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LSU

LSU 36 at Mississippi State 13

MSST
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 12:27: Cade York 23 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:24: Garrett Shrader run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +7.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:07: Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 60 yds for a TD, (Cade York PAT MISSED) — LSU win probability +8.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:50: Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 8 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:36: Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 37 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:09MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:52LSU 4th & 3 at MSST 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.5%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:02MSST 4th & 15 at LSU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:27LSU 4th & 5 at MSST 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    77.9%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:33LSU 4th & 7 at MSST 7, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:28LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 25, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:03MSST 4th & 16 at MSST 30, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:28MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 30, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:40LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 48, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:19MSST 4th & 9 at LSU 23, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:31LSU 4th & 16 at LSU 17, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:56MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 24, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:51LSU 4th & 4 at MSST 44, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:59MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 5, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:41LSU 4th & 11 at LSU 48, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 5:24MSST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:07LSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:50LSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:36LSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:36LSU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:59MSST Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:439% → 10%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
9.0%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
9.0%
Garrett Shrader run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
9.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 4 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
9.3%
Deddrick Thomas run for 5 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
9.8%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
10.1%
Garrett Shrader run for no gain to the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 4:0990% → 88%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
10.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 2 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+1
10.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+19
10.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 19 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
10.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 7 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+2
10.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+2
10.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
11.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 6 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+4
11.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
11.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q1 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
11.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 3Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
11.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q1 7:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
11.6%
Cade York 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
15 plays · 30 yds · 6:3312% → 14%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.7%
Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
11.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 10 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
12.1%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
12.3%
Garrett Shrader run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+8
12.3%
Garrett Shrader run for 8 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
13.2%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+5
13.6%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
13.7%
Garrett Shrader run for 3 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
14.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 25
OWN 45
0
13.7%
Garrett Shrader pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 25
OWN 45
+2
13.7%
Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 23
OWN 47
+8
13.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 8 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
13.8%
Tucker Day punt for 34 yds, downed at the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4FG
10 plays · 84 yds · 3:2186% → 87%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
14.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 11 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
14.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 8 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 2
OWN 30
0
14.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+17
14.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 17 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+24
14.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 24 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
13.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 22 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
14.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q2 13:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
14.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
14.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q2 12:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
13.5%
Cade York 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:3314% → 15%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
14.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Nick Gibson for 24 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
15.3%
Nick Gibson run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 44 Nick Gibson fumbled, recovered by LSUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6FG
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:5787% → 86%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
13.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
13.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+17
13.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 8 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the MisSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-6
13.5%
Joe Burrow sacked by Leo Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 16Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
-1
13.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 17Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+10
14.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 10 yds to the MisSt 7Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
13.8%
Cade York 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5713% → 23%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
13.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 18 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
13.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Farrod Green for 11 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
15.2%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+17
15.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 17 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
15.3%
Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+13
15.6%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (JaCoby Stevens) to the LSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
23.3%
Garrett Shrader run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
12.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 60 yds for a TD, (Cade York PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9INT
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:0014% → 14%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.6%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
13.8%
Garrett Shrader run for 6 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
14.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Tyre Phillips) to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
13.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 15 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
15.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 15
OWN 39
0
14.3%
Garrett Shrader run for no gain to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 15
OWN 39
0
14.3%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Kylin HillSimilar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+24
13.7%
Garrett Shrader pass intercepted JaCoby Stevens return for 9 yds to the LSU 48 LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the LSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 0:5487% → 92%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
12.7%
Joe Burrow run for 11 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
12.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 16 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
12.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 6 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+14
12.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 14 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
7.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 8 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0810% → 11%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
10.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Kylin Hill for 5 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
10.6%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2690% → 90%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.9%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
9.9%
Joe Burrow sacked by Chauncey Rivers and Cameron Dantzler for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 18 Joe Burrow fumbled, recovered by LSUSimilar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+7
9.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 7 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+7
9.8%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 46 yds , Malik Dear returns for 7 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0211% → 10%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
11.3%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
10.8%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-5
10.5%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Michael Divinity Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 12:03
4TH & 16
OWN 30
+2
10.4%
Tucker Day punt for 38 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for 2 yds to the LSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:0991% → 96%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
8.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 6 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
8.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
8.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 18 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
4.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 37 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:525% → 4%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
5.1%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
5.0%
Garrett Shrader run for 3 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
4.8%
Garrett Shrader sacked by JaCoby Stevens for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
3.6%
Tucker Day punt for 70 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:3697% → 99%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
3.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 15 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
3.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 9 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+19
2.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 19 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
2.2%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Sullivan, Stephen, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Emerson, Martin) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
2.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 5 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+7
1.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 7 yds to the MisSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
1.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 7 yds to the MisSt 3Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
1.7%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Tory Carter) to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+18
0.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 18 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17INT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:342% → 1%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
2.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+19
1.4%
Garrett Shrader run for 4 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
1.4%
Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+5
1.3%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
1.4%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
1.2%
Garrett Shrader pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
1.2%
Garrett Shrader pass intercepted Kristian Fulton return for no gain to the LSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1199% → 99%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
0.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 9 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
0.8%
John Emery Jr. run for no gain to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-1
0.8%
John Emery Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 48Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
0.8%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 57 yds · 3:041% → 1%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
1.0%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 29 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
1.1%
Kylin Hill run for 11 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
1.1%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 16 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
1.2%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 16
OPP 30
0
0.6%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 16
OPP 30
+7
0.6%
Garrett Shrader run for 7 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q4 13:19
4TH & 9
OPP 23
0
0.5%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-9
0.4%
Joe Burrow sacked by Chauncey Rivers for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 14Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 19
OWN 14
+3
0.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 3 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 16
OWN 17
0
0.3%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 16
OWN 17
-4
0.3%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 57 yds , Malik Dear returns for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:270% → 0%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
0.3%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-13
0.3%
Shrader, Garrett pass incomplete to Gardner, Cameron, dropped pass, PENALTY MISSSTATE face mask 13 yards to the MISSSTATE13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 19
OWN 13
+11
0.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 11 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+5
0.2%
Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 3
OWN 29
-5
0.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (JaVonta Payton) to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
0.2%
Tucker Day punt for 26 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
50
0
0.2%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Racey McMathSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
50
+6
0.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
0.2%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Trey PalmerSimilar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
0.2%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 36 yds, downed at the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
0.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-4 Yards) to the MisSt 4Similar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 14
OWN 4
-2
0.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-2 Yards) to the MisSt 2Similar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 16
OWN 2
-1
0.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Tyre Phillips) to the MisSt 1Similar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 17
OWN 1
+3
0.2%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 4Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+1
0.2%
Nick Gibson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 5Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 13
OWN 5
0
0.1%
Garrett Shrader pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:59
4TH & 13
OWN 5
0
0.1%
Tucker Day punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
0.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+4
0.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-7
0.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 42 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
0.1%
Myles Brennan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
0.1%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 2:220% → 1%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
0.1%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 12 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
0.1%
Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+13
0.1%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 13 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.1%
Garrett Shrader pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
0.1%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
0.1%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 17 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
0.1%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 4 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+24
0.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 24 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:41100% → 100%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 13Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 12
OWN 13
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:07
Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 60 yds for a TD, (Cade York PAT MISSED)
-8.2
TD · Q2 5:24
Garrett Shrader run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q2 0:50
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 8 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)
-4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com