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TA&M

Texas A&M 24 at Ole Miss 17

MISS
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+12.1MISS 18.4%Luke Logan 35 yd FG GOODAWAY 24 - HOME 17 · Q4 0:26
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:26 · Luke Logan 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 177Pregame prior−0.2Home team on offense−18.7Garbage-time factor−14.3Score differential−2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:38: Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 18 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +13.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:30: Snoop Conner run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +13.5 pts (now 53%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:37: Buddy Johnson 62 Yd Fumble Return (Seth Small Kick) — TA&M win probability +17.0 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 2:34: Isaiah Spiller run for 22 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +14.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:21: Logan, Luke Kickoff 41 yards to TexAM24, Onside kick, Recovered by TexAM on TexAM24, PENALTY OLE MISS, Illegal Batting 10 yards to TexAM34. — TA&M win probability +12.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 12TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:10TA&M 4th & 13 at TA&M 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:49MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:04TA&M 4th & 2 at MISS 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:08TA&M 4th & 4 at MISS 33, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.7%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:15MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:24MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:04MISS 4th & 8 at TA&M 40, up 4
    Close callPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:55MISS 4th & 18 at TA&M 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:16TA&M 4th & 14 at TA&M 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−3.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:27MISS 4th & 1 at TA&M 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.4%−6.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−4.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:35MISS 4th & 18 at TA&M 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−4.7
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−11.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:46TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 27, up 3
    Close callPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:25TA&M 4th & 11 at MISS 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−3.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−17.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:50MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 43, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%−2.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:11TA&M 4th & 5 at TA&M 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−1.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:31MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 4, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:24MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 31, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:50MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 47, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:26MISS 4th & 1 at TA&M 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.4
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:22MISS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:38TA&M Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:30MISS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:37TA&M Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:34TA&M Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2972% → 71%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
28.5%
Kellen Mond sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 17Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+5
29.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 5 yds to the TexAM 22Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
29.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney DavisSimilar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
29.3%
Braden Mann punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0529% → 30%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
29.4%
Scottie Phillips run for 6 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+1
29.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+2
29.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+45
29.7%
Mac Brown punt for 45 yds , Ainias Smith returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3FG
11 plays · 73 yds · 5:2770% → 69%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
30.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 16 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
30.0%
Quartney Davis run for 15 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
29.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+22
30.2%
Kellen Mond run for 22 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
30.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Kenyon Green) to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+8
30.5%
Kellen Mond run for 8 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+8
30.5%
Isaiah Spiller run for 8 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
30.7%
Kellen Mond run for 5 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+1
30.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the Miss 8Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+2
31.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 2 yds to the Miss 6Similar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+24
31.4%
Seth Small 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2531% → 34%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.4%
Dannis Jackson run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
31.6%
Plumlee, John Rhys pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference 3 yards to the OLEMISS31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
34.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 69 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:5366% → 65%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
34.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the TexAM 18Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+29
35.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 29 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
34.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 14 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
34.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the Miss 38Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
34.4%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+5
34.5%
Kellen Mond run for 5 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 2:08
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+51
35.4%
Seth Small 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3636% → 36%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
36.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
36.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
36.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Miles BattleSimilar
Q1 1:15
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+34
35.9%
Mac Brown punt for 44 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 34 yds to the Miss 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
35.1%
Kellen Mond pass intercepted Austrian Robinson return for no gain to the Miss 47 OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the Miss 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:1037% → 37%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
36.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 10 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
38.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-1
38.4%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 14:32
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
37.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:24
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
37.0%
Mac Brown punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:5162% → 60%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
37.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 9 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+3
37.8%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
38.5%
Kellen Mond sacked by Jalen Julius for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 20Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
39.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for no gain to the TexAM 20Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 11
OWN 20
-10
40.4%
Kellen Mond sacked by Charles Wiley for a loss of 10 yards to the TexAM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:4941% → 40%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
41.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
41.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
41.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
41.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 8
OPP 40
+17
40.3%
Mac Brown punt for 32 yds, downed at the TexAM 8 OLE MISS Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the TexAM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:0560% → 59%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
40.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 9 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+3
39.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
40.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for 7 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+3
39.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
40.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
40.3%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
40.9%
Kellen Mond pass intercepted Donta Evans return for no gain to the Miss 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12MISSED FG
12 plays · 29 yds · 4:3545% → 46%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
44.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
50
-2
46.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+1
45.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+16
44.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 16 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
47.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 2 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+8
48.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
48.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the TexAM 25Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-4
49.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the TexAM 19 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexAM 29Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 14
OPP 29
-4
