edwards-Helaire, Clyde rush for 13 yards to the AUBURN39, PENALTY LSU holding (Lewis, Damien) 10 yards to the LSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+6
88.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 14
OWN 44
0
91.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 14
OWN 44
-1
93.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:32
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 5 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
-25.4
TD · Q3 4:58
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds for a TD, (Cade York PAT MISSED)
+11.6
TD · Q4 13:29
Joe Burrow run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com