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ALA

Alabama 47 at Texas A&M 28

TA&M
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the TexAM 33 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:28: Najee Harris 16 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — ALA win probability +4.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Seth Small 32 Yd Field Goal — TA&M win probability +4.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:35: Henry Ruggs III 33 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — ALA win probability +5.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:06: Jalen Wydermyer 25 Yd pass from Kellen Mond , (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +7.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:02: Brian Robinson Jr. 2 Yd Run (Joseph Bulovas PAT blocked) — ALA win probability +4.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 1:09TA&M 4th & 16 at TA&M 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:12TA&M 4th & 8 at ALA 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−3.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:49ALA 4th & 5 at TA&M 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−3.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:17TA&M 4th & 21 at TA&M 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−2.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:53ALA 4th & 9 at TA&M 9, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:19TA&M 4th & 9 at TA&M 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:42ALA 4th & 10 at TA&M 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:05TA&M 4th & 12 at TA&M 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:30TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 24, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:48ALA 4th & 9 at TA&M 41, up 19
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:09TA&M 4th & 10 at ALA 47, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 6:57TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:41ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:24ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:28ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:35ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:06TA&M Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:02ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:30ALA Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:48TA&M Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 8:0213% → 19%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.8%
Kellen Mond run for 4 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
13.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 5 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
13.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
13.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 4 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
14.0%
Isaiah Spiller run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
50
+1
14.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the Alab 49Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+11
14.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 11 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
14.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 5 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+1
15.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+4
15.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for 4 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
15.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 14 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
16.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Patrick Surtain II) to the Alab 9Similar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 5
OPP 9
+4
16.4%
Spiller, Isaiah rush for 2 yards to the ALABAMA7, PENALTY ALABAMA offside (Jennings, Anfernee) 4 yards to the ALABAMA5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 12
OPP 16
+7
16.7%
Kellen Mond run for 7 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+8
17.0%
Kellen Mond run for 8 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.0%
Kellen Mond 1 Yd Run (Seth Small Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:0982% → 82%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
18.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for 3 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+11
18.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 11 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
18.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
19.0%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+7
19.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 7 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
19.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 4 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+10
19.8%
Najee Harris run for 10 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
19.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
20.1%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+31
18.1%
Jaylen Waddle 31 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3019% → 19%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney DavisSimilar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
19.1%
Kellen Mond run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 21Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-2
19.1%
Kellen Mond sacked by Justin Eboigbe for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 19Similar
Q1 1:09
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+15
19.3%
Braden Mann punt for 53 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 15 yds to the Alab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 0:4381% → 84%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
18.7%
Tagovailoa, Tua pass incomplete to Jeudy, Jerry, PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Blades, Elijah) 10 yards to the TEXASAM47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
18.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for no gain to the TexAM 47Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
18.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 0:24
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+47
16.0%
DeVonta Smith 47 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 3:0917% → 21%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
16.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 31 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
17.8%
Isaiah Spiller run for 2 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-5
17.8%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Isaiah Spiller) to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+14
17.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 14 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
18.4%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney DavisSimilar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
18.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for no gain to the Alab 33Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+17
17.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 17 yds to the Alab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
19.0%
Kellen Mond run for 2 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
19.3%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
18.7%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Kendrick RogersSimilar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
20.6%
Seth Small 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:1981% → 82%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
19.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+13
19.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 13 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
19.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 10 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
19.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 15 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
19.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 23Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+7
19.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 7 yds to the TexAM 16Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
20.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+35
17.8%
Joseph Bulovas 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 2:3118% → 18%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
18.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 22Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-4
18.0%
Kellen Mond sacked by Terrell Lewis for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 18Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-4
17.6%
Kellen Mond sacked by Christian Barmore for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 14Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+43
17.6%
Braden Mann punt for 48 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 43 yds to the TexAM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:4783% → 88%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
16.7%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the TexAM 16Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
16.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+16
12.5%
Najee Harris 16 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:1113% → 13%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.3%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney DavisSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
13.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the TexAM 26 Isaiah Spiller fumbled, forced by Shyheim Carter, recovered by Alab Xavier McKinneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10INT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:1288% → 89%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
12.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 7 yds to the TexAM 19Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 3
OPP 19
0
12.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the TexAM 19Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+5
12.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 5 yds to the TexAM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
12.3%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 15Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+2
12.3%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the TexAM 13Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+16
11.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass intercepted Demani Richardson return for 16 yds to the TexAM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11END OF HALF