48.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 33Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 18
OPP 33
0
47.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 18
OPP 33
+50
45.5%
Luke Logan 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 0:5755% → 69%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
44.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 18 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
42.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 14 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
40.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 15 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
40.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
40.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 2 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+18
30.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 18 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:3135% → 39%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
35.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 16 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
37.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
38.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+7
37.5%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
38.9%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:0937% → 53%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+38
37.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 38 yds to the TexAM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
41.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jason Pellerin for 3 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
41.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+22
39.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Scottie Phillips for 22 yds to the TexAM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.4%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 1:5951% → 47%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
48.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexAM 15Similar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+6
49.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 6 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
50.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexAM 26Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
49.6%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
51.0%
Kellen Mond sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 21Similar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+6
52.8%
Braden Mann punt for 55 yds , Elijah Moore returns for 6 yds to the Miss 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17FUMBLE RETURN TD
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:2154% → 44%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
54.1%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
53.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+15
52.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Elijah Blades) to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
56.9%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+6
57.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+8
57.9%
Snoop Conner run for 8 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
59.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+9
59.4%
Scottie Phillips run for 9 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
60.8%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-62
43.8%
Buddy Johnson 62 Yd Fumble Return (Seth Small Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18MISSED FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 4:4038% → 38%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.0%
Tylan Knight run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
38.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
37.4%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
41.7%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
40.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
42.5%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the TexAM 46Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+36
40.2%
Snoop Conner run for 36 yds to the TexAM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
44.8%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the TexAM 10Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
45.0%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the TexAM 10Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-8
43.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 18Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
+35
37.5%
Luke Logan 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Justin MadubuikeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0964% → 61%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
36.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the TexAM 20Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
36.7%
Kellen Mond run for 7 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
36.5%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
39.1%
Braden Mann punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20INT
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:1439% → 40%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
39.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 14 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
40.2%
Matt Corral pass intercepted Clifford Chattman return for no gain to the TexAM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21MISSED FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 4:3664% → 67%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
35.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 11 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
33.6%
Kellen Mond run for 7 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+5
32.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
33.0%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
32.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 4 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+15
31.0%
Kellen Mond run for 15 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
30.3%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+11
30.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 11 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
30.2%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
30.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+3
28.5%
Kellen Mond run for 3 yds to the Miss 11Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
29.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
Q4 10:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
32.6%
Seth Small 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:1938% → 40%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
38.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 15 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
39.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 9 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-1
43.2%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
41.7%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+27
39.9%
Mac Brown punt for 45 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 27 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1971% → 69%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
28.9%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 4 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+1
28.6%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 1 yd to the TexAM 44Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
28.0%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
31.3%
Braden Mann punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3437% → 33%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
36.5%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+3
36.0%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 7
OWN 4
0
34.3%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+5
32.8%
Mac Brown punt for 56 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 5 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:2776% → 95%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
24.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 7 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+6
23.2%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 6 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-6
23.3%
Quartney Davis run for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 16
OPP 48
+10
24.4%
Kellen Mond run for 10 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+12
22.2%
Kellen Mond run for 12 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
19.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 4 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+22
4.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 22 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26END OF GAME
21 plays · 65 yds · 2:177% → 6%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+20
6.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 20 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-11
6.6%
Matt Corral sacked by Andre White Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 21
OWN 25
+6
4.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 15
OWN 31
0
4.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 15
OWN 31
+16
4.1%
Matt Corral run for 16 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-12
4.9%
Matt Corral sacked by Tyree Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 40 OLE MISS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-5 Yards) to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 22
OWN 35
+12
4.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 12 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
4.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+13
4.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 13 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
5.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 13 yds to the TexAM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
7.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
7.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 9 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
6.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for no gain to the TexAM 18Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+35
18.4%
Luke Logan 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
5.5%
Logan, Luke Kickoff 41 yards to TexAM24, Onside kick, Recovered by TexAM on TexAM24, PENALTY OLE MISS, Illegal Batting 10 yards to TexAM34.Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-1
5.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 32Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 12
OWN 32
-1
5.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:37
Buddy Johnson 62 Yd Fumble Return (Seth Small Kick)
-17
TD · Q4 2:34
Isaiah Spiller run for 22 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)
-14.3
TD · Q3 13:30
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
+13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com