Try the model
AUB

Auburn 51 at Arkansas 10

ARK
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Razorback Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:24 · Sam Loy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Will Hastings at the Aub 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Pregame prior−10.1Home team on offense−51.8Score differential−35.5Garbage-time factor−16.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 0:51: Anders Carlson 44 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +1.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:19: Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 48 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +5.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:57: Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 28 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:14: Cheyenne O'Grady 45 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Connor Limpert Kick) — ARK win probability +2.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:54: Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 15 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson PAT MISSED) — AUB win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 9 of 11AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:45ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:02ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:26AUB 4th & 1 at ARK 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:23ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:51AUB 4th & 2 at ARK 26, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%−0.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:27ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 41, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:34AUB 4th & 14 at ARK 29, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:06ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.2%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:32ARK 4th & 6 at AUB 43, down 17
    Close callPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:40AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 15, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00ARK 4th & 7 at AUB 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−2.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:23AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 41, up 17
    Close callPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:53ARK 4th & 8 at AUB 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−4.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:06ARK 4th & 7 at AUB 36, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:24ARK 4th & 15 at ARK 20, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:29ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 26, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:38AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:48AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:19AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:57AUB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:14ARK Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:54AUB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:03AUB Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:27AUB Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1310% → 11%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
10.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
10.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
10.9%
Ben Hicks sacked by Marlon Davidson for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 22 Ben Hicks fumbled, forced by Marlon Davidson, recovered by Aub Marlon Davidson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:5089% → 89%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
10.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 5 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+13
11.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 13 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
10.9%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4511% → 11%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
11.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete, broken up by Coynis Miller Jr.Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
11.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Mike Woods, broken up by Roger McCrearySimilar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
11.1%
Sam Loy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the Aub 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:4489% → 89%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+52
11.2%
Kam Martin run for 52 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
11.2%
Kam Martin run for 5 yds to the Ark 6Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
10.8%
Shaun Shivers run for 6 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:3811% → 11%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
10.9%
Boyd, Rakeem rush for 1 yard to the ARKANSAS20, PENALTY ARKANSAS illegal block (Harrell, Chase) 9 yards to the ARKANSAS10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+12
10.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 12 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
11.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Tyson Morris, broken up by Jeremiah DinsonSimilar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
11.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Devwah Whaley, broken up by Owen PappoeSimilar
Q1 10:02
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
11.0%
Sam Loy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the Aub 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2789% → 89%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
10.9%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
10.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Sal CannellaSimilar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+7
11.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
50
+6
10.9%
Joey Gatewood run for 6 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
10.7%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
10.8%
Joey Gatewood run for no gain to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-2
10.9%
Joey Gatewood run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5712% → 11%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
11.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
11.6%
Ben Hicks run for 2 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
11.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
11.4%
Sam Loy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the Aub 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 5:2589% → 90%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
11.0%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Aub 20Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-1
11.1%
Bo Nix sacked by McTelvin Agim for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 19Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+20
11.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 20 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
10.9%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+2
11.0%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+14
11.0%
Bo Nix run for 14 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
10.9%
Malik Miller run for 7 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
10.9%
Malik Miller run for 2 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+1
10.9%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
10.9%
Kam Martin run for 1 yd to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+7
11.0%
Kam Martin run for 7 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 2
OPP 26
0
11.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:51
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+44
9.8%
Anders Carlson 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1611% → 11%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
10.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 17 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
10.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-3
11.0%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-3
10.8%
Ben Hicks sacked by Marlon Davidson for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 11
OWN 41
+2
10.7%
Sam Loy pass intercepted Chandler Wooten return for 2 yds to the Ark 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10MISSED FG
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:4591% → 91%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
9.1%
Shaun Shivers run for 7 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+2
9.0%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
8.9%
Bo Nix run for 3 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
8.8%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
8.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-7
8.8%
Bo Nix sacked by Bumper Pool and T.J. Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+48
9.2%
Anders Carlson 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 4:5611% → 11%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
10.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
10.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 9 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
10.9%
Ben Hicks run for no gain to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+3
10.6%
Cheyenne O'Grady run for 3 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
10.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+8
11.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Tyson Morris for 8 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
11.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+3
11.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 3 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-2
11.3%
Ben Hicks sacked by Owen Pappoe for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
11.1%
Sam Loy punt for 33 yds, downed at the Aub 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4791% → 91%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
9.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony SchwartzSimilar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+5
9.2%
D.J. Williams run for 5 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