13 plays · 69 yds · 2:0013% → 17%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
12.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 5 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+10
12.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 10 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
12.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Isaiah SpillerSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+24
13.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 9 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Anfernee Jennings) to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
13.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 11 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
14.4%
Mond, Kellen pass incomplete to Davis, Quartney, PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Green, Carson) 10 yards to the ALABAMA44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+3
13.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 3 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 17
OPP 41
+11
12.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 11 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+15
12.4%
Mond, Kellen pass incomplete, PENALTY ALABAMA personal foul (Barmore, Christian) 15 yards to the ALABAMA15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
12.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Isaiah SpillerSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+32
17.0%
Seth Small 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:5885% → 88%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
15.2%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
15.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+12
15.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 12 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
15.1%
Najee Harris run for 11 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+26
15.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 26 yds to the TexAM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
14.8%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Aaron Hansford for a loss of 10 yards to the TexAM 15Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+11
14.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Miller Forristall for 11 yds to the TexAM 4Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
14.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Alex Leatherwood) to the TexAM 9Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
15.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q3 10:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
11.7%
Joseph Bulovas 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3213% → 12%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 4 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
12.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney DavisSimilar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-3
11.9%
Kellen Mond sacked by Terrell Lewis for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 26Similar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+28
11.5%
Braden Mann punt for 57 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 28 yds to the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:4290% → 96%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
9.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
9.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 10 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
9.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (Tua Tagovailoa) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 15
50
+12
9.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 12 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+5
9.4%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the TexAM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
4.0%
Henry Ruggs III 33 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:216% → 13%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+20
5.6%
Kellen Mond run for 20 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
6.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
50
+10
6.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Trevon Diggs) to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
4.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
4.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 15 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
5.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney DavisSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
12.8%
Jalen Wydermyer 25 Yd pass from Kellen Mond , (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:1991% → 91%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
9.5%
Robinson Jr., Brian rush for 15 yards to the ALABAMA41, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Forristall, Miller) 10 yards to the ALABAMA16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+23
9.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 23 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
8.8%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
8.6%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
8.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
8.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
8.2%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the TexAM 48Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
8.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 10
OPP 48
+10
9.1%
Skyler DeLong punt for 36 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 10 yds to the TexAM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:3610% → 10%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
10.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 14 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
10.6%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Kendrick Rogers TEXAS A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kendrick Rogers) to the TexAM 21Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 25
OWN 21
0
9.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jacob KibodiSimilar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 25
OWN 21
+13
9.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 13 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+42
9.6%
Braden Mann punt for 41 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 42 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:5892% → 98%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
7.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
7.6%
Najee Harris run for 15 yds to the TexAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
6.5%
Najee Harris run for 14 yds to the TexAM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
6.3%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the TexAM 2Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. 2 Yd Run (Joseph Bulovas PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19PUNT TD
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:313% → 1%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
2.5%
Kellen Mond sacked by Anfernee Jennings for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 22Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
2.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+2
2.2%
Kellen Mond run for 2 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+2
0.5%
Tyrell Shavers 2 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:391% → 5%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.5%
Jacob Kibodi run for 3 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
0.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 6 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
0.5%
Jacob Kibodi run for 5 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
0.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney DavisSimilar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
0.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jacob Kibodi for 7 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+36
0.4%
Kellen Mond run for 36 yds to the Alab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
4.6%
Jalen Wydermyer 18 Yd pass from Kellen Mond , (K. Mond Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q4 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
4.5%
Mond, Kellen pass attempt failed, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference 2 yards to the ALABAMA1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:5298% → 98%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
2.2%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+25
2.1%
Najee Harris run for 25 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
1.9%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 46Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+5
1.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 5 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
1.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
1.6%
Skyler DeLong punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:382% → 2%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+22
2.2%
Kellen Mond run for 22 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
2.3%
Kellen Mond run for 8 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+5
2.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 5 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
2.3%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
2.3%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jacob KibodiSimilar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
2.3%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
2.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23END OF GAME
8 plays · 19 yds · 4:0899% → 99%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
1.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+8
1.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
1.2%
Offsetting Penalties, Personal Foul, DeVonta Smith Ejected Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
1.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
1.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
1.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 12 yds to the TexAM 28 ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jedrick Wills Jr.) to the TexAM 43Similar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
0.8%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+5
0.8%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the TexAM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:06
Jalen Wydermyer 25 Yd pass from Kellen Mond , (Seth Small KICK)
+7.6
TD · Q3 7:35
Henry Ruggs III 33 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)
-5.4
TD · Q2 5:28
Najee Harris 16 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)
-4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com