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MSST

Mississippi State 10 at Tennessee 20

TENN
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:06 · Tucker Day punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 40 , Marquez Callaway returns for 13 yds to the Tenn 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Home team on offense−0.1Pregame prior−7.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 7:46: Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 07:46 — TENN win probability +7.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:12: Brent Cimaglia 22 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +7.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:27: Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +20.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:27: Scott Goodman kickoff for 61 yds , Ty Chandler return for 14 yds to the Tenn 49 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive holding (Solon Page III) to the Tenn 9 — TENN win probability +8.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:35: Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 39 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +13.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 6MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:06MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:40MSST 4th & 12 at TENN 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00TENN 4th & 5 at MSST 32, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00TENN 4th & 2 at TENN 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:36MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:12TENN 4th & 2 at MSST 5, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.4%−1.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−11.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:57TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−2.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:46MSST 4th & 25 at MSST 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−5.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00TENN 4th & 9 at MSST 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:04MSST 4th & 4 at TENN 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.1%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:16MSST 4th & 15 at TENN 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSST made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 4:56TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 8:27MSST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:35TENN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
42.2%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+6
42.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 6 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 14
-2
42.2%
Tommy Stevens sacked by Darrell Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 12Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 12
0
42.2%
Tucker Day punt for 34 yds, downed at the MisSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2INT
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+28
43.1%
Brian Maurer pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 28 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
43.2%
Brian Maurer run for 5 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+1
43.2%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the MisSt 12Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
43.1%
Brian Maurer pass intercepted, touchback. Cameron Dantzler return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
43.3%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-6
43.3%
Tommy Stevens sacked by Matthew Butler for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
43.5%
Tommy Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+13
43.6%
Tucker Day punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 40 , Marquez Callaway returns for 13 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 4:3144% → 50%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
44.2%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+2
44.3%
Tim Jordan run for 2 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+16
44.1%
Brian Maurer pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 16 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
44.6%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
44.6%
Tim Jordan run for no gain to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+16
44.4%
Brian Maurer pass complete to Josh Palmer for 16 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
44.7%
Tim Jordan run for 7 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+15
50.1%
Tim Jordan run for 15 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5INT
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:0051% → 53%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.8%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
48.5%
Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
48.5%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for 9 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
48.3%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 11 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
47.8%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+10
47.8%
Tommy Stevens run for 10 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+24
47.3%
Tommy Stevens pass intercepted Kenneth George Jr. return for 24 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1451% → 52%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
51.4%
Brian Maurer pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
51.3%
Eric Gray run for 5 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+1
51.7%
Brian Maurer pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 1 yd to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
51.5%
Joe Doyle punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 7:0848% → 46%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
52.0%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 17 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.7%
Tommy Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
51.8%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
52.4%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 19 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
50.6%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+9
50.3%
Tommy Stevens run for 9 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
50.1%
Isaiah Zuber run for 4 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+2
49.9%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+6
50.1%
Tommy Stevens run for 6 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
49.3%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-4
49.2%
Tommy Stevens sacked by Bryce Thompson for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 12
OPP 33
0
51.0%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q2 7:40
4TH & 12
OPP 33
+51
53.9%
Jace Christmann 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8INT
10 plays · 68 yds · 0:0053% → 55%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
53.2%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+3
53.2%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+23
52.5%
Brian Maurer run for 23 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
55.0%
Jauan Jennings run for 22 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
56.2%
Tim Jordan run for 3 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+13
56.3%
Brian Maurer run for 13 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
56.3%
Tim Jordan run for no gain to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
56.3%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the MisSt 17Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
55.3%
Brian Maurer pass intercepted, touchback. Brian Cole II return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
56.3%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+20
56.2%
Tommy Stevens run for 10 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
54.5%
Tommy Stevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 11
OWN 42
-5
55.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 16
OWN 37
+14
56.3%
Tommy Stevens pass intercepted Trevon Flowers return for 14 yds to the TENNESSEE 49 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10FG
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:5959% → 64%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
59.4%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+4
58.9%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
58.7%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+49
63.8%
Brent Cimaglia 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.0%
Tim Jordan run for 6 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
63.9%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 0
+6
61.7%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
63.2%
Dominick Wood-Anderson run for 5 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
65.0%
Eric Gray run for 2 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+1
64.0%
Tim Jordan run for 1 yd to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
62.5%
Joe Doyle punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
63.9%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
64.1%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
65.1%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
66.0%
Tucker Day punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 3:4668% → 76%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
67.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 37Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+9
66.5%
Ty Chandler run for 9 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+41
67.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 41 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
69.7%
Tim Jordan run for no gain to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
69.7%
Tim Jordan run for 1 yd to the MisSt 12Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+7
68.4%
Tim Jordan run for 7 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
75.5%
Brent Cimaglia 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.3%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
74.5%
Garrett Shrader run for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
73.8%
Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
73.4%
Garrett Shrader pass intercepted Nigel Warrior return for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
77.2%
Tim Jordan run for no gain to the Tenn 35Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
77.0%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Lee Autry and Fabien Lovett for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 30Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+5
75.5%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q3 4:57
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
75.0%
Joe Doyle punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
76.7%
JaVonta Payton run for 11 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
75.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+1
77.3%
Nick Gibson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 14
OWN 35
-7
77.6%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Aubrey Solomon for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 28 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Garrett Shrader) to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 21
OWN 28
+1
78.8%
Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 2:46
4TH & 20
OWN 29
-5
79.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Aaron Brule) to the MisSt 24Similar
Q3 2:46
4TH & 25
OWN 24
0
79.5%
Tucker Day punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:3281% → 81%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
80.8%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
81.7%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+15
81.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
83.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
50
-3
83.0%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+4
81.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 4 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
80.8%
Joe Doyle punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 3:3717% → 43%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+36
83.3%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 21 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, roughing passer (Henry To'o To'o) to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
80.2%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
82.8%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell, broken up by Nigel WarriorSimilar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+11
83.5%
Garrett Shrader run for 11 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+12
81.5%
Garrett Shrader run for 12 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+18
79.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 18 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
77.5%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Tenn 17Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
56.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 5:4469% → 95%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
68.6%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+15
69.1%
Ty Chandler run for 15 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
69.8%
Tim Jordan run for 7 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+12
72.0%
Tim Jordan run for 12 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
72.9%
Tim Jordan run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+2
73.2%
Tim Jordan run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+9
79.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tim Jordan for 9 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
81.3%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+39
94.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 39 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20MISSED FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 2:196% → 3%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
93.6%
Garrett Shrader run for 14 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
92.1%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Darrell Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 37 Garrett Shrader fumbled, recovered by MisSt Darryl Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+8
93.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 8 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+15
94.4%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 15 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
93.7%
Garrett Shrader run for 14 yds to the Tenn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
92.8%
Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell, broken up by Nigel WarriorSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+13
93.2%
Garrett Shrader run for 13 yds to the Tenn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-7
92.8%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Kivon Bennett for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 20Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 17
OPP 20
-5
95.2%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Darel Middleton for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 25Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 22
OPP 25
+7
96.1%
Garrett Shrader run for 7 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+36
96.8%
Jace Christmann 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:27
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
-20.9
TD · Q4 2:35
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 39 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+13.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:27
Scott Goodman kickoff for 61 yds , Ty Chandler return for 14 yds to the Tenn 49 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive holding (Solon Page III) to the Tenn 9
+8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com