9.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Sal CannellaSimilar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
9.5%
Arryn Siposs punt for 48 yds, downed at the Ark 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 37 yds · 4:2911% → 14%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
10.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to T.J. Hammonds for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+9
10.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 9 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+7
10.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 7 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
11.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 8
50
+2
10.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+19
10.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Knox for 19 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
11.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
11.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 6
OPP 25
-1
11.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+44
13.7%
Connor Limpert 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3091% → 91%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
9.1%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 14:43
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+6
9.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 6 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+8
9.0%
Kam Martin run for 8 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
8.7%
Kam Martin run for no gain to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
9.2%
Arryn Siposs punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Treylon Burks at the Ark 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15FG
19 plays · 77 yds · 7:2310% → 11%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
9.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 11 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
9.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Knox for 8 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
9.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+5
9.8%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
9.8%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 38Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
9.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey Knox, broken up by Noah IgbinogheneSimilar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+13
9.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 13 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
10.2%
Treylon Burks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 13
OWN 48
-5
9.6%
Hicks, Ben pass complete to Boyd, Rakeem for 16 yards to the AUBURN36, PENALTY ARKANSAS illegal shift (Woods, Mike) 5 yards to the ARKANSAS43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 18
OWN 43
+5
9.4%
Ben Hicks run for 5 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 13
OPP 44
+23
9.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Treylon Burks for 8 yds to the ARKANSAS 44 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Daniel Thomas) to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
10.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 7 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
10.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+10
10.3%
Hicks, Ben pass incomplete to Burks, Treylon, PENALTY AUBURN holding (Davis, Javaris) 10 yards to the AUBURN12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
10.5%
Treylon Burks run for 2 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
10.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
10.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+28
11.0%
Connor Limpert 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:2191% → 98%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
8.7%
D.J. Williams run for 4 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+10
8.6%
D.J. Williams run for 10 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
7.9%
D.J. Williams run for 4 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+6
7.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 6 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
2.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 48 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.3%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted Javaris Davis return for no gain to the Aub 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD
2 plays · 56 yds · 0:0798% → 99%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+28
2.2%
Anthony Schwartz run for 28 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
1.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 28 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:431% → 1%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
0.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
0.9%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+10
0.7%
Hicks, Ben pass incomplete to Boyd, Rakeem, PENALTY AUBURN holding (Pappoe, Owen) 10 yards to the ARKANSAS42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
0.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Knox for 7 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+12
0.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 12 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
0.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
0.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey Knox, broken up by Roger McCrearySimilar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
0.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'Grady, broken up by Jamien SherwoodSimilar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
0.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Chase HarrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3699% → 99%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
1.3%
D.J. Williams run for 5 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
0.7%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds to the Aub 45 Bo Nix fumbled, forced by De'Jon Harris, recovered by Ark McTelvin AgimSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21TD
1 play · 45 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
2.9%
Cheyenne O'Grady 45 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Connor Limpert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:0798% → 100%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
1.7%
D.J. Williams run for 3 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
1.7%
D.J. Williams run for no gain to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+12
1.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 12 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
1.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 9 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+7
1.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Sal Cannella for 7 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
1.5%
D.J. Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+17
1.5%
Anthony Schwartz run for 2 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamario Bell) to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
0.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 15 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:240% → 0%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Treylon Burks, broken up by Christian TuttSimilar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Mike WoodsSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
0.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 20Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
0.3%
Sam Loy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Will Hastings at the Aub 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 4:14100% → 100%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
0.3%
Joey Gatewood run for 1 yd to the Aub 42Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+13
0.3%
Joey Gatewood run for 13 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
0.3%
D.J. Williams run for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
0.2%
D.J. Williams run for no gain to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
0.2%
Shaun Shivers run for 12 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
0.2%
Joey Gatewood pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
0.2%
D.J. Williams run for 6 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+17
0.2%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for 17 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
0.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 18Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
0.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Chase HarrellSimilar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+8
0.1%
Rakeem Boyd run for 8 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
0.1%
Sam Loy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Will Hastings at the Aub 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:52100% → 100%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
0.2%
Harold Joiner run for 5 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+13
0.1%
Harold Joiner run for 13 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
0.1%
Harold Joiner run for 9 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+6
0.1%
Joey Gatewood run for 6 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
0.1%
Harold Joiner run for 32 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:250% → 0%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
0.1%
T.J. Hammonds run for 3 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+1
0.1%
Ben Hicks run for 1 yd to the Ark 20 Ben Hicks fumbled, recovered by Aub Michael HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 21Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 22Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 12
OPP 22
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:19
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 48 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
-5.7
TD · Q3 0:14
Cheyenne O'Grady 45 Yd pass from Ben Hicks (Connor Limpert Kick)
+2.3
FG · Q1 0:51
Anders Carlson 44 yd FG GOOD
-1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com